Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[trebor204]

The results are out!


http://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr2015app/home.html

[adma]

The results are out!


http://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr2015app/home.html

I haven't the time to go through everything, but judging from my first lick at the spoon the NDP in Toronto did much better in advance/special polls (winning at least 3 seats!) than on e-day...

[Hatman 🍁]

Some sneak peak maps:

Vancouver:


Toronto:


Montreal:


Ottawa:


Shading is based on population density; ties were broken randomly.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What is with the deep blue bits of the Island of Montreal?

[Hatman 🍁]

What is with the deep blue bits of the Island of Montreal?

Jews.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What is with the deep blue bits of the Island of Montreal?

Jews.

Thought so.

[CultySmother]

Why is the shading based on population density?

[Hatman 🍁]

Why is the shading based on population density?

Not my idea. My colleague made the maps.

I went on a Twitter spree this morning with some cleaner maps. I covered most of the metro areas in the country.

[platypeanArchcow]

Why is the shading based on population density?

Not my idea. My colleague made the maps.

I like it!  Gives a sense of where there are actually votes vs. mostly empty space.  Although the granularity of the map often gives some idea of this as well.

[the506]

I got Quebec and the east coast up on election-atlas.ca. Rest will come tomorrow.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/

[MaxQue]

I got Quebec and the east coast up on election-atlas.ca. Rest will come tomorrow.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/

Ugh. My polling station voted for Bloc.

[Krago]

There were 18 ridings where the party that won the most votes on election day lost because of advance poll and special ballots:

Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - CONS
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - CONS
Kitchener--Conestoga:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - CONS
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - CONS

Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - NDP

Kenora:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - NDP, FINAL - LIB

Calgary Centre:  ADV - LIB, EDAY - CONS, FINAL - LIB
Edmonton Mill Woods:  ADV - LIB, EDAY - CONS, FINAL - LIB

Regina--Lewvan:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - CONS, FINAL - NDP
Kootenay--Columbia:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - CONS, FINAL - NDP

Beloeil--Chambly:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - NDP
Hochelaga:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - NDP
Jonquière:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - NDP
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - NDP
Salaberry--Suroît:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - NDP
Trois-Rivières:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - NDP
Burnaby South:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - NDP


There were an additional 35 ridings where the where the party that won the most votes prior to election day lost the election:

Fundy Royal:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Louis-Hébert:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Mount Royal:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Hastings--Lennox and Addington:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
St. Catharines:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
York Centre:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Kildonan--St. Paul:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Kelowna--Lake Country:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB

Elmwood--Transcona:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - NDP, FINAL - NDP

Huron--Bruce:  ADV - LIB, EDAY - CONS, FINAL - CONS
Milton:  ADV - LIB, EDAY - CONS, FINAL - CONS
Calgary Confederation:  ADV - LIB, EDAY - CONS, FINAL - CONS

Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - BQ, FINAL - BQ
Joliette:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - BQ, FINAL - BQ
La Pointe-de-l'Île:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - BQ, FINAL - BQ
Mirabel:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - BQ, FINAL - BQ
Rivière-du-Nord:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - BQ, FINAL - BQ
Terrebonne:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - BQ, FINAL - BQ

St. John's East :  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Thérèse-De Blainville:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Laurentides--Labelle:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Québec:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Davenport:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Niagara Centre:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Ottawa Centre:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Parkdale--High Park:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Toronto--Danforth:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Burnaby North--Seymour:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - LIB
Surrey Centre:  ADV - NDP, EDAY - LIB, FINAL – LIB

[Hatman 🍁]

That Green poll in Le Sud Ouest is definitely a tabulation error. Not sure who really won it though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - NDP

Kenora:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - NDP, FINAL - LIB

hahahaha

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Love D-M-CR

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's our national map: http://maps.grahampressey.ca/2015/

Version 1.0, so it's missing some features (like riding boundaries). I didn't design the map, but provided some oversight.

[the506]

There was also an advance poll in Calgary-Forest Lawn where it says the Libertarians were first and Communists second. Uh, yeah.

[Krago]

If all the e-day ballots had been sucked by an interdimensional wormhole into a Borg Array, the results would have been:
Lib 161, Cons 109, NDP 63, BQ 4, Green 1

If on the other hand a wide variety of canines had eaten all the advance and special ballots, then the results would have been:
Lib 194, Cons 99, NDP 34, BQ 10, Green 1

[Zanas]

There seems to be two separate clusters of NDP support in Longueuil. I get the Western one, with various campuses and Metro line #4 going straight to UqàM, but I don't really know what's in the Eastern one ? Or maybe it's due to riding borders and candidate personality ?

[the506]

Alright, everything's up.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/

[Hatman 🍁]

My partner and I single (couple?) handily put the NDP in 2nd place in our poll (Ottawa South #17):

McGuitny (Lib) 148
Brown (NDP) 31
Balkissoon (Cons) 30
Redins (Grn) 16

[CultySmother]

A huge thank you to every one of you! Your generosity of time amazes me.

[Krago]

Central Toronto - 2015


Central Toronto - 2011

[Boston Bread]

Nelson, BC really is an NDP stronghold. 60-70% there.
The 70%+ conservative areas in Mount Royal are also whack.

My poll in Waterloo:
65% Liberal
17% NDP
15% CPC

[2952-0-0]

The Liberals did a great job increasing turnout in Thorncliffe Park, with its overwhelmingly lower income Muslim demographic.

Of course, they were greatly helped by Harper's desperate Muslim baiting, which will haunt his party for years to come.