Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[the506]

Nelson, BC really is an NDP stronghold. 60-70% there.

The Greens won some polls in Nelson back in 2000. Back when most people didn't even know there was a Green Party.

My poll in downtown Fredericton:
Liberal - 46%
Green - 30%
NDP - 13%
Conservative - 11%

[Linus Van Pelt]

Great work, all!

[DC Al Fine]

My poll in Halifax West resembles a rural Alberta poll

[Krago]

North York/Scarborough - 2015


North York/Scarborough - 2011

[Krago]

Peel/Etobicoke - 2015


Peel/Etobicoke - 2011

[Krago]

Halton - 2015


Halton - 2011

[Krago]

Hamilton/Brant - 2015


Hamilton/Brant - 2011

[Krago]

Waterloo Region/Guelph - 2015


Waterloo Region/Guelph - 2011

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP needs to lobby for some sort of Parkdale-Dufferin seat. Seems to be the most left wing part of Toronto if it were one riding (even more so than Toronto-Danforth). (2 of the 3 wards Olivia Chow won in 2014 cover this hypothetical seat). Oddly, Parkdale used to be a Liberal stronghold (went Liberal in the 1990 provincial election).

Also, the Tories should lobby for a super wealthy York Mills-Bathurst seat. The Laurentian elite deserve their own gerrymandered riding!

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, a Wilson Heights/Armourdale district would've gone Tory too, I think.

[Krago]

[Krago]

[Hatman 🍁]

You can easily gerrymander an NDP riding in Quebec City by lumping the Downtown with Limoilou. (Quebec-Limoilou?)

[Krago]

[Krago]

[Hatman 🍁]

Bell Island looks like it had a relatively low swing against the NDP...

[HorseChops]

Why is the shading based on population density?

Not my idea. My colleague made the maps.

I like it!  Gives a sense of where there are actually votes vs. mostly empty space.  Although the granularity of the map often gives some idea of this as well.

The granularity alone should suffice.

With some exceptions for very small isolated communities, the populations of geographical polls are roughly equal. Shading by population density adds nothing to the informative character of the map, and makes it MUCH harder to study trends in remote and rural areas. (Look at Nunavut, Labrador, Nunavik, Churchill River, etc).

To each his own, but this is not a design choice I would have made.

[King of Kensington]

Did the Tories get over 50% of the vote in any Ontario county?

Lanark?  SDG?  Elgin?

[Krago]

Did the Tories get over 50% of the vote in any Ontario county?

Lanark?  SDG?  Elgin?

Excluding advance and special ballots (e-day only), here's the Tory Top 10:

51.9% - Lanark
50.9% - Huron
49.3% - Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry
48.4% - Elgin
47.3% - Leeds and Grenville
45.8% - Dufferin
45.6% - Grey
45.5% - Oxford
45.5% - York
44.7% - Halton


Here's the Lib list:

55.7% - Prescott and Russell
53.4% - Frontenac
53.4% - Ottawa
52.8% - Nipissing
52.7% - Toronto
51.4% - Peel
50.9% - Prince Edward
47.4% - Lennox and Addington
47.1% - Thunder Bay
46.3% - Hastings


and in third place, yet again, the NDP:

47.6% - Manitoulin
43.1% - Essex
40.6% - Timiskaming
39.1% - Cochrane
37.6% - Sudbury
37.4% - Kenora
36.9% - Rainy River
32.8% - Greater Sudbury / Grand Sudbury
30.4% - Lambton
27.5% - Hamilton


LAMBTON??  Yes, Lambton.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the NDP did well in Sarnia. Just not the rural parts of Lambton. Funny that it's ahead of Hamilton.

[Smid]

Great work, Krago!

[adma]

Oddly, Parkdale used to be a Liberal stronghold (went Liberal in the 1990 provincial election).

Provincially, it was more a Tony Ruprecht stronghold than a Liberal stronghold.  And federally (where the Stan Haidasz/Jesse Flis Polish Liberal machine ruled), the NDP was more of a third-leg force until the PCs collapsed in 1993; thereafter they rose as the second-force challenger through the Alexa years, a position consolidated w/Peggy Nash...

[King of Kensington]

Beaches-East York was historically stronger for the NDP than Parkdale-High Park, but over the last decade P-HP has become a stronger NDP area.

[Krago]

[Krago]