New poll hype thread

[Gass3268]

Information on PPP's NC poll:

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My guess this means they had some contract work to do over the weekend.

[heatcharger]

It's a voter file poll too. So it's different than media polls.

Yeah, I'm interested to see how the results of this looks. This might be the right way to do it in the future. Also, there is a Spanish speaking option in case anyone is curious.

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If you look at other pollsters, like say PPP, only 11% of their responders were 18-29. The FL voter file shows that actually 17% of the electorate is 18-29. Sure, PPP will use weights, but that's making guesses about how the other 6% will vote.

The top line numbers for this poll will be important, but I'm far more interested in the crosstabs.

Also, I wonder what this means for the future of CBS/NYT polls.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

It's a voter file poll too. So it's different than media polls.

Yeah, I'm interested to see how the results of this looks. This might be the right way to do it in the future. Also, there is a Spanish speaking option in case anyone is curious.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If you look at other pollsters, like say PPP, only 11% of their responders were 18-29. The FL voter file shows that actually 17% of the electorate is 18-29. Sure, PPP will use weights, but that's making guesses about how the other 6% will vote.

The top line numbers for this poll will be important, but I'm far more interested in the crosstabs.

Also, I wonder what this means for the future of CBS/NYT polls.

Turnout among younger voters tends to be lower (especially when both major party candidates are so unpopular, so this doesn't seem unreasonable. It's not Reuters, you have to grant it that

[dspNY]

The Upshot will publish a similar poll of NC later this week so it will be interesting to see how they compare with PPP

[Cruzcrew]

[/quote]

If you look at other pollsters, like say PPP, only 11% of their responders were 18-29. The FL voter file shows that actually 17% of the electorate is 18-29. Sure, PPP will use weights, but that's making guesses about how the other 6% will vote.

The top line numbers for this poll will be important, but I'm far more interested in the crosstabs.

Also, I wonder what this means for the future of CBS/NYT polls.
[/quote]

This is the last election that there will be CBS/NYT polls according to the NYT due to CBS backing out of polling

[F_S_USATN]

Elon Poll ‏@elonpoll  14h14 hours ago
We'll be releasing numbers around 10am tomorrowtoday: Governor, Senate + #HB2. Presidential numbers on Tuesday morning

In case you havent had enough NC polls

[KingSweden]

Elon Poll ‏@elonpoll  14h14 hours ago
We'll be releasing numbers around 10am tomorrowtoday: Governor, Senate + #HB2. Presidential numbers on Tuesday morning

In case you havent had enough NC polls

There are never enough NC polls!

[heatcharger]

New Georgia poll coming from Monmouth later today. I'll say Trump +3.

[elcorazon]

New Georgia poll coming from Monmouth later today. I'll say Trump +3.

I'll say Trump + 4

[Wiz in Wis]

New Georgia poll coming from Monmouth later today. I'll say Trump +3.

I'll say Trump + 4

Trump + 7

[KingSweden]

T + 5

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Elon Poll ‏@elonpoll  14h14 hours ago
We'll be releasing numbers around 10am tomorrowtoday: Governor, Senate + #HB2. Presidential numbers on Tuesday morning

In case you havent had enough NC polls

Did they release those numbers yet?

[Wiz in Wis]

Elon Poll ‏@elonpoll  14h14 hours ago
We'll be releasing numbers around 10am tomorrowtoday: Governor, Senate + #HB2. Presidential numbers on Tuesday morning

In case you havent had enough NC polls

Did they release those numbers yet?

Yes, Ross +1, McCrory +3, HB2 disapprove 60/40

[Devout Centrist]

Elon Poll ‏@elonpoll  14h14 hours ago
We'll be releasing numbers around 10am tomorrowtoday: Governor, Senate + #HB2. Presidential numbers on Tuesday morning

In case you havent had enough NC polls

Did they release those numbers yet?

Yes, Ross +1, McCrory +3, HB2 disapprove 60/40

Ross leading, but McCrory winning? What?

[Doimper]

New Georgia poll coming from Monmouth later today. I'll say Trump +3.

Dang, you nailed it.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

New Georgia poll coming from Monmouth later today. I'll say Trump +3.

Give this person a cookie for being spot on.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/777921497558093825

Monmouth's Patrick Murray says Hillary's numbers are recovering.

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[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/777921497558093825

Monmouth's Patrick Murray says Hillary's numbers are recovering.

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And in https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/777917928264073216 he says:

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[KingSweden]

Surprised pollsters give that much info im advance.

[Xing]

I don't get accolades for getting Florida right?

Anyway, this could just mean that the numbers for Hillary this week are a bit better. I wouldn't assume that they're back to where they were in August.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I don't get accolades for getting Florida right?

Anyway, this could just mean that the numbers for Hillary this week are a bit better. I wouldn't assume that they're back to where they were in August.

Give this person 1000 cookies for being right! Lol

But yeah I'm glad to see Hillary's numbers improving. Last week was brutal.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't get accolades for getting Florida right?

Anyway, this could just mean that the numbers for Hillary this week are a bit better. I wouldn't assume that they're back to where they were in August.

Yeah, it would be very surprising if they were back to that level.  But if this is true (and it's also an idea supported by the Gallup favorability numbers posted a couple of days ago), it would indicate that Trump's recent surge has peaked, and the numbers are moving back toward Clinton.  How fast and how much?  Who knows.

IMO the key lesson here is that polls are going to continue to fluctuate until Election Day.  No matter which side you favor: don't panic, and don't get overconfident.  Steer the <ahem> middle course.

[Gass3268]

I don't get accolades for getting Florida right?

Anyway, this could just mean that the numbers for Hillary this week are a bit better. I wouldn't assume that they're back to where they were in August.

I'd be okay with late August!

[Xing]

I don't get accolades for getting Florida right?

Anyway, this could just mean that the numbers for Hillary this week are a bit better. I wouldn't assume that they're back to where they were in August.

Yeah, it would be very surprising if they were back to that level.  But if this is true (and it's also an idea supported by the Gallup favorability numbers posted a couple of days ago), it would indicate that Trump's recent surge has peaked, and the numbers are moving back toward Clinton.  How fast and how much?  Who knows.

IMO the key lesson here is that polls are going to continue to fluctuate until Election Day.  No matter which side you favor: don't panic, and don't get overconfident.  Steer the <ahem> middle course.

That's quite true, and also why I'm surprised that Sabato changed his map so much yesterday. I guess he believes that the race has fundamentally changed, but it seemed a bit excessive, especially since he already changed a few ratings just days beforehand.

[dspNY]

Elon Poll ‏@elonpoll  14h14 hours ago
We'll be releasing numbers around 10am tomorrowtoday: Governor, Senate + #HB2. Presidential numbers on Tuesday morning

In case you havent had enough NC polls

Did they release those numbers yet?

Yes, Ross +1, McCrory +3, HB2 disapprove 60/40

Ross leading, but McCrory winning? What?

Elon's likely voter screen is all messed up. It reads:

"In order for a respondent to qualify as a likely voter, they had to say they planned to vote in November, that they were absolutely certain they planned to vote and that they knew the precinct where they would vote."

In a state like North Carolina with lots of new transplants from other states, this removes a lot of certain voters from urban and suburban areas.

We could see something like Trump +5 LV, Clinton +5 RV with that kind of screen