Remaining votes (Update: about 500K ballots left to count nationwide)

[jaichind]

The following states have certified their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
AR          50.7%                    52.6%          1.9%
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
GA          59.0%                    58.8%         -0.2%
HI           44.2%                    41.7%         -2.5%
KY           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
MI           64.7%                    64.5%        -0.2%
NV          56.4%                    57.1%          0.7%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

[ApatheticAustrian]

obviously not a low-turnout election over the board.

also not in the mid-west if those MI numbers stand for anything...just maybe different voters coming out.

[2016]

I think CA has shifted 1% to the Left since election night.  So as badly Trump did on election night in CA the mail in votes were even worse for him.

I think it's more the Provisional Ballots.

[jaichind]

obviously not a low-turnout election over the board.

also not in the mid-west if those MI numbers stand for anything...just maybe different voters coming out.

Turnout shifts seems to be weakly correlated with race.  The higher the percentage of the state to contain AAs the more likely there was a drop in turnout and vice versa.

The top 5 AA states/districts by population share are

            Turnout change
DC           -1.3%
MS           -4.4% (my current estimate)
LA           -0.4%
GA           -0.2%
MD          -1.4% (my current estimate)

The bottom 5 AA states/districts by population share are

            Turnout change
MT           +1.8 % (my current estimate)
VT           +2.8%
ID            -0.1%
ME           +1.8%
ND           -0.2%

Does seem to fit the narrative of lower AA turnout due to Obama not being on the ballot.

[FrancoAgo]

"Does seem to fit the narrative of lower AA turnout due to Obama not being on the ballot."

I don't think this is statistically true

[jaichind]

"Does seem to fit the narrative of lower AA turnout due to Obama not being on the ballot."

I don't think this is statistically true

Well, exit poll does show that the share of the AA vote as a % of the electorate fell from 13% in 2012 to 12% in 2016

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        64.50 million     48.12%
Trump         62.37 million     46.53%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.53 million     48.22%
Trump         63.09 million     46.43%

For a Clinton lead of 1.79%.  

I guess the claims that Clinton will win by 2.0% are not as wild as I originally thought.  I thought it might stabilize around 1.6% but I guess not.

Also, 65.53 million votes for Clinton is getting close to the 65.92 million of Obama 2012.

Big chunks of the votes outstanding are CA OH WA AZ CO and NY.  Not as sure but there still might be a lot for IL and PA.

[/]

So if Clinton is expected to win by 1.79% and she's currently up by 1.56%, then that means she is expected to gain 0.23% over her current margin. That's actually the exact margin of Florida's Democratic trend, so if everything goes as expected, Florida will end up trending Republican.

[jaichind]

So if Clinton is expected to win by 1.79% and she's currently up by 1.56%, then that means she is expected to gain 0.23% over her current margin. That's actually the exact margin of Florida's Democratic trend, so if everything goes as expected, Florida will end up trending Republican.

Yep.  I was thinking the same thing as I was computing this set of numbers.

[The Mikado]

Chances that Clinton's vote total exceeds Obama 2012?

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        64.64 million     48.16%
Trump         62.41 million     46.49%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.56 million     48.24%
Trump         63.07 million     46.41%

For a Clinton lead of 1.83%. 

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        64.68 million     48.14%
Trump         62.44 million     46.47%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.57 million     48.22%
Trump         63.08 million     46.39%

For a Clinton lead of 1.83%.

[jaichind]

Chances that Clinton's vote total exceeds Obama 2012?

My current projection is  65.57 million votes for Clinton which is still some distance from 65.92 million of Obama 2012.  If anything my number most likely is an overestimate as many mail in votes and provincial ballots  might not get counted as a vote for President.  So most likely Clinton will get close but not hit Obama's number. 

If someone told me before the election that Clinton will hit Obama's total votes of 2012 I would have said that Clinton won for sure.  It seems that Clinton raked up a lot of useless votes in CA, AZ GA MA TX OR and WA.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Are we still waiting on any more from CA?

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        64.88 million     48.17%
Trump         62.51 million     46.41%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.54 million     48.21%
Trump         63.02 million     46.36%

For a Clinton lead of 1.85%.

[jaichind]

Are we still waiting on any more from CA?

I think 500K more but most likely this is an overestimation since this include provisional votes many of which will not end up counting.  OH has around 190K more, AZ 120K more, WA around 150K more.  IL PA MD and NJ has a bunch more too but not sure how many.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.00 million     48.18%
Trump         62.58 million     46.38%

FL now officially trending GOP

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.58 million     48.22%
Trump         63.03 million     46.34%

For a Clinton lead of 1.88%.

[MT Treasurer]

Any chance New Mexico will have trended Republican when all the votes are in?

[jaichind]

Any chance New Mexico will have trended Republican when all the votes are in?

Using my projection they will miss it by 0.05%

[2016]

LA County did another Update today and Clinton netted another 89000 Votes or so which will push her lead to over 2.5 Mio nationwide. About 400K left in CA but we don't know how many Provisionals left in IL, NY, MD.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.21 million     48.20%
Trump         62.66 million     46.31%

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.57 million     48.22%
Trump         62.94 million     46.29%

For a Clinton lead of 1.93%.

Projected Trump vote falls below 63 million.  Based on this projection NM barely trends GOP.

[Nyvin]

A lot of states seem to be "trending" Republican in part because California produced a huge win for Hillary relative to the win it gave Obama.  I wonder what the trends would look like if California numbers were taken out for both 2012 and 2016.

It seems to be a combination of California and Texas both trending pretty heavily Democratic, and the other big states not really trending much at all (FL, NY, IL, and PA were all within a 1 point trend).

That made a lot of the smaller to mid-sized states seem to have a really big Republican trend, although some of them really did (Michigan and Missouri).

[jaichind]

The following states have certified (or all but in name) their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
AL           58.6%                    58.9%          0.3%
AK          58.7%                    61.4%          2.7%
AR          50.7%                    52.6%          1.9%
CT          61.3%                    64.0%          2.7%
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
GA          59.0%                    58.8%         -0.2%
HI           44.2%                    41.7%         -2.5%
ID           59.8%                    59.4%         -0.4%
KS           56.9%                    57.3%         0.4%
KY           55.7%                    58.7%         3.0%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
MA          65.9%                    66.8%          0.9%
MI           64.7%                    64.7%        -0.1%
MN          76.0%                    74.1%        -1.9%
NV          56.4%                    57.1%          0.7%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
NM          54.6%                    54.7%         0.1%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OH          64.5%                    62.8%        -1.7%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
RI           58.0%                    59.0%          1.0%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
TX          49.6%                     51.2%         1.6%
UT          55.5%                    56.8%          1.3%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

[2016]

Looks like CA has finished counting.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.25 million     48.19%
Trump         62.69 million     46.30%

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.55 million     48.25%
Trump         62.92 million     46.32%

For a Clinton lead of 1.93%.