Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

New poll:

75% of Austrians want to remain in the EU
21% favour AUXIT

That's a much higher support for remaining in the EU than in the past few years, when it dipped to as low as 60%.

http://diepresse.com/home/ausland/eu/5234546/OeGfEUmfrage_Bevoelkerung-will-klare-EUHaltung

[Kingpoleon]

What is the likelihood of a ÖVP-NEOS-Green coalition?

[ApatheticAustrian]

What is the likelihood of a ÖVP-NEOS-Green coalition?

not likely.

the numbers aren't there and the neos would be happy to prevent getting sacked form the parliament.

[Tender Branson]

What is the likelihood of a ÖVP-NEOS-Green coalition?

The chances are low, but it's doable under certain circumstances:

* NEOS would need to get Irmgard Griss on board to rise from their current 4-5% to around 7-8%.

* Kurz would need to get a significant amount of FPÖ-voters to get to 34-35%.

* And the Greens need to stabilize at around 9% and not lose any more votes to SPÖ and ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

All 300 Austrian imams to sign a common declaration next week in Vienna against Muslim extremism and terrorism:

https://derstandard.at/2000058848729/Oesterreichs-Imame-unterzeichnen-Deklaration

Good.

The Muslim communities need to do a lot more in weeding out their radical elements within.

Signed:



http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/oesterreich/politik/sn/artikel/imame-unterzeichneten-deklaration-gegen-extremismus-252022

Full text:

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[mgop]

wow ovp-green-neos would really be coalition from hell. just imagine that disgusting ulrike lunacek as something important, yuck. luckily that coalition is not possible, they don't have and will not have majority.

[Tender Branson]

wow ovp-green-neos would really be coalition from hell. just imagine that disgusting ulrike lunacek as something important, yuck. luckily that coalition is not possible, they don't have and will not have majority.

I disagree that Lunacek is "disgusting" and that it would be a coalition from "hell".

But I guess if Kurz wins the election with let's say 35%, SPÖ at 26%, FPÖ 22%, Greens 9% and NEOS 6% - then I believe that Kurz will opt for a coalition with the weakened FPÖ rather than a more unstable one with 2 coalition partners (Greens, NEOS).

[mgop]

lunacek is war crime defender, look haradinaj case...

[Tender Branson]

lunacek is war crime defender, look haradinaj case...

I'm not an expert for every (accused) war-criminal in the Balkan Wars, but I found this:

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[DavidB.]

The possibility of ÖVP-NEOS-Greens, however distinct, would be reason enough for me to ultimately vote FPÖ anyway, despite liking Kurz.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ federal committee has voted YES on the "criteria catalogue" (aimed primarily at the FPÖ) for future coalition talks and also voted YES on a party membership poll after the election to see if party members are OK with possible coalition talks or a final coalition contract.

http://derstandard.at/2000059282578/SPOe-Vorstand-beschloss-Koalitionsbedingungen-und-Urabstimmung

[Tender Branson]

The liberal NEOS are out with a first poster campaign ... in Vienna:

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[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ federal committee has voted YES on the "criteria catalogue" (aimed primarily at the FPÖ) for future coalition talks and also voted YES on a party membership poll after the election to see if party members are OK with possible coalition talks or a final coalition contract.

http://derstandard.at/2000059282578/SPOe-Vorstand-beschloss-Koalitionsbedingungen-und-Urabstimmung

Chancellor Kern also made a press statement, in which he said the former ambiguous SPÖ position on the FPÖ would have made the party subject to blackmail during the campaign and it's better that the SPÖ now has a clear position on the FPÖ going forward.



Interesting also that a major point in the SPÖ criteria catalogue is the introduction of an inheritance tax for assets of more than 1 million €, which is something the FPÖ (and the ÖVP) categorically oppose ...

http://derstandard.at/2000059271097/Erbschaftssteuer-bis-Mindestlohn-SPOe-stellt-sieben-Bedingungen-an-kuenftigen-Koalitionspartner

[Tender Branson]

Internal NEOS-poll (conducted by meinungsraum.at in late May, n=800):

31% ÖVP (+7%)
28% SPÖ (+1%)
24% FPÖ (+3%)
  9% Greens (-4%)
  6% NEOS (+1%)
  2% Others (-8%)

http://derstandard.at/2000059297287/Listenerstellung-120-Bewerber-wollen-fuer-Neos-kandidieren

[ApatheticAustrian]

worst övp poll in some time.

[Tender Branson]

worst övp poll in some time.

That's not true.

This internal poll for NEOS was conducted at the end of May.

There have been 2 newer polls in the meantime, showing the ÖVP at 34%.

[mvd10]

Is it safe to say the next coalition will be ÖVP-FPÖ (if they have a majority) even if SPÖ gets more votes than ÖVP?

[Tender Branson]

Is it safe to say the next coalition will be ÖVP-FPÖ (if they have a majority) even if SPÖ gets more votes than ÖVP?

Hard to say, but the signs are pointing to it yeah.

The Kurz-ÖVP and the FPÖ have really a lot in common.

[DavidB.]

Still the Kurz bump doesn't seem to be as big as expected in most polls.

[Tender Branson]

Still the Kurz bump doesn't seem to be as big as expected in most polls.

Polls months ago (before the leadership change) showed Kurz at 32-35%.

And Kurz is at 32-35% now.

Nothing has changed.

The only things that have changed is that the FPÖ is falling slightly behind and that the Greens have dropped below 10%.

[DavidB.]

As far as I know polls showed Kurz in the mid 30s and the other two parties in the mid 20s. Now, Kurz is in the low 30s, the SPÖ in the high 20s and the FPÖ in the mid 20s. That's a difference. If the SPÖ become the largest party, will they get to try and form a government first? If so, it would be quite a gamble for the FPÖ to make these negotiations collapse, as the ÖVP will have an incredibly strong position in ÖVP-FPÖ negotiations.

[Tender Branson]

As far as I know polls showed Kurz in the mid 30s and the other two parties in the mid 20s. Now, Kurz is in the low 30s, the SPÖ in the high 20s and the FPÖ in the mid 20s. That's a difference. If the SPÖ become the largest party, will they get to try and form a government first? If so, it would be quite a gamble for the FPÖ to make these negotiations collapse, as the ÖVP will have an incredibly strong position in ÖVP-FPÖ negotiations.

You can watch the polls here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Austrian_legislative_election,_2017

Click on "hypothetical older polling".

The SPÖ is actually bouncing around wildly between 20-28% right now, but most polls have them around 26-28%. Only the Research Affairs poll is stubbornly showing them around 20%.

The ÖVP-numbers didn't change over the last months.

---

Yeah, you are right: The party that finishes first in October will be asked to form the government by VdB. If the 1st party fails, he will instruct the 2nd party to form it.

[Tender Branson]

Interview with Strache (FPÖ): "Norbert Hofer would be a great foreign minister."

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5232847/Strache_Norbert-Hofer-waere-ein-guter-Aussenminister

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) attacked the ÖVP and Kurz today (a public holiday) for their massive tax cut and savings plans - calling them "not seriously thought-through, cold and anti-social".

Don't know if Austrians like this "confrontational Kern". Could backfire.

[Tender Branson]

New Research Affairs poll for "Ö24" (June 13-15, n=600):



"Others" are at 4%, which seems ... unlikely.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Kurz-vorne-Kern-holt-auf/287602885