AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Blackacre]

This is good news for the Republican Party.

A Ward blowout in the primary over Flake or a brutal primary fight would have helped Sinema immensely. Now that's not happening. I have it moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic, but that's based on the assumption that Ward wins her primary. If she doesn't, it's Tilts Democratic at best, and honestly probably a tossup.

Jeff Flake, while I won't particularly miss you, (you pissed me off in Manchin-Toomey and you only pretend to be anti-Trump while doing jack squat) I hope you lead a happy and fulfilling life once your time in the Senate is done.

[Devout Centrist]

Don't be surprised if Arpaio runs now too

[PoliticalShelter]

I actually think the best candidate the AZ GOP could get that would the primary is probably Brewer, but that probably isn't very likely.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This is more bad than good for the GOP...

[Free Bird]

Jeff DeWit seems to know he's wanted. Probably the best shot at keeping the seat now, TBH.

https://twitter.com/JeffDeWitAZ/status/922906754723192832

[Heisenberg]

Jeff DeWit seems to know he's wanted. Probably the best shot at keeping the seat now, TBH.

https://twitter.com/JeffDeWitAZ/status/922906754723192832

I hope he runs. I think he's the strongest candidate to beat Sinema.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

This is good news for the Republican Party.

A Ward blowout in the primary over Flake or a brutal primary fight would have helped Sinema immensely. Now that's not happening. I have it moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic, but that's based on the assumption that Ward wins her primary. If she doesn't, it's Tilts Democratic at best, and honestly probably a tossup.

Jeff Flake, while I won't particularly miss you, (you pissed me off in Manchin-Toomey and you only pretend to be anti-Trump while doing jack squat) I hope you lead a happy and fulfilling life once your time in the Senate is done.

I am sorry to say but you're wrong - the GOP will be fine in 2018.

Expect a 7-9 point victory for either Ward or Dewit.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In all likelihood, whether this is good or bad for the GOP, or DeWit runs, I think this seat will go to Sinema. It's going to be a vehemently anti-Trump midterm.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

This is more bad than good for the GOP...

Not if the GOP nominates a Trumpian candidate (DeWit or Ward).

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jeff DeWit seems to know he's wanted. Probably the best shot at keeping the seat now, TBH.

https://twitter.com/JeffDeWitAZ/status/922906754723192832

If he gets in, I'll move the race back to Toss-Up. But I won't be surprised if he defers to Ward.

[Cactus Jack]

In all likelihood, whether this is good or bad for the GOP, or DeWit runs, I think this seat will go to Sinema. It's going to be an anti-Trump midterm.

I'm glad someone's with me on that.

[Free Bird]

In all likelihood, whether this is good or bad for the GOP, or DeWit runs, I think this seat will go to Sinema. It's going to be an anti-Trump midterm.

You have no way of knowing what the sentiment will be a year from now. Too many variables. Sinema is the strongest Dem candidate in years, of course, but even now, she was, with the little data we have, running in a statistical tie with WARD.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In all likelihood, whether this is good or bad for the GOP, or DeWit runs, I think this seat will go to Sinema. It's going to be an anti-Trump midterm.

You have no way of knowing what the sentiment will be a year from now. Too many variables. Sinema is the strongest Dem candidate in years, of course, but even now, she was, with the little data we have, running in a statistical tie with WARD.

No I agree with you 100%, I'm just saying that since the midterm will likely be anti-Trump this seat will likely flip.

[BudgieForce]

In all likelihood, whether this is good or bad for the GOP, or DeWit runs, I think this seat will go to Sinema. It's going to be an anti-Trump midterm.

You have no way of knowing what the sentiment will be a year from now. Too many variables. Sinema is the strongest Dem candidate in years, of course, but even now, she was, with the little data we have, running in a statistical tie with WARD.

A variable that won't change: An open seat in a swing state during a midterm with an unpopular incumbent.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I've never been so excited for a future senator like I am for Sinema. She's a rockstar.

[IceSpear]

In all likelihood, whether this is good or bad for the GOP, or DeWit runs, I think this seat will go to Sinema. It's going to be an anti-Trump midterm.

You have no way of knowing what the sentiment will be a year from now. Too many variables. Sinema is the strongest Dem candidate in years, of course, but even now, she was, with the little data we have, running in a statistical tie with WARD.

A variable that won't change: An open seat in a swing state during a midterm with an unpopular incumbent.

A variable that can change: the incumbent's popularity. Not that I think Trump will become significantly more popular, but it's possible. He got a significant bump just from hurricanes. A year is a lifetime in politics. A variable that can change: People who dislike Trump and/or Ward somehow rationalizing that Sinema is worse. We just saw this story less than a year ago.

[Ye We Can]

I don't get this meme

[Blackacre]

This is good news for the Republican Party.

A Ward blowout in the primary over Flake or a brutal primary fight would have helped Sinema immensely. Now that's not happening. I have it moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic, but that's based on the assumption that Ward wins her primary. If she doesn't, it's Tilts Democratic at best, and honestly probably a tossup.

Jeff Flake, while I won't particularly miss you, (you pissed me off in Manchin-Toomey and you only pretend to be anti-Trump while doing jack squat) I hope you lead a happy and fulfilling life once your time in the Senate is done.

I am sorry to say but you're wrong - the GOP will be fine in 2018.

Expect a 7-9 point victory for either Ward or Dewit.

I could be wrong about my overall characterization of the 2018 midterms. There are two assumptions I'm using that lead to my Leans Democratic characterization.

1. 2018 will be a bad year overall for the Republican Party.

This is based on Trump's approval rating, generic ballot numbers, and historical trends. Midterms are almost always bad for the party in power. The only exceptions in the last half century were after a botched impeachment and 9/11. Even Reagan had two bad midterms. Remember that in the 2010 Tea Party wave, the GOP was less popular than Obama. Didn't matter. So in that kind of national environment, Sinema is probably favored in Arizona, especially for an open seat.

2. Kelly Ward fits a pattern of failed GOP Senate candidates, and would be the underdog even if the national environment favored the GOP.

This does NOT apply to DeWitt. But Ward strikes many of the same chords as Sharon Angle, Todd Akin, Christine O'Donnell, et cetera. Angle lost in Nevada even in the Tea Party Wave, against Harry Reid.

2016 changed nothing when it comes to GOP senate candidates. Almost every GOP win on the Senatorial level was with an incumbent, and Todd Young is no Richard Murdock.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I've never been so excited for a future senator like I am for Sinema. She's a rockstar.

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Interesting...

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Nope.

Once they use the "we'll make them pay back taxes" I immediately know they're a fraud.

Overall she's OK though. Better than Flake.

[Cactus Jack]

This is good news for the Republican Party.

A Ward blowout in the primary over Flake or a brutal primary fight would have helped Sinema immensely. Now that's not happening. I have it moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic, but that's based on the assumption that Ward wins her primary. If she doesn't, it's Tilts Democratic at best, and honestly probably a tossup.

Jeff Flake, while I won't particularly miss you, (you pissed me off in Manchin-Toomey and you only pretend to be anti-Trump while doing jack squat) I hope you lead a happy and fulfilling life once your time in the Senate is done.

I am sorry to say but you're wrong - the GOP will be fine in 2018.

Expect a 7-9 point victory for either Ward or Dewit.

I could be wrong about my overall characterization of the 2018 midterms. There are two assumptions I'm using that lead to my Leans Democratic characterization.

1. 2018 will be a bad year overall for the Republican Party.

This is based on Trump's approval rating, generic ballot numbers, and historical trends. Midterms are almost always bad for the party in power. The only exceptions in the last half century were after a botched impeachment and 9/11. Even Reagan had two bad midterms. Remember that in the 2010 Tea Party wave, the GOP was less popular than Obama. Didn't matter. So in that kind of national environment, Sinema is probably favored in Arizona, especially for an open seat.

2. Kelly Ward fits a pattern of failed GOP Senate candidates, and would be the underdog even if the national environment favored the GOP.

This does NOT apply to DeWitt. But Ward strikes many of the same chords as Sharon Angle, Todd Akin, Christine O'Donnell, et cetera. Angle lost in Nevada even in the Tea Party Wave, against Harry Reid.

2016 changed nothing when it comes to GOP senate candidates. Almost every GOP win on the Senatorial level was with an incumbent, and Todd Young is no Richard Murdock.

Don't bother

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I could be wrong about my overall characterization of the 2018 midterms. There are two assumptions I'm using that lead to my Leans Democratic characterization.

1. 2018 will be a bad year overall for the Republican Party.

This is based on Trump's approval rating, generic ballot numbers, and historical trends. Midterms are almost always bad for the party in power. The only exceptions in the last half century were after a botched impeachment and 9/11. Even Reagan had two bad midterms. Remember that in the 2010 Tea Party wave, the GOP was less popular than Obama. Didn't matter. So in that kind of national environment, Sinema is probably favored in Arizona, especially for an open seat.

2. Kelly Ward fits a pattern of failed GOP Senate candidates, and would be the underdog even if the national environment favored the GOP.

This does NOT apply to DeWitt. But Ward strikes many of the same chords as Sharon Angle, Todd Akin, Christine O'Donnell, et cetera. Angle lost in Nevada even in the Tea Party Wave, against Harry Reid.

2016 changed nothing when it comes to GOP senate candidates. Almost every GOP win on the Senatorial level was with an incumbent, and Todd Young is no Richard Murdock.

What about the Trump effect? The Black Swan effect?

[Devout Centrist]

Overall she's OK though. Better than Flake.

How could you say that as a Republican? She would block the President's agenda if elected.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Overall she's OK though. Better than Flake.

How could you say that as a Republican? She would block the President's agenda if elected.

What do you think Flake has been doing?

Honestly at this point I dislike RINOs so much I'd prefer Democrats.

McCain to me is worse than Schumer and Warren for example.

My 2 biggest problems with her from what I can tell is her stance on illegal immigration (she uses the "make them pay back taxes" meme) and gun control. But Flake is also bad on those positions anyway.

If I am going to get stabbed might as well be from the front rather than the back know what I mean?

[Devout Centrist]

Overall she's OK though. Better than Flake.

How could you say that as a Republican? She would block the President's agenda if elected.

What do you think Flake has been doing?

Honestly at this point I dislike RINOs so much I'd prefer Democrats.

McCain to me is worse than Schumer and Warren for example.

My 2 biggest problems with her from what I can tell is her stance on illegal immigration (she uses the "make them pay back taxes" meme) and gun control. But Flake is also bad on those positions anyway.

If I am going to get stabbed might as well be from the front rather than the back know what I mean?

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Overall she's OK though. Better than Flake.

How could you say that as a Republican? She would block the President's agenda if elected.

What do you think Flake has been doing?

Honestly at this point I dislike RINOs so much I'd prefer Democrats.

McCain to me is worse than Schumer and Warren for example.

My 2 biggest problems with her from what I can tell is her stance on illegal immigration (she uses the "make them pay back taxes" meme) and gun control. But Flake is also bad on those positions anyway.

If I am going to get stabbed might as well be from the front rather than the back know what I mean?

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

He just said what he cares about is illegal immigration and guns - Which Flake doesn't agree with him on.