Gay Marriage/Civil Unions in 10 years

[Alcon]

SUSA poll of 500 New York adults finds five-point plurality support for gay marriage.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c0840af2-ee80-40f5-bc79-b77a14d53000

[Holmes]

Alcon, VP Meeker, every other Washingtonian here, get ready for a battle. Not a gay marriage one, this is even more ridiculous:

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Ridiculous. Blow them out of the water in 2010.

SUSA poll of 500 New York adults finds five-point plurality support for gay marriage.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c0840af2-ee80-40f5-bc79-b77a14d53000

Silly crosstabs(Upstate?). But I'll flaunt it.


eta: State Senate Majority Leader in New Hampshire is saying that the caucus is having a lot of discussions about the testimony the other day(which went really well for us) and a Senate vote can be anywhere from next week to mid-May... I guess that's a good indicator that it'll get out of committee.

[RI]

Alcon, VP Meeker, every other Washingtonian here, get ready for a battle. Not a gay marriage one, this is even more ridiculous:

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Ridiculous. Blow them out of the water in 2010.

That measure has no shot at passing. Plus, I will actually get to legally vote against it.

[Rowan]

SUSA poll of 500 New York adults finds five-point plurality support for gay marriage.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c0840af2-ee80-40f5-bc79-b77a14d53000

I don't think it will pass if placed on a ballot.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow, you gave some great detail on why you believe that. You've convinced me now.

[Brittain33]

Wow, you gave some great detail on why you believe that. You've convinced me now.

What's more, it doesn't matter. It's never going on a ballot in New York. The only reason to poll on this is to convince state senators they won't pay an electoral cost for voting for it.

The interesting result is that support is strongest upstate, albeit within MOE. No doubt immigrants are much more conservative on this issue than others. And yet upstate is an almost solid bloc of Republican state senators. Unfortunately city Democratic senators have constituency incentives to vote against gay marriage, while upstate and Long Island Republican senators have partisan incentives to not stick their necks out on the issue. This whole thing sadly looks like a Hail Mary pass by Paterson. I would be pleasantly shocked if it passes before 2010.

[Rowan]

Wow, you gave some great detail on why you believe that. You've convinced me now.

Okay, how about this, its only up 5 points in a poll of adults. Turn that into a likely voters poll, it's probably a 2 gap, so it's all down to turnout. Who does a better job of turning out, conservatives or liberals?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow, you gave some great detail on why you believe that. You've convinced me now.

Okay, how about this, its only up 5 points in a poll of adults. Turn that into a likely voters poll, it's probably a 2 gap, so it's all down to turnout. Who does a better job of turning out, conservatives or liberals?

In New York?

Wow, you gave some great detail on why you believe that. You've convinced me now.

What's more, it doesn't matter. It's never going on a ballot in New York. The only reason to poll on this is to convince state senators they won't pay an electoral cost for voting for it.

The interesting result is that support is strongest upstate, albeit within MOE. No doubt immigrants are much more conservative on this issue than others. And yet upstate is an almost solid bloc of Republican state senators. Unfortunately city Democratic senators have constituency incentives to vote against gay marriage, while upstate and Long Island Republican senators have partisan incentives to not stick their necks out on the issue. This whole thing sadly looks like a Hail Mary pass by Paterson. I would be pleasantly shocked if it passes before 2010.

Subsample MoE is worth noting, although I am shocked by the lack of support in NYC.

[Brittain33]

Wow, you gave some great detail on why you believe that. You've convinced me now.

Okay, how about this, its only up 5 points in a poll of adults. Turn that into a likely voters poll, it's probably a 2 gap, so it's all down to turnout. Who does a better job of turning out, conservatives or liberals?

Liberals, these days. But, also, that's beside the point. While gay marriage always polls greater support than it gets on Election Day, that has nothing to do with turnout models. Most likely it's because some share of people don't want to admit over the phone to opposing it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Subsample MoE is worth noting, although I am shocked by the lack of support in NYC.

So was I 'till I remembered it's minority-majority.

[Brittain33]

Subsample MoE is worth noting, although I am shocked by the lack of support in NYC.

So was I 'till I remembered it's minority-majority.

And many people in NYC are recent immigrants from places that are very anti-gay. West Indies, Pakistan, Middle East, Africa.

[Brittain33]

Steve Schmidt, John McCain's campaign manager, is going to announce that Republicans should endorse same-sex marriage both on its merits and for the political future of the party.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2009/04/mccain-guru-urg.html

I can not believe we are living in the same decade as 2004.

[Scam of God]

Steve Schmidt, John McCain's campaign manager, is going to announce that Republicans should endorse same-sex marriage both on its merits and for the political future of the party.

It'll never happen. Where will the white working class go then? These Republican assholes seem to forget that they like the Democrats on economics. They just don't like them on virtually anything else.

[Brittain33]

Steve Schmidt, John McCain's campaign manager, is going to announce that Republicans should endorse same-sex marriage both on its merits and for the political future of the party.

It'll never happen. Where will the white working class go then? These Republican assholes seem to forget that they like the Democrats on economics. They just don't like them on virtually anything else.

There are other wedge issues that don't show the same clear trend that same-sex marriage does.

[Scam of God]

Steve Schmidt, John McCain's campaign manager, is going to announce that Republicans should endorse same-sex marriage both on its merits and for the political future of the party.

It'll never happen. Where will the white working class go then? These Republican assholes seem to forget that they like the Democrats on economics. They just don't like them on virtually anything else.

There are other wedge issues that don't show the same clear trend that same-sex marriage does.

Which of them save abortion has the same pull as same-sex marriage? The Republicans are trying to make inroads with minorities, so extreme race-baiting is out. The Drug War? It's completely out of the mainstream to champion it any more than they already do.

[Torie]

There are always guns and illegals to recycle, as well as pointing out the creeping Godlessness which stalks the Fruited Plain. Maybe the Dems will stub their toe on the death penalty.

Moving right along, what is a real wedge issue?  You guessed it: card check!  It's war baby.

[Verily]

There are always guns and illegals to recycle, as well as pointing out the creeping Godlessness which stalks the Fruited Plain. Maybe the Dems will stub their toe on the death penalty.

Moving right along, what is a real wedge issue?  You guessed it: card check!  It's war baby.

It's only a wedge issue if people care about it. The really hilarious thing about the EFCA debate is that it's blatantly obvious almost no one cares one way or another. That's why one wording of a poll on the subject found 76% in support while another wording found 74% opposed.

It also makes all the politicians "changing their minds" a bit silly. It's not like they're actually going to receive any political punishment for voting for (or against) a bill that no one cares about. Just vote your conscience.

[Torie]

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There, fixed it.

[Holmes]

Reasoning?

[Verily]

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There, fixed it.

Oh, I know. I didn't say it wasn't important, just that the public has absolutely no interest whatsoever.

[Rowan]

Are 31% of adults in NY age 18-34 like the poll has? That seems a little high.

[Smash255]

Are 31% of adults in NY age 18-34 like the poll has? That seems a little high.

The 2008 exit polls in NY had it pretty close to 31%.  I couldn't find an exact 18-34 breakdown, but 18-29 was 22%, and 30-39 was 17%.   If the 30-39 breakout is split anywhere remotely evenly between the 30-34 group and the 35-39 group well your right at or near your 31%

[Nhoj]

Are 31% of adults in NY age 18-34 like the poll has? That seems a little high.

its possible new york has a high minority population but i dont think its a good poll either, but that doesnt mean that new yorkers dont support gay marriage its quite possible. and as for your comment about this being a adults poll instead of likely voter, you do know minorities are the ones less likely to turnout and i would imagine minorities are more likely to reject gay marriage then whites.

[Lunar]

Are 31% of adults in NY age 18-34 like the poll has? That seems a little high.

its possible new york has a high minority population but i dont think its a good poll either, but that doesnt mean that new yorkers dont support gay marriage its quite possible. and as for your comment about this being a adults poll instead of likely voter, you do know minorities are the ones less likely to turnout and i would imagine minorities are more likely to reject gay marriage then whites.

at least, they'd be less likely to pressure their own legislators one way or another on this issue

this isn't a referendum, yo

[Rowan]

Are 31% of adults in NY age 18-34 like the poll has? That seems a little high.

The 2008 exit polls in NY had it pretty close to 31%.  I couldn't find an exact 18-34 breakdown, but 18-29 was 22%, and 30-39 was 17%.   If the 30-39 breakout is split anywhere remotely evenly between the 30-34 group and the 35-39 group well your right at or near your 31%

Thanks. I wasn't sure.