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From The Upshot: The Social Campaign
(from: NY Times The Caucus @ December 22, 2014, 10:03 AM)

Some of the processes the company used were opaque, so a number of questions remain unanswered.

Capital Journal Daybreak: Killings of New York Police Officers Spark Backlash to Protests | Little Crossover Appeal for Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush | White House Weighs Options Against North Korea
(from: Washington Wire @ December 22, 2014, 07:31 AM)

The Journal's morning rundown of the biggest news stories and exclusive features from Washington on politics, policy, financial regulation, defense and more.

Little Crossover Appeal for Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush ? WSJ/NBC Poll
(from: Washington Wire @ December 22, 2014, 07:23 AM)

Only 8% of American adults say they would be open to supporting both Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush in the 2016 presidential race, according to results of the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, suggesting a contest between the two would break along predictably partisan lines.

First Draft Focus: The Year in Political Pictures
(from: NY Times The Caucus @ December 22, 2014, 06:00 AM)

Here are some of our favorite political images of the year by the staff photographers Doug Mills and Stephen Crowley, and the interns Gabriella Demczuk and Jabin Botsford.

Seib Video: Obama?s Road Ahead on Cuba
(from: Washington Wire @ December 22, 2014, 06:00 AM)

President Barack Obama's decision to normalize relations with Cuba is continuing to make big waves, and there will be big fights with Congress next year over how far and how fast to go on this front. But this will be a different kind of fight. Washington Bureau Chief Jerry Seib explains.

New York Conservative Party Has Best Vote Showing Since 1990
(from: Ballot Access News @ December 22, 2014, 02:12 AM)

At the November 4, 2014 election, the Conservative Party of New York polled the highest percentages for Congress and state legislature since 1990. In the 2014 election, for U.S. House, 8.46% of the voters who were able to vote “Conservative”, did so. For State Senate, 9.43% of the voters who were able to vote for


New York State Senate Race Won by Democrat Who Only Polled 32.65% of Vote Cast
(from: Ballot Access News @ December 21, 2014, 09:15 PM)

The State Senate race in New York’s 60th district in Buffalo featured a four-candidate race, in which the winning Democrat, Marc Panepinto, won with only 32.65% of the vote. The incumbent State Senator, Republican Mark G. Grisanti, lost the Republican primary to Kevin T. Stocker. Grisanti had voted for a gun control measure and Stocker


2014 candidates versus the expectations game
(from: Swing State Project @ December 21, 2014, 07:29 PM)

Final Senate Race Ratings
The 2014 election is, thankfully, in the books and fading in the rearview mirror. For the truly devoted elections nerds, though, the work's just beginning, slicing and dicing the results to see what happened, and where our strengths and weaknesses are. For starters, let's take a look at how the various candidates did individually, and how those candidates did when compared to the expectations that were set for them.

While Daily Kos Elections experimented this year with a quantitative predictive model (which turned out well, narrowly beating all the other models), we also stuck with our tried-and-true qualitative race ratings that we've used every cycle since 2008, using the same "Likely/Lean/Tossup" framework that anyone who follows along with the Charlie Cooks and Larry Sabatos of the world is familiar with. So here's our chance to look back at how those predictions (the final version of which you can see here) panned out.

Most races, of course, are entirely predictable from the very start; they're in a very red or very blue state or congressional district, with an entrenched incumbent and a little-known, underfunded opponent. So that means that by cycle's end, there are usually only a dozen or so Senate races, and under 100 House races, where there's any doubt whatsoever about the result; as for true tossups, those are only a small fraction of the total.

This exercise doesn't just help us know how we did, but also gives us some targeting information for the 2016 elections (and help us as we start thinking about 2016 ratings). It can help us pinpoint Republicans who were supposed to be safe but barely squeaked by, who might have some previously unknown glass jaw that we might exploit next time. It can also help us find which Democrats are at risk of underperforming again.

We'll look at the individual races over the fold, starting with the Senate:

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel Challenges Three-Fourths of Willie Wilson?s Signatures, Including Wilson?s Own Signature
(from: Ballot Access News @ December 21, 2014, 04:21 PM)

Here is an article about the challenge to Willie Wilson’s petitions to be on the ballot for Mayor of Chicago. Incumbent Rahm Emanuel has challenged approximately three-fourths of Wilson’s petitions. According to this story, Emanuel even challenged Wilson’s own signature on his own petition. Everyone needs at least 12,500 signatures to be on a Chicago


Quotes From Sunday Talk Shows: Police Officers Killed, Cuba, Sony Hack
(from: Washington Wire @ December 21, 2014, 04:07 PM)

Here's a rundown of notable quotes from the Sunday talk shows, on the fatal shooting of two New York City police officers, the Sony hack, and the new Cuba policy.

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