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N.C. Sen. Hagan?s First Ad Takes On GOP?s Thom Tillis
(from: Washington Wire @ April 17, 2014, 03:57 PM)

Sen. Kay Hagan (D., N.C.) releases an ad targeting the leading GOP candidate, Thom Tillis, speaker of the North Carolina House,


Jay Carney Live: On ?Two Ferns,? Selfies, and Jon Stewart
(from: Washington Wire @ April 17, 2014, 02:22 PM)

Obama spokesman Jay Carney comments on a range of issues, including President Obama's appearance on Jon Stewart's show.


District of Columbia Republican Party Threatens to Sue Any Democrats who run as Independents This Year
(from: Ballot Access News @ April 17, 2014, 02:18 PM)

The District of Columbia election law provides a mechanism that prevents one party from winning all the seats on the Washington, D.C., city council. Each election, there are two open at-large seats on the city council, but no party can run more than a single nominee. Therefore, by default, the Democratic Party can’t win all

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Florida Gubernatorial Poll
(from: Ballot Access News @ April 17, 2014, 01:44 PM)

On April 17, Public Policy Polling released a gubernatorial poll for Florida. It shows Democrat Charlie Crist at 46%, Republican incumbent Rick Scott at 41%, “other” 7%, undecided 6%. The only announced minor party candidate expected to be on the November ballot is Libertarian Adrian Wyllie, although there will be independent candidates as well. Here

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Tisha Casida: Mayors, Moms, and Millions ? Protect Your Life with No More Federal Gun Laws
(from: Independent Political Report @ April 17, 2014, 12:41 PM)

Adam Kokesh and Tisha Casida in Gypsum, Colorado Tisha Casida is an independent candidate for U.S. House in Colorado’s 3rd district Former Mayor Bloomberg passionately pleaded for mayors, moms, and millions of Americans to join his crusade – and that the number of deaths caused by guns and suicide from “illegal” guns was over 30,000 […]


Karl Rove polls prove that GOP Senate victory not assured
(from: Swing State Project @ April 17, 2014, 12:38 PM)

John Walsh campaign signs
Not over.
I was just mentioning how hard the GOP's path to the Senate majority was, and Karl Rove's Crossroads decided to support my thesis by polling a bunch of the key Senate races. Politico's Morning Score email newsletter:
Arkansas: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor 39, GOP Rep. Tom Cotton 39, not sure 22. Pryor approval rating: 38 percent approve, 44 percent disapprove; Cotton favorability: 31 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable. (Margin of error: 4.3 percentage points.)

Colorado: Democratic Sen. Mark Udall 45, GOP Rep. Cory Gardner 43, not sure 12. Udall approval rating: 38 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove; Gardner favorability: 30 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable. (Margin of error: 4.4 percentage points.)

Louisiana: In Nov. 4 primary: Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 40, GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy 35, Republican Rob Maness 4, Republican Paul Hollis 3, not sure 18 percent. In hypothetical runoff: Landrieu 43, Cassidy 47, not sure 10. Landrieu approval rating: 39 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove. (Margin of error: 4.2 percentage points.)

Michigan: Republican former secretary of state Terri Lynn Land 43, Democratic Rep. Gary Peters 40, not sure 18. Land favorability: 32 percent favorable, 32 percent unfavorable; Peters favorability: 25 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable. (Margin of error: 4.2 percentage points.)

Montana: Democratic Sen. John Walsh 35, Republican Rep. Steve Daines 42, not sure 23. Democratic former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger 33, Daines 44, not sure 23. Walsh favorability: 33 percent favorable, 22 percent unfavorable; Daines favorability: 43 percent favorable, 31 percent unfavorable; Bohlinger favorability: 27 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable. (Margin of error: 4.3 percentage points.)

The polls were conducted by Harper Research, a new GOP robo firm designed to counter PPP?so flooding the zone with polling, but without PPP's proven track record. Also note that these polls do not include cell phones, a methodological flaw that can no longer be ignored. Even PPP, the prototypical robo-poller, is now supplementing its samples with cell phones internet surveying.

Still, it does give us some numbers to work with, and I take a closer look below the fold, including some (mostly positive) trend lines.


Beau Biden Plans 2016 Run for Delaware Governor
(from: Washington Wire @ April 17, 2014, 12:37 PM)

Beau Biden, Vice President Joe Biden?s eldest son, announced Thursday that he plans to run for governor in Delaware, where he has served eight years as attorney general.


Win the Senate? Not as easy as Republicans think
(from: Swing State Project @ April 17, 2014, 12:33 PM)

U.S. Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes addresses the crowd during a campaign stop with Former President Bill Clinton (not pictured) at campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky February 25, 2014. REUTERS/John Sommers II
Mitch McConnell won't be Senate Majority Leader after November. And thanks to Alison Lundergan Grimes, he won't even be in the Senate.
The media and Republicans are already claiming victory this November. The reality? With Republicans all-but-guaranteed pickups in West Virginia and South Dakota, the race will come down to the following states: Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, New Hampshire, and North Carolina.

Some people have tried to make Virginia into something, but really, it's not. Neither is New Hampshire. Or Iowa.

So to win back the majority, Republicans have to win those two seats in WV and SD, and four more from Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, and North Carolina. All the while, they must hold their two endangered seats in Kentucky and Georgia. That's called "running the board."

Head below the fold for a closer look at the GOP's actual chances of victory.


Obama Sees Biden and Clinton as Potential 2016 Contenders
(from: Washington Wire @ April 17, 2014, 12:30 PM)

President Obama sees Hillary Clinton as a potential 2016 contender along with Vice President Joe Biden.


Missouri Libertarian Party Places 30 Candidates on Primary Ballot
(from: Independent Political Report @ April 17, 2014, 11:59 AM)

The Missouri Libertarian Party will have 30 candidates on the primary election ballot this August. Once again, the Missouri LP is running a full slate of candidates for federal offices. The LPMO has run a full slate of federal candidates in each general election going back to 1996, except in 2008, where the party had […]


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