Question:
Suppose that (Florida Senator Marco Rubio) (former Florida
Governor Jeb Bush) (Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker) became the Republican nominee and was running
against Democrat Hillary Clinton in the general election for President next year. If the election were being
held today and these were the candidates, for whom would you vote for President?

About this Poll
The results in this report come from a telephone survey completed April 23-May 16, 2015 among a random
sample of 801 California registered voters consider likely to vote in next year’s presidential election.
Preferences in the Democratic primary are based on 356 likely Democratic voters, while preferences in the
Republican primary are based on 227 likely Republican voters. To capture the diversity of the California
adult population, the survey was administered in six languages and dialects – English, Spanish, Cantonese,
Mandarin, Vietnamese and Korean, depending on the preference of the voter. In order to cover a broad range
of issues and still minimize respondent fatigue the November general election trial heat questions are based
on a random subsample of 435 likely voters in the November general election.
The sample was developed using a dual frame random cell phone and landline listings covering the state of
California. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on
different days and times of day during the interviewing period. After the completion of interviewing, the
combined landline and cell phone sample was weighted to match demographic, geographic and voter
registration estimates of the adult population in California. The weighting process also takes into account the
higher probability of reaching respondents who receive calls on both a landline and cell phone.
Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and
the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the random
subsample of likely voters in the November general election are +/- 5.0 percentage points at the 95%
confidence level. The maximum sampling error for preferences in the Democratic primary are +/- 5.5
percentage points, while those relating to the Republican primary are +/- 7.0 percentage points.
The maximum sampling error estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling
distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at or near either tail of the distributions (i.e., results
closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in
surveys of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey
sought to minimize these other possible errors.
The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor.
The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public
opinion. The Poll receives funding from media subscribers, from California foundations and independent
not-for-profit organizations, and from the University of California and California State University systems,
who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary
research purposes.