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Source: Western New England College (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DElizabeth WarrenDemocratic50%piePoll Date: 2012-10-04
RScott Brown*Republican45%Number Polled: 440
-Other-0%Margin of Error: 5%
-Undecided-5%Voter Type: Likely

  * = Incumbent

Warren with Lead in Massachusetts

 By: leip (--MA) on 2012-10-07 @ 17:49:17

Question:
As you may know, voters in Massachusetts will elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott Brown, the Republican, and Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat, would you vote for Scott Brown, Elizabeth Warren, or some other candidate for Senate? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean more toward Scott Brown, the Republican, or more toward Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat?

About this Poll
The Western New England University Polling Institute survey consists of telephone interviews with 567 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing Sept. 28 – Oct. 4, 2012. The sample yielded 516 adults who said they are registered to vote in Massachusetts, and 440 adults who are classified as likely to vote in the Nov. 6, 2012 general election. The Polling Institute classified likely voters based on voters’ responses to questions about interest in the election, likelihood of voting in the election, ability to identify their polling place, and whether they reported voting in the 2008 presidential election.

The Polling Institute dialed household telephone numbers, known as “landline numbers,” and cell phone numbers for the survey. In order to draw a representative sample from the landline numbers, interviewers first asked for the youngest male age 18 or older who was home at the time of the call, and if no adult male was present, the youngest female age 18 or older who was at home at the time of the call. Interviewers dialing cell phone numbers interviewed the respondent who answered the cell phone after confirming three things: (1) that the respondent was in a safe setting to complete the survey; (2) that the respondent was an adult age 18 or older; and (3) that the respondent was a resident of Massachusetts. The landline and cell phone data were combined and weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race, age, and county of residence using U.S. Census estimates for Massachusetts. The full text of the questionnaire for this survey is available at www1.wne.edu/pollinginst.

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for a sample of 440 likely voters is +/- 4.7 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus if 55 percent of likely voters said they approved of the job that Scott Brown is doing as U.S. Senator, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 50.3 percent and 59.7 percent (55 percent +/- 4.7 percent) had all Massachusetts likely voters been interviewed, rather than just a sample. The margin of sampling error for the sample of 516 registered voters is +/- 4.3 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects.

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