Spanish General Election 2011

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sigh...

Are people that stupid ?

Not stupid, but really pissed.

Pissed by PSOE's spending cuts, hence voting for PP ? This seems like the definition of stupidity.

[Хahar 🤔]

The ERC vote change is interesting. I'm not terribly familiar with conditions in Catalonia; can someone explain?

[Keystone Phil]

Can someone explain without heavy doses of bias why Rajoy is so disliked?

[redcommander]

Can someone explain without heavy doses of bias why Rajoy is so disliked?

He's very Conservative for a right-winger in Europe.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Sigh...

Are people that stupid ?

Not stupid, but really pissed.

Pissed by PSOE's spending cuts, hence voting for PP ? This seems like the definition of stupidity.

     Not necessarily. It makes sense if you think of it as a sort of message. Essentially, "do what we like or we will toss you out". Of course the officials in the PSOE are politicians just as much as officials in any other party, so, if they get the message, they will be much more concerned about not angering their supporters in the future.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sigh...

Are people that stupid ?

Not stupid, but really pissed.

Pissed by PSOE's spending cuts, hence voting for PP ? This seems like the definition of stupidity.

     Not necessarily. It makes sense if you think of it as a sort of message. Essentially, "do what we like or we will toss you out". Of course the officials in the PSOE are politicians just as much as officials in any other party, so, if they get the message, they will be much more concerned about not angering their supporters in the future.

I highly doubt the PP has the intention not to anger those who were angered by Zapatero's policies. The right knows how to implement universally loathed policies and still get reelected.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Sigh...

Are people that stupid ?

Not stupid, but really pissed.

Pissed by PSOE's spending cuts, hence voting for PP ? This seems like the definition of stupidity.

     Not necessarily. It makes sense if you think of it as a sort of message. Essentially, "do what we like or we will toss you out". Of course the officials in the PSOE are politicians just as much as officials in any other party, so, if they get the message, they will be much more concerned about not angering their supporters in the future.

I highly doubt the PP has the intention not to anger those who were angered by Zapatero's policies. The right knows how to implement universally loathed policies and still get reelected.

     I am rather referring to the PSOE. They may (or may not) learn not to try something as unpopular with their base again, though the price for that lesson will be spending time out of power.

     I will admit to being deeply ignorant of Spanish politics, but what I've seen in this thread suggests that Spain is essentially a two-party state. Without a significant left-wing alternative, the only way for PSOE supporters to express their displeasure is to throw the election to the PP. It may seem like a bizarre course of action to us, but my guess is that people feel that, with austerity, there's not enough of a difference between the two parties to discourage the option of voicing their displeasure by letting the other side win. Either way, they are not getting the programs they want.

     Once again, I don't know much about the views of the election on the ground in Spain. That is a guess, & probably a horribly wrong one. I defer to people who are more knowledgeable about such things.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That might make sense, but I'm sure those people will regret it by the first 3 months of a PP government.

[minionofmidas]

     I will admit to being deeply ignorant of Spanish politics, but what I've seen in this thread suggests that Spain is essentially a two-party state.

Sizable parts of it are. Others, absolutely not. And even in those sizable parts, it's a recent phenomenon thanks to the near-complete collapse of the IU. Which remains a quite old fashioned Commie party... which helps explain that. A lot of the electorate that votes for Green or other minor left parties elsewhere in Europe has no choice but to stick to PSOE in Spain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am rather referring to the PSOE. They may (or may not) learn not to try something as unpopular with their base again, though the price for that lesson will be spending time out of power.

Same sort of thing happened with the Gonzalez government though.

[republicanism]

I am rather referring to the PSOE. They may (or may not) learn not to try something as unpopular with their base again, though the price for that lesson will be spending time out of power.

I don't think Social Democracy will learn this lesson in my lifetime.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am rather referring to the PSOE. They may (or may not) learn not to try something as unpopular with their base again, though the price for that lesson will be spending time out of power.

I don't think Social Democracy will learn this lesson in my lifetime.

Probably not. It didn't during the lifetime of my Grandad either (early 1920s to early 1990s).

[Niemeyerite]

Can someone explain without heavy doses of bias why Rajoy is so disliked?

He lost 2 elections. the moderate wing of the PP (leaded by Gallardon) thinks he favors the ultra-conservative wing (and that's true). The extremist wing leaded by Mayor Oreja and Aguirre) thinks Rajoy is a bad candidate for the party, because he has no personality and has already lost 2 times.

The ERC vote change is interesting. I'm not terribly familiar with conditions in Catalonia; can someone explain?

Yes. First, Solidaritat Independentista, a copy of ERC, won 4 seats in the past elections. and the "tripartito" of PSC-IU-ERC was seen as uneffective, and the more nationalist people in ERC prefer to vote CiU or SI, to punish ERC.

_____________________

And remember what I said, ABC, ELMUNDO or LAGACETA surveys aren't reliable. and that +12.6
advantage for Rajoy comes from an ABC poll.

Here we have an IPSOS poll. I don't think it's reliable, either, but PP is up by 8.2%:

[You kip if you want to...]

Are there any numbers from pollsters of how voters see the party leaders?

[Hash]

CiU's fall back from its already poor 2008 showing (21.3%) is interesting. Not all that surprising, given that the Generalitat's finances are in bad shape and the CiU is in power there, but quite interesting. The CiU had already done badly in 2008 - 21.6% - which is a rather poor result even in a general election for them - so performing worst than that is a tad surprising. Also good news for the PSC, given that the Socialists need to do well in Catalonia (they already did spectacularly well in 2008, better even than 1982) to have a shot at winning nationally especially if the Andalusian nightmare plays out for them at the GE.

ERC could probably be at risk of losing all its seats or more likely 2 of its 3 seats. It seems to be falling back to its lows of the pre-2004 era rapidly.

[Niemeyerite]

IMHO, tha poll showing CiU losing support isn't reliable. I think CiU will have more votes than in 2008. now, they have 10 seats, and I expect them to gain 2 or 3 =/
ERC has a new leader now, more radical, more "nationalist", who plans to oust Joan Ridao, ERC's leader in the Parliament, and put in his place a more radical person. I think that could help them. If they were supposed to lose 2 seats, I think they could loose only 1 or even stay at 3.

[Hash]

Well, ERC also suffered a lot from the retirement of Josep Lluis Carod Rovira a few years back: he had been a main cause of the ERC's rebirth of sorts in the late 90s and especially 2003-2004.

As for CiU, I don't see why them losing support isn't likely. They do have room to grow, but let's remember that CiU already did relatively poorly in May and that they could suffer the brunt of popular discontent against austerity given that they're now in power in Barcelona.

[Niemeyerite]

I think it's extremely unlikely CiU will loose support. 2008 was really a bad year for them, because  half of their voters decided to help Zapatero. And they may be in the power in Catalunya now, and Artur Mas is not exactly "popular", but he will keep some of those 2008 ZP voters at home. Also, Duran i Lleida is the most popular political figure in Spain after Rubalcaba and Chacon.
I wouldn't be too surprised if CiU managed to win 15 seats. But one thing is clear: PSOE will win, again, in Catalunya this year.

Josep Lluis Carod-Rovira didn't retire. He was almost ousted by Joan Puigcercós, the former president of ERC. Carod wanted to be in the campaign of 2009, but Puigcercos thought he could hurt the party. He was wrong, of course.

And talking about Catalunya, here we have an unreliable intern poll from CiU for the Presidential election in Catalunya. PSOE carries 32.1% of the vote while CiU wins 29.7%. PP is stronger than expected, but remember, this is an intern poll:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, actually, PSC are clearly ahead there.

[Keystone Phil]

Any significant news or polling recently? Things seem to have gotten awfully quiet.

[Hash]

Any significant news or polling recently? Things seem to have gotten awfully quiet.

Nothing afaik. It's dead season as the campaign hasn't started and the writs haven't officially been dropped yet. Most of what has made news yet are little snippets like abolishing provincial governments, proposed by Rubalcaba who then backtracked. Only significant news imo is that Aralar has signed a deal with Bildu for a common slate for the general elections which the PNV has refused. Aralar has nothing much to loose given that Bildu has stolen most of its votes.

[Niemeyerite]

Any significant news or polling recently? Things seem to have gotten awfully quiet.

Nothing afaik. It's dead season as the campaign hasn't started and the writs haven't officially been dropped yet. Most of what has made news yet are little snippets like abolishing provincial governments, proposed by Rubalcaba who then backtracked. Only significant news imo is that Aralar has signed a deal with Bildu for a common slate for the general elections which the PNV has refused. Aralar has nothing much to loose given that Bildu has stolen most of its votes.

Yes, PNV refused. but they could still go in the same lists for the Senate... that's unlikely, however.
Other news is that PSOE and PP are trying to ge the suport of PNV to oust Bildu's Martin Garitano as General Deputy of Guipuzkoa.

And... nothing more. Rubalcaba is campaign¡ng hard and we still don't know where Mariano Rajoy is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And... nothing more. Rubalcaba is campaign¡ng hard and we still don't know where Mariano Rajoy is.

I know the likelihood is tiny, but... Could Rubalcaba pull a Truman ?

[You kip if you want to...]

And... nothing more. Rubalcaba is campaign¡ng hard and we still don't know where Mariano Rajoy is.

I know the likelihood is tiny, but... Could Rubalcaba pull a Truman ?

From all accounts, it's not impossible, just quite unlikely.

[Niemeyerite]

And... nothing more. Rubalcaba is campaign¡ng hard and we still don't know where Mariano Rajoy is.

I know the likelihood is tiny, but... Could Rubalcaba pull a Truman ?

Definitely, he's doing all he can do to win this. It will be really difficult, but I don't think it's impossible.
In Portugal, the PS was trailing by +20, and 2 weeks before the election, they were leading the PSD by 1! However, the PSD won by 10 at the end... It wasn't the worst result. I hope Rubalcaba will make this election really close.

Spanish socialists tend to be like Harry Truman: nobody expected Gonzalez to win in 93, and Zapatero in 2004. And they won, comfortably.