Canadian by-elections, 2012

[doktorb]

Durham (the forgotten byelection): Con 16,088 ahead of NDP 8,399

[Orion0]

Pretty exciting that Victoria is also close, the power of byelections!
CC seems to be stabilizing though.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

It would seem that the Grits and Greens should have come to some sort of vote-trading agreement between Calgary Centre and Victoria and they'd both be well ahead.

[MaxQue]

CC: Tories leads by 635 votes
V: NDP leads by 58 votes.

[doktorb]

Victoria
NDP lead Greens 3,768 to 3,745

Calgary
Conservative lead Liberal  6,965 to 6,360

[RogueBeaver]

Stephen Carter, Martha Hall Findlay's AB-based strategist, has conceded defeat on Twitter. Given the 600+ gap I don't see how Locke wins at this point...

[Orion0]

It would seem that the Grits and Greens should have come to some sort of vote-trading agreement between Calgary Centre and Victoria and they'd both be well ahead.

Works in theory, but not on the ground. Older progressive voters write off green candidates (single issue, not in position of power, etc etc) and go liberal, and there is a large contingent in Alberta that would rather vote ABC with another caveat ABL. Never underestimate how poisoned the liberal name is among certain people in this province.

[doktorb]

CC
Con 7,097
Liberal 6,467
Green 4,912

Vic
NDP 4,368
Green 4,355
Con 1,568

Durham
Con 16,175
NDP 8,462
Liberal 5,488

[Hatman 🍁]

29 vote lead

[Hatman 🍁]

89 vote lead

[doktorb]

Victoria
NDP  4,824
Green 4,735
Con 1,723

CC
Con 7,220
Liberal 6,625
Green 5,028

Durham
Con 16,245
NDP 8,517
Liberal 5,516

[RogueBeaver]

29 vote lead

I'm guessing pundits will spin it as a setback for all parties- Crockatt nearly losing, Victoria on a knife edge, LPC/CPC seriously underperforming in Vic/Durham.

[Hatman 🍁]

Greens are the winners of the night. The NDP will be the losers if they lose Victoria. And even if they win it, they probably still are the losers. But, it's a toss up because it's not a good night for the Liberals or the Tories either.

[doktorb]

Vic
NDP 5,168 v Green 5,095

CC
Con 7,811 v Liberal 7,147

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP lead down to 19 in Vic.

[Meeker]

While the Victoria result is impressive, for their next act the Greens should win a seat not on Vancouver Island.

[doktorb]

Vic
NDP ahead 36.8 of Green 36.2

CC
Con ahead 36.9 of Liberal 33.2

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

We're a few polls away from the halfway point in Victoria.

[doktorb]

Turnouts incidentally

Calgary (Cons leading 220/263 polls reporting) 24.3%
Victoria (NDP leading 125/256 polls reporting) 17.6%
Durham (Cons declared winner  227/236 polls reporting)  33.9%

[RogueBeaver]

CBC projects a Crockatt victory.

Spin; I'd say Grits have work to do in BC/ON, Tories and Dippers work in BC. As for Calgary, poor candidate and the broiling intraparty feud- which I hope gets resolved one way or the other ASAP.

[MaxQue]

Greens are taking the lead.

[Hatman 🍁]

Greens take 3 vote lead. ARGH

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

The Greens take a three vote lead (out of 17,129), as we are up to 135/256 polls reporting in Victoria.

[doktorb]

CC
228/263
Con 8,807
Lib 7,778

Victoria
137/256
Green 6,403
NDP 6,388

[Meeker]

I guess I root for the NDP in general, but given how far away the next election is I don't really think losing this seat will make much of a difference, and it'd be kind of neat to see the Greens with two seats.