The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Phony Moderate]

Romny has no path to the nomination...short him

I didn't realise there was a candidate called "Romny" running.

[Bacon King]

Romny has no path to the nomination...short him

Romney's path to the nomination, in order of the early primary dates:

lose IA
win NH
win NV while losing SC
win FL
lose GA
win ME
win NJ, MN, and ND while losing MO
win WA?
win NV
win WI?
win MI while losing AZ
Super Tuesday: win MA, VA, VT, CO, ID; lose OK, TN, TX

That's 14-16 out of 24 at that point. Then Romney would just have to keep his momentum steady through the six primaries that are later in March until he sweeps all the April primaries (DC, MD, CT, DE, NY, PA, RI). And if there's still a fight even then, he just has to coast until he wins California in June and mathematically locks up the nomination.

Not saying this will happen, of course- but it's a viable path to nomination for him.

[© tweed]

if he gets out of the early states at least neck and neck in terms of media crowning and whatnot (which is likely, because the advertisers that fund the cable programs are sure to prefer Romney to Perry or Bachmann or Palin), he can romp in the big delegate states FL, NY, NJ, CA.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romney will win between 2-12 states, no more...in fact Perry will win more delegates in '12 than McCain did in '08

[© tweed]

Romney will win between 2-12 states, no more...in fact Perry will win more delegates in '12 than McCain did in '08

so go bet on it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Romny has no path to the nomination...short him

Romney's path to the nomination, in order of the early primary dates:

lose IA
win NH
win NV while losing SC
win FL
lose GA
win ME
win NJ, MN, and ND while losing MO
win WA?
win NV
win WI?
win MI while losing AZ
Super Tuesday: win MA, VA, VT, CO, ID; lose OK, TN, TX

That's 14-16 out of 24 at that point. Then Romney would just have to keep his momentum steady through the six primaries that are later in March until he sweeps all the April primaries (DC, MD, CT, DE, NY, PA, RI). And if there's still a fight even then, he just has to coast until he wins California in June and mathematically locks up the nomination.

Not saying this will happen, of course- but it's a viable path to nomination for him.

Romney is far more likely to win AZ then either WI or VA. And you have NV listed twice. Your overall point still stands though.

Plus the GOP is using various forms of proportional delegate allocation. Most are like what CA did in 2008. The bulk of the delegates awarded by CD with a few awarded to the statewide winner. This could help Romney, especially if he wins by a wide enough margin to get every district in his best states, while being able to steal certain CD's in Perry states (NOVA, Metro St. Louis, Nashville). In 2008, CA went to McCain by 8 or 9, but that was enough to give him all but one district and the statewide delegates of course. So you don't need a 30 point win to do that.

The six or seven that are using WTA are mostly Romney states. CT, UT, possibly NJ, etc. I think DE and DC are as well. Only I think MT is an uncertain WTA state, and its late this time.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romney will win between 2-12 states, no more...in fact Perry will win more delegates in '12 than McCain did in '08

so go bet on it.

like I did when I insisted back in Sept 2010 that neither Palin nor Romney was going to be the 2012 nominee? or like I did when I insisted back in March 2010 that Pawlenty had no chance at winning the nomination? or perhaps like I did when I insisted on the night Obama picked Biden that McCain was going select Palin for VP in 08? 

I am the bellwether on this forum for GOP presidential nominees because I closely represent the GOP base, and if I show no interest in a candidate, then that candidate has no chance to win the GOP nomination.  Period.

Aside from a major scandal or a new entry into the race, here are the odds on winning the GOP nomination:

Perry: 95%
Paul: 5% (if the economy goes to hell in a handbasket, people might be desperate enough to have a revolution against government)
everyone else: 0%

[Phony Moderate]

You also predicted that Kerry would win in 2004.

[Keystone Phil]

I am the bellwether on this forum for GOP presidential nominees because I closely represent the GOP base

No.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I am the bellwether on this forum for GOP presidential nominees because I closely represent the GOP base

No.

guess that explains why your main squeeze is riding so high in the polls, eh?! 


in "Does Rick Santorum have a political future?"

no, and all mention of him, even the acknowledgement of his existence, should cease

in "Santorum for VP"

impossible

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

You also predicted that Kerry would win in 2004.

I never predicted Kerry would win the GOP nomination in 2004 or any other year

[© tweed]

I'm not attempting to go through the painstaking process of combating your massive ego, jmf, I'm just kindly suggesting that if you so believe in your own opinion there are opportunities out there to make 3x on your money.

[Mr. Morden]

Naso is the true bellwether, and soul, of the GOP.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I'm not attempting to go through the painstaking process of combating your massive ego, jmf, I'm just kindly suggesting that if you so believe in your own opinion there are opportunities out there to make 3x on your money.

and when I had 99.9% proof (proof, not opinion) that Palin was McCain's pick and Palin was still at 2 on Intrade, did I bet money?  No.  Why?  Because betting on politics is not my thing.  

Besides, Perry could still be caught with a live boy in his bed.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Naso is the true bellwether, and soul, of the GOP.

Ha!  The only Naso I know within the GOP, is Naso himself.  Most members of the GOP would shield their minds from Naso, just as I did by not reading [How Naso became Naso].

Don't get me wrong, I like Naso, but I don't want to go exploring The Mind of Naso.

[© tweed]

have you ever heard of / read the works of this dude?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randall_Balmer

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

have you ever heard of / read the works of this dude?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randall_Balmer

is he related to Naso?  if so, then no.

[Politico]

I'm not attempting to go through the painstaking process of combating your massive ego, jmf, I'm just kindly suggesting that if you so believe in your own opinion there are opportunities out there to make 3x on your money.

and when I had 99.9% proof (proof, not opinion) that Palin was McCain's pick and Palin was still at 2 on Intrade, did I bet money?  No.  Why?  Because betting on politics is not my thing.  

Besides, Perry could still be caught with a live boy in his bed.

Yeah, an 18-year-old Mexican boy. Or maybe he's into the Filipinos?

[Mr. Morden]

Pre-debate update:

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 37.6
Perry 34.5
Huntsman 6.4
Palin 5.1
Bachmann 3.2
Paul 2.5
Christie 1.7
Giuliani 1.7
Gingrich 1.2
Cain 0.7
Johnson 0.6
Roemer 0.3

GOP VP nominee

Rubio 34.0
Huntsman 7.0
McDonnell 7.0
Bachmann 4.5
Christie 4.5
Giuliani 4.0
Romney 4.0
Ryan 4.0
Haley 3.9
Huckabee 3.5
Perry 3.5
Portman 3.5

[The Mikado]

Jon Huntsman fans must really hate money.

[Simfan34]

The statistics seem to show otherwise. The fact that he's third when he isn't third in the polls suggests something different from the point to are trying to make.

[Torie]

Romney will crush Perry in CA. Just sayin'. 

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Romney expands his lead slightly.

GOP nominee

Romney 38.8
Perry 35.3
Huntsman 5.9
Palin 5.1
Bachmann 3.2
Paul 3.0
Christie 1.8
Gingrich 1.5
Giuliani 1.3
Cain 0.7
Johnson 0.6
J. Bush 0.3
Santorum 0.3

Iowa

Perry 55.0
Bachmann 25.0
Paul 9.0
Romney 9.0

New Hampshire

Romney 59.9
Perry 24.5
Huntsman 7.0
Paul 7.0

South Carolina

Perry 65.0
Romney 13.0
Huntsman 6.0
Paul 6.0

[Averroës Nix]

Iowa

Perry 55.0
Bachmann 25.0
Paul 9.0
Romney 9.0

No idea what the trade volumes are in this market, but Romney looks like a really good buy. He definitely has a better chance than Paul of winning IA, and I'd put him well above the quickly-fading Bachmann, too. Romney's chance of winning is at least 25%, and likely higher..

[ag]

Romney's going up. Has he ever been at 40? Perry slightly down, the others are starting to fall farther behind. Minor "revival" for Santorum )

Romney 40.0
Perry 34.9
Huntsman 5.9
Palin 5.0
Bachmann 3.2
Paul 3.2
Christie 1.8
Gingrich 1.4
Giuliani 1.3
Cain 0.7
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.6
J. Bush 0.3
Ryan 0.2
Bolton 0.2
Rubio 0.2