2013 Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Thuringia all in.

turnout 68.2 (+3.0)
CDU 38.8 (+7.6), Left 23.4 (-5.4), SPD 16.1 (-1.4), AfD 6.2, Greens 4.9 (-1.1), NPD 3.2 (0), FDP 2.6 (-7.2), Pirates 2.4 (-0.1)
direct seats CDU 9 (+2), Left 0 (-2)
notional seats CDU 8 (7 if AfD or FDP make it), Left 5 (4 if AfD and FDP both make it), SPD 3, Greens 1, AfD 1, FDP 1 (if either makes it). Overhang only if AfD or FDP makes it. 1 or possibly 2 overhang seats.

[Beezer]

The FDP's niche is that they're supposed to be a free market party that ensures taxes are kept at a low level. Except that they didn't do that in the last coalition which pretty much removed their reason d'etre.

[minionofmidas]

The curse of the Westerwelle continues - SPD hold Bonn. Somehow. They're ten points behind in the list vote, 0.7 up direct. This is a seat the CDU held in 1998.

Meanwhile, the CDU is sweeping Brandenburg (and indeed East Germany) so far.

[minionofmidas]

Bawü all in.

turnout 74.3 (+1.9)
CDU 45.7 (+11.2) SPD 20.6 (+1.3) Greens 11.0 (-2. FDP 6.2 (-12.6) AfD 5.2 Left 4.8 (-2.3)
CDU sweeps all 38 direct seats (+1). Only if FDP and AfD both make it - and there's not much to indicate that either will, at this point - does this create overhang seats.

[Famous Mortimer]

Can someone please explain the Green pedo scandal? I've been trying to find it in the old comments but I'm having some trouble.

[Franknburger]

ARD exit poll on the FDP:

FDP is the most competent party on (2009 / 2013 / change)
Taxes         19 / 6 / -13
Economy    14 / 3 / -11
Health        10/ 4 /  -6

Opinion of 2009 FDP voters on the FDP performance:
"Promised a lot and delivered hardly anything"  90 %
"Cared too much for specific interest groups"     82 %
"Didn't move anything during the last years"     74 %

Any more questions ?

[minionofmidas]

Lower Saxony all in.

turnout 73.4 (+0.1)
CDU 41.1 (+7.9) SPD 33.1 (+3. Greens 8.8 (-1.9) Left 5.0 (-3.5) FDP 4.2 (-9.1) AfD 3.7
CDU 17 direct seats, SPD 13. A few pickups and one trendbucking loss.
notional CDU 28, SPD 22, Greens 6, Left 3

[minionofmidas]

Can someone please explain the Green pedo scandal? I've been trying to find it in the old comments but I'm having some trouble.

The 'scandal' consists of the fact that back in the late 70s / early 80s, legalization of all nonviolent sexual relations was a radical but not entirely fringe notion. Basically.

[Franknburger]

Forget the pedo scandal, that was old stuff from the 1970s. Veggie-day (Green leader Künast calling for one mandatory meat-free day in canteens) was much more relevant.

ARD polling on the Greens:
"Scare voters off with their tax plans"                                                       68 %
"Have moved away from  their voters' interests in the campaign"                59 %
"Want to prescribe people how they should live"                                        50 %

"Should be part of the government"                                                          53 %
"Are honest on what they want to do after the election"                              43 %
[highest rate of all major parties, CDU gets 37%, FDP 25%]

In other words: A crappy campaign and poor/ over-aged leadership managed to turn strong sympathy that extends far beyond the core electorate into an election loss.

[Sozialliberal]

FDP vote holding up surprisingly well in superposh urban precincts. Left holding up much much better in the city than in rural parts of the state.

Here's a precinct Al may remember... 441 08, the Platen estate

CDU 84 17,3 %
SPD 218 44,9 %
FDP 5 1,0 %
Greens 58 12,0 %
Left 84 17,3 %
Pirate 12 2,5 %
AfD 17 3,5 %

How come FDP is doing so miserably? Isn't they supposed to be the Liberal Party? Or have they become more far right? Are they considered to the right of CDU? I read somewhere that they were regarded as the (big) business party. Which surprised me as I thought that would be CDU? And normally liberal parties, or at least the European style social liberal parties, tend to be small business parties, not advocating the needs of big businesses, as that's the aim of the conservative parties, and to a lesser extent, the social democratic parties.

Or is the reason simply that their party leader is extremely unpopular? And why would that be? Does he simply lack any kind of charisma? Or is it his policy positions that are the problem?

I'm glad to see The Greens holding up fairly well.

Let me clarify this for you: The German FDP is not a social liberal party like Venstre in Norway. It's an economic liberal party. Well, the FDP actually used to be a social liberal party in the 1970s, but that was a long time ago. If you asked me what Norwegian party is most similar to the German FDP, I'd say DLF (the one that was founded in 1992), though the FDP is more moderate and not generally sceptical about the EU. I'm glad they're gone now.

So what is/has been their reason for existence the last couple decades? Were they filling a political niche not reasonably covered by the CDU?

The CDU's ideology used to be social conservatism rather than economic liberalism.  However, the CDU has moved a lot towards the left under Merkel's leadership. The CDU doesn't have any real ideology currently apart from "Merkel is fantastic!". A lot of conservative people feel that the CDU isn't "their" party anymore.

[minionofmidas]

It's not "Merkel is fantastic", it's "Merkel will manage for me so I don't have to worry about how difficult to understand the world has become".

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently Steinmeier's seat is very close, so was Steinbruck's a while ago but the latter tops the list... and I assume Steinmeier's up there too as their leader in the Bundestag. FDP still at 4.9% with 50 constituencies left.

[minionofmidas]

SPD gains Bielefeld, Berlin begins to report: CDU holds Spandau and Tempelhof-Schöneberg, Left holds Treptow-Köpenick.

[Franknburger]

It's not "Merkel is fantastic", it's "Merkel will manage for me so I don't have to worry about how difficult to understand the world has become".

It's not even that,  it is "Merkel does not have a clue, but she listens to public opinion and changes her policy when it is becoming unpopular". In other words - System Merkel is direct democracy at work (opinion-poll transmitted).

[minionofmidas]

Apparently Steinmeier's seat is very close

It's possible - neighboring Potsdam was also only a very narrow CDU gain. But I'm expecting that hasbeen to lose.

[Hatman 🍁]

Are there any seats in particular the FDP might want to focus on to win seats in the future, if they are stuck in 'below the threshold land'? Or is their vote too thinly distributed for that to ever be a possibility?

[minionofmidas]

It's not "Merkel is fantastic", it's "Merkel will manage for me so I don't have to worry about how difficult to understand the world has become".

It's not even that,  it is "Merkel does not have a clue, but she listens to public opinion and changes her policy when it is becoming unpopular".

That's what she's actually doing, but it's not what motivates her fans.

[Hifly]

Apparently Steinmeier's seat is very close

It's possible - neighboring Potsdam was also only a very narrow CDU gain. But I'm expecting that hasbeen to lose.

I thought Steinmeier's seat was confirmed as an SPD hold (narrowly).

[Zanas]

It's still depressing to see that inside the "left" the SPD has actually gained nearly 3 points, whereas the Greens, who are in my opinion the only ones to actually have true new progressive ideas at times, and the Linke, who are the only ones who come close to being somewhat "left-wing", both lost, 3 and 2 points respectively. Very depressing.

Also, on the Bundeswahlleiter site, the count with 254 out of 299 constituencies counted has die Linke at 7.9 and Grünen at 8.2, FDP at 4.8 and AfD at only 4.6. I guess the projections we see on TV take into account that the remaining constituencies lean a bit more Linke and AfD, is that it ?

[minionofmidas]

Oh wow, you're right. I overlooked that. That makes Frank-Walter Steinmeier (at least so far) the only non-CDU direct MdB from East Germany outside of Berlin.
Hil. Effing. Arious.

[Zanas]

Are there any seats in particular the FDP might want to focus on to win seats in the future, if they are stuck in 'below the threshold land'? Or is their vote too thinly distributed for that to ever be a possibility?

Well, seeing as this time around their two best results so far are 9.2% in Düsseldorf I and 8.5% in Bonn, a direct mandate victory doesn't seem to be on the agenda... But anything can happen. Hopefully they die. And so does the SPD.

[minionofmidas]

Also, on the Bundeswahlleiter site, the count with 254 out of 299 constituencies counted has die Linke at 7.9 and Grünen at 8.2, FDP at 4.8 and AfD at only 4.6. I guess the projections we see on TV take into account that the remaining constituencies lean a bit more Linke and AfD, is that it ?

Everything that's still out is all of Hamburg, all of Bremen, most of Berlin, some random East German seats, some SPD stronghold inner city seats from NRW, and a lot of Hesse. Do the math.
I guess it's possible AfD remains behind the FDP in the end. It's certainly not possible that the FDP's vote goes anywhere but down, though.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The bitterness over Merkel's popularity from some posters are like sweet music to my ears.

[minionofmidas]

Actually, Hamburg's just started reporting. SPD hold Altona, gain Wandsbek.

Bavaria now all in. CSU 49.3 (+6.7), SPD 20.0 (+3.1), Greens 8.4 (-2.4), FDP 5.1 (-9.6), AfD 4.3, Left 3.8 (-2.7). CSU continues to hold all direct seats, of course.

[Zanas]

Also, on the Bundeswahlleiter site, the count with 254 out of 299 constituencies counted has die Linke at 7.9 and Grünen at 8.2, FDP at 4.8 and AfD at only 4.6. I guess the projections we see on TV take into account that the remaining constituencies lean a bit more Linke and AfD, is that it ?

Everything that's still out is all of Hamburg, all of Bremen, most of Berlin, some random East German seats, some SPD stronghold inner city seats from NRW, and a lot of Hesse. Do the math.
I guess it's possible AfD remains behind the FDP in the end. It's certainly not possible that the FDP's vote goes anywhere but down, though.

I'm sorry I can't just "do the math". I am capable of understanding politics and elections, and even some sociology, but I don't know by heart the strongholds of the ones and the others.

And it seems my question is being answered : ZDF is now projecting FDP ahead of AfD and Greens ahead of Linke.