NY-09, Special Election Thread

[J. J.]

Queens is tied again, but turner is now at 75% in Brooklyn (14 reporting).

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Out of curiosity, what kind of numbers was Weiner getting out of Brooklyn?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Ah well. He won't win in 2012, and if anything NY-09 is on the chopping block.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Weiner barely won Brooklyn in '10 (about 52-48, I think) while winning districtwide 61-39. I believe Obama lost the Brooklyn portion of the district while getting 60% in Queens.

[redcommander]

Turner now at 77% percent in Brooklyn lol.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Weiner barely won Brooklyn in '10 (about 52-48, I think) while winning districtwide 61-39. I believe Obama lost the Brooklyn portion of the district while getting 60% in Queens.

Thanks.

[Marston]

Down to 23% in Brooklyn. Ouch.

[Wonkish1]

Out of curiosity, what kind of numbers was Weiner getting out of Brooklyn?

A hell of a lot better than this.

[Torie]

Yes, Turner has won. Queens has only about 25 precincts that McCain carried, and the Brooklyn portion is very Pubbie. It's totally over. And Turner will end up with a much more GOP district next time, because thanks to the VRA, most of it will be in Brooklyn. Yes Brooklyn. Trust me. . Weiner really F the Dems doing what he did at redistricting time. It should be at least a 10% margin, maybe more. It's a blowout. I wonder what repercussions it will have?

[Keystone Phil]

Dem spin: Hey, remember when we won Chris Lee's seat?

[J. J.]

Yes, Turner has won. Queens has only about 25 precincts that McCain carried, and the Brooklyn portion is very Pubbie. It's totally over. And Turner will end up with a much more GOP district next time, because thanks to the VRA, most of it will be in Brooklyn. Yes Brooklyn. Trust me. . Weiner really F the Dems doing what he did at redistricting time. It should be at least a 10% margin, maybe more. It's a blowout. I wonder what repercussions it will have?






It depends on how well Turner does in Queens.  You can say Brooklyn was do to the Orthodox angry on same sex marriage and support for Israel (for some).  Queens in another story.

[J. J.]

Turner now at 77% percent in Brooklyn lol.

Weprin is up to 28%!

[Wonkish1]

I don't buy that Turner will get a more a GOP friendly district.

I bet the GOP in the senate will trade him for Hochul. The guys 70 years old. But he will still run again when his district gets carved into its neighbors.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is starting to look actively embarrassing.

[Torie]

McCain did pretty well in Forest Hills actually, losing by only a relatively modest margin. I suspect Turner will carry Forest Hills. There are much more Dem parts of Queens in the CD. And I predict Forest Hills will be in the new CD as well, one of the few parts of Queens that will, along with the bits of Queens due south.

[cinyc]

Current interpolation has Turner winning 55-44, though it's probably Brooklyn heavy and more Weprin-friendly areas of Queens have come in recently.

[Keystone Phil]

This is starting to look actively embarrassing.

January 20, 2009 was such a long time ago though.

[Wonkish1]

Forest Hills is the most populated piece of Queens in the district right?

I mean Welprin wasn't seriously hoping that Kew Gardens and Fresh Meadows to carry him was he??

Do those two areas even add up to the population of Forest Hills?

[Marston]

Weprin is going in the right direction in Queens (up 53-47) so maybe his loss won't be terribly huge.

[Progressive]

Forest Hills is the most populated piece of Queens in the district right?

I mean Welprin wasn't seriously hoping that Kew Gardens and Fresh Meadows to carry him was he??

Do those two areas even add up to the population of Forest Hills?

Only sections of Kew Gardens are Orthodox there's a really big Latino, South Asian/Indo-Caribbean and LGBT population that will vote Weprin

[Filuwaúrdjan]

215/512: Turner 51

Brooklyn: Turner 70 (39/170)
Queens: Weprin 53 (176/342)

[Wonkish1]

I know those areas are more liberal, but they certainly aren't very big.

[Torie]

Forest Hills is the most populated piece of Queens in the district right?

I mean Welprin wasn't seriously hoping that Kew Gardens and Fresh Meadows to carry him was he??

Do those two areas even add up to the population of Forest Hills?

Forest Hills is maybe about 15% of the district in Queens - at most. So that means it may be about 10% of the total CD. Again there are much more Dem parts of Queens in the CD than Forest Hills - much more.

[Meeker]

For anyone who's read something about it, the special election in Assembly District 54 is currently 40% Espinal, 31% Gonzalez and 28% Towns. 54% reporting.

[J. J.]

Half of Queens is in; Weprin is up 53%.  Turner is down to 70%.