France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin ).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

[big bad fab]

Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.

So Sarkozy (and the UMP by extension) is screwed no matter what. 

All the polls aren't so clear, but it's anyway razor-thin for him.

[big bad fab]

Just read some posts above in this thread.

It's not so obvious.
Hollande is on the rise and may naturally bring some moderate socialists with him.
But, among the apparatchiki, he is not loved by DSK supporters, who may join Aubry.

As Aubry controls the machine, the apparatus and has the support of all the left of the party, plus Fabius, plus Delanoë, she has a central positioning which is a real strength. I keep repeating it: without DSK (and I said this before all this mess), Aubry is very well positioned.
Hollande is a bit too much on the right.

So, it may be a "anyone but Hollande" campaign now.
Only Royal will not choose between the 2. Royal hates Aubry, but she also hates her ex-husband Hollande. But, in a second round (as thre wouldn't be a winner in the first round among those 3, plus some other contenders), Royal voters may well switch to Aubry more than to Hollande.

The great asset of Hollande now is that he has a positive media image.
Even though Libération and Le Nouvel Obs (and all the leftists from Mediapart and Rue89) may well support Aubry.

BUT.... DSK is still here. He isn't guilty of anything for the moment. So, wait and see.

[big bad fab]

Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.

I haven't said that Le Pen is on the rise again, probably because... Besancenot isn't a candidate any longer !

I've already underlined this direct relation between far-left and far-right and this seems to be right again (Panzergirl is at 40% among bluecollars and is first among employees...).
It's confirmed.

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for Paris-Match and Europe 1, 20-21 April, sample 917

(...)

Sarkozy - Le Pen 73 - 27 (which is better for Panzergirl than for Daddy in 2002)

DSK - Le Pen 75- 25
Hollande - Le Pen 72 - 28
Aubry - Le Pen 69 - 31

No Royal-Le Pen, but, considering Aubry is "only" at 69 %, we can assume Royal is at 65%, at most.

Please see above.

All the presidential polls are published here, as soon as they are available in a complete manner.

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for Le Journal du Dimanche, 10-12 May 2011, 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010

Here we are.

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

In fact, they haven't tested Aubry...

So, yes, Marion "Marine" Le Pen is on the rise again due to Besancenot's decision not to run.
Another evidence that, if Sarkozy has lost his 2007 gains, the PS is unable to reach to popular electorate.

In another hypothesis, without Villepin and Dupont-Aignan, it was DSK and Bayrou who gained... A bit surprising, but another evidence that DSK was high because he was able to gather voters from the centre-right.

DSK 28
Le Pen 22.5
Sarkozy 22
Bayrou 7
Borloo 6.5
Hulot 6
Mélenchon 5.5
Chevènement 1
NPA candidate 1
Arthaud 0.5

Now, without DSK, we'll probably go back to a classical fight.

Sarkozy must be above Le Pen, so he'll keep on a far-rightist strategy, hoping that Borloo won't make him too bad. Bayrou may become an objective ally of Sarkozy, like in 2007, by weakening the left, especially if it's Aubry.

Hulot will become even more a problem for the socialists, who will try to influence the Green primary to kill him. And with the current system, Hulot is far from sure to be nominated as theri candidate.

A re-run of  2007 campaign and strategies, with more uncertain results and final results as in 2002 ?

The problem for Sarkozy is that, even if he eventually wins, he won't have a majority in the National Assembly, as hate is so deep towards him...

At least, suspense is back in the 2012 French elections.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #2 - 16 May 2011

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly.

I've said that I'd keep 3 trackers with DSK, Aubry and Hollande, until the scene is clearer.
My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is already changed: 0.1 instead of 0.6 DSK, 0.5 instead of 0.3 Hollande and 0.4 instead of 0.1 Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate (I've said that this ponderation would change quickly and periodically... wow... I wasn't aware how right it could be).

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and will lose a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...


16 May DSK sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,79
NPA   2,48
Mélenchon   4,75
Chevènement   0,98
DSK   26,02
Hulot   8,21
Bayrou   5,70
Borloo   6,53
Villepin   4,33
Sarkozy   19,51
Dupont-Aignan   0,87
Le Pen   19,83


16 May Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,64
NPA   2,93
Mélenchon   4,41
Chevènement   0,90
Aubry   21,17
Hulot   8,65
Bayrou   6,31
Borloo   10,03
Villepin   4,50
Sarkozy   19,96
Dupont-Aignan   1,00
Le Pen   19,49


16 May Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,68
NPA   2,37
Mélenchon   4,61
Chevènement   1,10
Hollande   22,01
Hulot   8,36
Bayrou   6,11
Borloo   8,18
Villepin   4,40
Sarkozy   20,37
Dupont-Aignan   0,83
Le Pen   20,97


16 May generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,68
NPA   2,61
Mélenchon   4,55
Chevènement   1,01
PS   22,07
Hulot   8,46
Bayrou   6,15
Borloo   8,76
Villepin   4,44
Sarkozy   20,12
Dupont-Aignan   0,90
Le Pen   20,26

Even slightly on the rise, Sarkozy is still not able to be above Le Pen.
NPA candidate is gradually fading away.
Things are more levelled in the centre ground.
The aggregate PS candidate is of course lower, with DSK being hugely minored now.

[big bad fab]

Just for the record, with 2 weeks of Big Bad Tracker

9 May   16 May   
0,9   0,79   Arthaud
3,19   2,48   NPA
4,47   4,75   Mélenchon
0,9   0,98   Chevènement
26,19   26,02   DSK
8,54   8,21   Hulot
5,67   5,70   Bayrou
6,84   6,53   Borloo
4,46   4,33   Villepin
18,77   19,51   Sarkozy
1   0,87   Dupont-Aignan
19,07   19,83   Le Pen

0,64   0,64   Arthaud
3,12   2,93   NPA
4,41   4,41   Mélenchon
0,82   0,90   Chevènement
21,26   21,17   Aubry
8,55   8,65   Hulot
6,23   6,31   Bayrou
9,83   10,03   Borloo
4,61   4,50   Villepin
19,96   19,96   Sarkozy
0,98   1,00   Dupont-Aignan
19,59   19,49   Le Pen

0,79   0,68   Arthaud
3,14   2,37   NPA
4,43   4,61   Mélenchon
0,86   1,10   Chevènement
21,5   22,01   Hollande
8,71   8,36   Hulot
6,14   6,11   Bayrou
9   8,18   Borloo
4,86   4,40   Villepin
19,57   20,37   Sarkozy
1   0,83   Dupont-Aignan
20   20,97   Le Pen

0,8   0,7   Arthaud
3,2   2,6   NPA
4,4   4,5   Mélenchon
0,9   1,0   Chevènement
24,2   22,1   PS
8,6   8,5   Hulot
5,9   6,2   Bayrou
8,0   8,8   Borloo
4,6   4,5   Villepin
19,2   20,1   Sarkozy
1,0   0,9   Dupont-Aignan
19,2   20,2   Le Pen

[big bad fab]

Thank you, Antonio... I'm really sorry , it's fixed now .

Just 2 mistakes on Villepin and Le Pen in 2 different polls: I've added one more point to each of them.
(and don't take too much attention to the generic PS tracker, as it appears as rounded, but I've taken precise intermediate results)

It's probably a conspiracy to destroy the grrrrrrrrreat scientific value of this tracker.
I'm considering a sue !!!!!

[big bad fab]

Rue89 has now a very detailed story on Tristane Banon, daughter of Anne Mansouret, a local PS politician from Eure and also one of this series of very small candidates to the PS primary.

I guess that if Libération's title is "DSK out" and if Rue89 writes on all the past sex affairs of DSK, it's really over for him.

Even Aurélie Filipetti, socialist and ex-Green MP, had said she was "pressed" by DSK and took care of not staying alone with him.

Well, the right has nothing to do... just to look at this self-destruction.
The big fear is of course that it would be Panzergirl and not the right that could be a big winner after this new sequence.

Reasonably, Hulot and Borloo should be boosted a bit, but Le Pen may well be solidifying her high support... Sigh...

[big bad fab]

It's not complete yet, but there was a Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien (13-14 May, sample 1050) for PS primaries:

among the whole sample / among socialists
DSK 34 / 41
Hollande 24 / 25
Aubry 18 / 16

Hollande should be the internal winner, as he has not the burden of trying to keep socialists' unity and as Aubry will appear as candidate by default.
She has an angry personality and Hollande connects well with people, especially journalists...

But, still, let's be cautious: I've already said and said again that she is strategically at the centre of the PS.

Delanoë (and even Fabius) may be regretting to have supported Aubry so early... They could have become ideal "new" candidates... (even though Fabius has gathered too many enemies from all sides inside the party)

Of course, Jospin would be even more successful inside the party now, with its old man's wiseness and his personal integrity....
(sorry to be unwillingly so rude to you, Antonio but that's just true, I think)

[big bad fab]

Well... I've corrected too much: 4.61 and not 4.50 for Villepin in 9 May Aubry sub-tracker...


Reading what I've read on past affairs, I'm afraid he may be guilty.

You are right: better that he's guilty in a way...

[big bad fab]

Back online for a brief period (maybe). Has this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13411463) been posted yet?

Yes, sir, though it was by referring to a French media. Sorry.

Rue89 has now a very detailed story on Tristane Banon, daughter of Anne Mansouret, a local PS politician from Eure and also one of this series of very small candidates to the PS primary.

I guess that if Libération's title is "DSK out" and if Rue89 writes on all the past sex affairs of DSK, it's really over for him.

Even Aurélie Filipetti, socialist and ex-Green MP, had said she was "pressed" by DSK and took care of not staying alone with him.

Well, the right has nothing to do... just to look at this self-destruction.
The big fear is of course that it would be Panzergirl and not the right that could be a big winner after this new sequence.

Reasonably, Hulot and Borloo should be boosted a bit, but Le Pen may well be solidifying her high support... Sigh...

[big bad fab]

Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien (13-14 May, sample 1050)

among the whole sample / among socialists
DSK 34 / 41
Hollande 24 / 25
Aubry 18 / 16
Royal 11 / 7
Montebourg 5 / 6
Valls 3 / 4
none 3 / 1
don't know 2 / 0

This is now complete and I re-publish it will all the numbers (and a Royal amazingly low).

[big bad fab]

Currently, French TVs have images of DSK in front of the judge and it's repeating all over news channels...

This is really very, very unusual here...

I don't know how people will eventually react.

There may be a reflex of defense, good for the socialists globally speaking.
There may also be a conclusion that, after all, Sarkozy isn't so abnormal and obscene...
There may be people disgusted with politics and joining abstention camp.

Hollande, Borloo, Hulot should be the short-term winners.
Le Pen will solidify more than gain voters.
Sarkozy may be a medium-term winner.
And Aubry is quite strong now if (a big if) she has enough tactical maestria.
I really fear she might become our next president...
(Please, God, help us )

[big bad fab]

As I'm a "French poster", I must say one thing:

please understand that it's first hard to believe (despite DSK's own past, but a past "only" of divorces, mistresses and adulteries, not of violence)
because precisely it's DSK.
You, non-French, don't know him for years and years (as for me, I've been aware of him and his political career since... 1985 !).

When you are "used", "accustomed" to a person, especially when it's a media star and so when you think (wrongly) that you know him at least a bit,
it's difficult to believe such a thing.

And, what is more, for political fans, the political consequences are so huge that 24 hours aren't really an eternity to begin to acknowledge that it may be true.

I'm a French social conservative, which is almost an extinct species in France , and a UMP member, so you can't believe I'm biased towards DSK...

FTR, even Christine Boutin, head of the small Christian-Democrat Party, first believed in a conspiracy...

My own first reaction was to think about a fake accusation by a woman who wanted money, just that, because, very often, reasons of events are prosaic.

With all the past elements now revealed in French medias, especially in left medias, it's very likely that he is guilty.

When you see that a French socialist MP, Filipetti, said in 2007 that she was cautious not to be alone with DSK in the same room, well... it's done... and it's of course utterly disgusting, as rape is among the nastiest of tortures.

[big bad fab]

Back to business, the only interesting one here

Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 15-16 May 2011, sample 802
on socialist primaries

Let's be careful, the sample is tiny, but still, the gap is huge:

among the socialists / among the whole left
Hollande 49 / 37
Aubry 23 / 22
Royal 10 / 14
Montebourg 1 / 4
Valls 3 / 2
nobe of them 14 / 21

Considering the socialists are the most likely to vote, this is good for Hollande.
Let's hope Royal will mess some things around, forcing Aubry to deal with lil' quarrels inside the party and Hollande will be safe.

(great news ! )

[big bad fab]

CSA poll for 20 Minutes:

Hollande 23
Sarkozy 22
Le Pen 20

Aubry 23
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 19

Royal 18
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 20

No big change here.
In the first round, Borloo gains 4 points (from 4 to , Bayrou between 2 and 4 points.

I'll re-publish it when we have complete results.

(Guys, I'm desperately trying to put the discussion back to the main subject of this thread... )

[big bad fab]

His word for the moment is "a normal president"...

[big bad fab]

OK, let's talk about politics .

CSA poll, for 20 Minutes and BFM TV, 16 May 2011, sample 838 RVs among a total sample of 1007

Presidential election, first round:

Hollande 23 / Aubry 23 / Royal 18
Sarkozy 22 / 23 / 23
Le Pen 20 / 19 / 20
Borloo 8 / 8 / 10
Bayrou 7 / 7 / 9
Villepin 4 / 4 / 4
Hulot 6 / 6 / 6
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5
NPA candidate 2 / 2 / 2
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 2 / 2 / 2

Amazing result for Dupont-Aignan .
Chevènement hasn't been included.

There is one problem with this poll: it's too perfect to be good.
In all the other polls, numbers vary stupidly depending on the hypothesis, as if people change their mind on Sarkozy, Dupont-Aignan or Arthaud just because it's Aubry instead of Hollande.
It may seem stupid in some cases, but I'm convinced it's true.

Here, Hulot, the 3 far-left candidates, Villepin and Dupont-Aignan are remarkably stable. That's a bit suspicious.

The big points are that, without DSK, everything is razor-thin between Sarkozy, the PS and Panzergirl,
and that the "centre" is a wide and moving area, up fro grabs: Hulot is a bit down (is his momentum already over ?), Borloo is in good shape though not stratospheric and Bayrou is higher but we can't see how he could remake his 2007 rise.

This election will be won in the centre, contrary to what Sarkozy and some of his advisers think.
And Hollande is the best choice for the PS in this respect.
Villepin and Mélenchon are stuck to their numbers.

[big bad fab]

CSA poll, for 20 Minutes and BFM TV, 16 May 2011, sample 838 RVs among a total sample of 1007

Socialist primary election:

among the whole sample / among socialists
Hollande 33 / 42
Aubry 23 / 22
Royal 20 / 18
Montebourg 3 / 3
Valls 2 / 2
Moscovici 2 / 1
none 7 / 5
don't know 10 / 7

It's quite in line with Harris, though Royal is higher.

What is surprising in these 2 polls is that the advantage for Hollande is bigger among socialists than among French people in general.

The current media buzz in favour of Aubry ("she can't decline being a candidate"), which I don't really understand in the way it occurs (feminism ? huge leftist bias in French medias ?) -though it'd be of course logical for her to declare a candidacy-, seems not to be in line with what is the reality: among rank-and-file, those who supported DSK will mostly support Hollande.

[big bad fab]

If you manage to read back in this thread the most recent polls I've posted (), here is the 3rd one in a row with Hollande largely ahead of Aubry in primary election:

OpinionWay for Le Figaro and LCI, 17-18 May 2011, sample 974 leftist voters (584 socialists, 201 Greens, 189 far-leftists and 193 likely voters in the primary)

among the whole left / among the socialists / among the likely voters

Hollande 49 / 51 / 62
Aubry 27 / 28 / 22
Royal 12 / 13 / 9
Montebourg 7 / 4 / 4
Valls 5 / 4 / 3
(no choice 13 / 9 / 6)

The gap is really significant, even if the last 2 samples are tinier.
No real mini-surge here for Royal, just a big gain for Hollande.

And another hilarious hypothesis, with Delanoë and Fabius and humiliating results for the latter and disappointing ones for the former:

Hollande 45 / 47 / 51
Aubry 24 / 25 / 20
Royal 9 / 10 / 9
Delanoë 9 / 9 / 10
Montebourg 5 / 2 / 3
Valls 5 / 4 / 3
Fabius 3 / 3 / 4 (LOL , but also as he doesn't deserve such a result)
(no choice 11 / 6 / 6)

Delanoë and Fabius steals votes from all the candidates, except from Valls.
Hollande remains very high.

It seems that Aubry is now pushed to the left of the party. If this is confirmed, it would be a great victory for Hollande as he is able both to be in the center and on the right, ready to grasp centrist voters outside the party.
A pity Hamon isn't tested, so that we can try to confirm this hypothesis.

Of course, we must remain very cautious: I'm not so sure so many people will vote (20% likely voters among the whole left). And those who will vote may be quite different.
And, of course, OpinionWay polls for rightist medias (though we have already noted that they are far from being a joke pollster since 2009).
But, still, Hollande is precisely higher among those who are the surest to vote...

After Harris and CSA, this is the 3rd pollster to have the same trend and a similar gap.
Of course, let's wait for more serious ones, IPSOS, IFOP or SOFRES.

This pre-primary race is now fascinating .
Enjoy it !
We are completely americanized, now :
- DSK in jail
- Daddy Sarkozy
- pre-primary campaign and selection
- non-candidates who are campaigning a bit without being really sure (Borloo, Villepin)
- primaries in small parties (Greens, FG, even NPA in a way).

We really need a VP, now: that would allow Sarkozy to have Borloo and to smooth his image .
And Hollande could pick a young woman or a minority guy or a Green.

[big bad fab]

Who is a person like me supposed to support, anyway? Sarkozy? I don't particularly like him, but I don't think his policies are terrible. Is there any credible right-wing alternative?

Borloo isn't exactly your kind of candidate (too "social"), but if you don't want to vote for Sarkozy that's your best alternative. In the second round, you'd almost certainly vote for Sarkozy (which makes you a HP ).

Wait, Franzl is more centrist than myself and Borloo is quite fine for him.

Méhaignerie would be the closest for Franzl .

[big bad fab]

Are the polls just assuming DSK is washed up or are they actually polling for him and coming up with him having no support now?

Just read the last 3 pages of this thread.
DSK isn't polled any longer...

The only poll that is related to him is the CSA one, but I haven't posted these numbers: 57% of French people think it's a conspiracy or a manipulation against him...

[big bad fab]

I hate Aubry because she is an angry and frustrated person and she created a big lie for young people in 1997: "emplois-jeunes", badly paid and uninteresting jobs in public services, a sort of lumpen-proletariate of the State and the local bodies, where they only learn how to work slowly and where the "real" civil servants became used to have these free servants (free as they were paid centrally, not by the local organizations).

Regarding her positioning, which I found very strategic until now (because it was central in the party), it seems that it is changing and that she may be now too much to the left.

I think she has 2 main weaknesses:

- she will be seen as a candidate by default and, what is more, she is more a candidate for Primpe Minister, as if we were in a parliamentarian regime, than a presidential candidate; the current calls by all the apparatchiki for her to decalre her candidacy are ridiculous: "she must be a candidate because she unites the socialists..."; well, they haven't understood the 1962 constitutional reform...

- if she is still far behind Hoàllande in mid-June, Delanoë may well drop her and enter the race: she has no big troops behind her, she is first secretary only because Fabius, Delanoë and DSK's lieutenants picked her in 2008 to kill Royal.

Hollande is outside the apparatus and the fact that he has never been a minister is even an asset these days...

Her only strength is to be a woman.
Because, one day or the other, medias could be fond just of this idea if there is no other "story" to tell during the campaign.

In that respect, the "normal president" positionong of Hollande is fine against DSK and Sarkozy but may backfire if medias become bored and want something "new".
But it may be too late at that time, as candidacies will be closed the 13th of July.