Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

Deal and Perdue (lol @ Mr Racial Gaffe Master standing a chance there now) won Gwinnett by 8 in ‘14. Isakson won it by not quite 4 in ‘16 while Clinton won it by about 6. Could Abrams get it to over 5? Especially with her Latino / Asian outreach? Either way, I see Isakson being the last R to win there for a long time. Especially with Kemp, Trump , and Perdue being on the ticket over the next cycle.

Unless her performance in rural GA as a whole is unprecedentedly strong, she'll likely need to win Gwinnett by double-digits (or damn near it) to have a chance at winning a majority.

See my benchmarks:

Margin by County
Swing by County

Could you add these to the main post? Other users and myself may be looking for them when the day of reckoning is upon us.

Sure thing - added.

[Virginiá]

thanks my doods!

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1049111907007909888

Not really posting to dissect this, but this never happened before? LOL. Seems like a no-brainer to run ads for Governor when a lot of people from your state would be tuned in.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1049111907007909888

Not really posting to dissect this, but this never happened before? LOL. Seems like a no-brainer to run ads for Governor when a lot of people from your state would be tuned in.

Yeah, I actually saw her ad. I was shocked lol.

That's a bold move.

[Virginiá]

Yeah, I actually saw her ad. I was shocked lol.

That's a bold move.

What ad was it?

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://youtu.be/ZaWT224ZvN0

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Yeah, I actually saw her ad. I was shocked lol.

That's a bold move.

What ad was it?

It was just a generic campaign ad. She had some people basically say that Brian Kemp is crazy and then made a little statement at the end.

[Adam Griffin]

Good to see some persuasion strategy utilized here. I'd wager the reason nobody's ever ran an ad on this channel/for this game before is because even persuasion-minded Democratic campaigns of the past considered baseball watchers too old and too white to be reasoned with, lol.


And BTW, I saw this ad on TV during primetime in the Chattanooga media market for the first time a few days ago. Prior to that, there had been no Abrams ads running here in the general. I guess this is the "white ad" that they're running to pitch to very conservative/white audiences.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia Votes now has a feature that breaks down the vote by each individual county.

For example, here's what it says about Newton County where I live:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

When it comes to gender right now females have outvoted males 59.3-39.2 and by race blacks have outvoted whites 68.4-19.6

So Abrams is more than likely KILLING it here right now.

[libertpaulian]

Georgia Votes now has a feature that breaks down the vote by each individual county.

For example, here's what it says about Newton County where I live:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

When it comes to gender right now females have outvoted males 59.3-39.2 and by race blacks have outvoted whites 68.4-19.6

So Abrams is more than likely KILLING it here right now.

When do the debates start?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia Votes now has a feature that breaks down the vote by each individual county.

For example, here's what it says about Newton County where I live:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

When it comes to gender right now females have outvoted males 59.3-39.2 and by race blacks have outvoted whites 68.4-19.6

So Abrams is more than likely KILLING it here right now.

When do the debates start?

I think there are two, Oct. 23 for the Atlanta Press Club and Nov. 4 for WSB-TV.

[Adam Griffin]

So glad they finally added the county breakdowns! There are a few errors in his data (for example, I noticed there are no votes recorded for Muscogee, when in fact, there are a handful) and the figures may be behind by a day or so, but nevertheless, great.

I've mapped out the percentages for each county in terms of how much higher or lower they are when compared to 2014. Click on the link below to explore each county's figures (click on a county for info). It's kind of hard to pick a gradient that shows the distinction between counties since the variance is so massive, but alas:

VBM By County (% Higher/Lower Than 2014) - As Of 10/8



And here's a list of the county figures in simple format:

Code:

COUNTY		% Higher/Lower Than 2014
Macon		2166.7
Hancock		1900
Jackson		1472.7
Early		        1342.9
Johnson		1225
Clay		        1200
Baker		1100
Thomas		727.3
Jefferson		641.7
Pulaski		520
Decatur		519
Clayton		518.7
Lowndes		500
Whitfield		468.2
Calhoun		460
Franklin		360
Camden		347.8
Lamar		335.3
Upson		320.7
Butts		        291.3
Rockdale		287.8
Henry		281.3
Douglas		272
Meriwether	270
Houston		267.6
Cobb		        264.2
Taliaferro		250
Laurens		248.6
Crawford		242.9
Elbert		238.3
Bartow		231.4
Spalding		228.8
Crisp		        222.7
Paulding		218.8
Ben Hill		215.4
Washington       214.3
Lee		        200
Emanuel		196
Forsyth		194.4
Mitchell		186.2
DeKalb		185.6
Colquitt		182.6
Barrow		182.5
Dodge		182.4
Toombs		182.4
Newton		178
Gwinnett		174.6
Oconee		173.5
Cherokee		168.8
Wilkes		168.4
Screven		166.7
Fulton		165.4
Glascock		160
Monroe		160
Rabun		159.2
Effingham		157.8
Bulloch		156.9
Union		153.6
Grady		150
Randolph		149
Bacon		146.2
Baldwin		139.4
Clarke		136.9
Chatham		136.4
Cook		        135.5
Harris		134
Richmond		128.7
Irwin		        120
Lincoln		111.1
Appling		110.6
Jasper		110
Tift		        107.3
Bryan		105.3
Wilkinson		104
Echols		100
Talbot		100
Walker		100
Carroll		97.8
Tattnall		97.4
Catoosa		97.2
Floyd		92.4
Warren		91.7
Walton		89.8
Evans		89.5
Hart		        89.3
Lanier		87.5
Glynn		81.1
Morgan		79.4
Pierce		76.5
Fannin		76.3
Berrien		73
Wilcox		71
Gordon		70.9
Heard		67.4
Dawson		65.9
Polk		        58.7
Columbia		50
Oglethorpe	50
Banks		47.6
Haralson		47.1
Coweta		46.4
Stephens		45.1
Gilmer		42.3
Charlton		41.7
Miller		40
Sumter		38.5
McIntosh		38
Lumpkin		37.8
Schley		33.3
Bleckley		31.9
Quitman		28.6
Troup		26.8
Brooks		25.4
Brantley		23.1
Montgomery	23.1
Towns		22.2
Terrell		19.3
Dade		        16.7
McDuffie		7.2
Jones		6.9
Putnam		1.6
Marion		-3.4
Burke		-7.1
Madison		-7.2
Bibb		        -10.9
Worth		-12
Twiggs		-12.1
Clinch		-12.5
Greene		-18.4
Jeff Davis		-23.1
Fayette		-26.2
Pike		        -30.4
Dooly		-33.3
Jenkins		-33.3
Chattooga		-35.5
White		-40.5
Stewart		-50
Seminole		-53.8
Hall		        -54.3
Taylor		-55.6
Murray		-74.2
Peach		-87.5
Ware		        -90.8
Wheeler		-97.2
Wayne		-98
Atkinson		-100
Candler		-100
Chattahoochee	-100
Coffee		-100
Dougherty		-100
Habersham	-100
Liberty		-100
Long		        -100
Muscogee		-100
Pickens		-100
Telfair		-100
Treutlen		-100
Turner		-100
Webster		-100

[Adam Griffin]

And to make it a bit simpler to look at, here are the VBM percentage shifts between 2014 and 2018 only for counties with more than 50,000 people:

Code:

COUNTY	% Higher/Lower Than 2014
Jackson	1472.7
Clayton	518.7
Lowndes	500
Whitfield	468.2
Camden	347.8
Rockdale	287.8
Henry	281.3
Douglas	272
Houston	267.6
Cobb	        264.2
Bartow	231.4
Spalding	228.8
Paulding	218.8
Forsyth	194.4
DeKalb	185.6
Barrow	182.5
Newton	178
Gwinnett	174.6
Cherokee	168.8
Fulton	165.4
Effingham	157.8
Bulloch	156.9
Clarke	136.9
Chatham	136.4
Richmond	128.7
Walker	100
Carroll	97.8
Catoosa	97.2
Floyd	92.4
Walton	89.8
Glynn	81.1
Gordon	70.9
Columbia	50
Coweta	46.4
Troup	26.8
------------------
Bibb	        -10.9
Fayette	-26.2
Hall	        -54.3
Muscogee	-100
Dougherty	-100
Liberty	-100

[GeorgiaModerate]

And to make it a bit simpler to look at, here are the VBM percentage shifts between 2014 and 2018 only for counties with more than 50,000 people:

Code:

COUNTY	% Higher/Lower Than 2014
Jackson	1472.7
Clayton	518.7
Lowndes	500
Whitfield	468.2
Camden	347.8
Rockdale	287.8
Henry	281.3
Douglas	272
Houston	267.6
Cobb	        264.2
Bartow	231.4
Spalding	228.8
Paulding	218.8
Forsyth	194.4
DeKalb	185.6
Barrow	182.5
Newton	178
Gwinnett	174.6
Cherokee	168.8
Fulton	165.4
Effingham	157.8
Bulloch	156.9
Clarke	136.9
Chatham	136.4
Richmond	128.7
Walker	100
Carroll	97.8
Catoosa	97.2
Floyd	92.4
Walton	89.8
Glynn	81.1
Gordon	70.9
Columbia	50
Coweta	46.4
Troup	26.8
------------------
Bibb	        -10.9
Fayette	-26.2
Hall	        -54.3
Muscogee	-100
Dougherty	-100
Liberty	-100

What's up in Jackson County?  Did it have a very low prior to cause that ridiculous spike?

[Adam Griffin]

And to make it a bit simpler to look at, here are the VBM percentage shifts between 2014 and 2018 only for counties with more than 50,000 people:

Code:

COUNTY	% Higher/Lower Than 2014
Jackson	1472.7
Clayton	518.7
Lowndes	500
Whitfield	468.2
Camden	347.8
Rockdale	287.8
Henry	281.3
Douglas	272
Houston	267.6
Cobb	        264.2
Bartow	231.4
Spalding	228.8
Paulding	218.8
Forsyth	194.4
DeKalb	185.6
Barrow	182.5
Newton	178
Gwinnett	174.6
Cherokee	168.8
Fulton	165.4
Effingham	157.8
Bulloch	156.9
Clarke	136.9
Chatham	136.4
Richmond	128.7
Walker	100
Carroll	97.8
Catoosa	97.2
Floyd	92.4
Walton	89.8
Glynn	81.1
Gordon	70.9
Columbia	50
Coweta	46.4
Troup	26.8
------------------
Bibb	        -10.9
Fayette	-26.2
Hall	        -54.3
Muscogee	-100
Dougherty	-100
Liberty	-100

What's up in Jackson County?  Did it have a very low prior to cause that ridiculous spike?

Apparently only around 15 people had voted by mail at this point in Jackson in 2014 (compared to 174 as of today).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1049476363714027520

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Vote, racial shares of the electorate shifted in favor of non-white gains over the weekend. An additional 2,733 valid votes were received compared to yesterday (which seems pretty low for a 3-day period, but I'm not sure if a lot of the county boards are closed today for "state holiday"; today's accepted ballot total (returned minus rejected) stands at 31,730 votes.

Code:

White	14108	44.5% (-0.6)
Black	13305	41.9% (+0.4)
Latino	700           2.2%  (0.0)
Asian	924	         2.9%  (+0.1)
Other	2693	         8.5%  (+0.1)

Female	18497	58.4% (-0.1)
Male		12740 	40.2% (+0.1)
Unknown	493	        1.6%   (+0.1)

18-29	 1886	5.9%   (0.0)
30-39	 1601	5.0%   (0.0)
40-49	 2347	7.4%   (+0.2)
50-64	 7020	22.1%  (+0.1)
65+         18430        58.1%  (-0.4)
Unknown	  446	        1.4%   (0.0)

[_]

Whitfield's gone up massively, damn.

[Adam Griffin]

So with the update GeorgiaVotes just pushed right after I calculated these figures, the county percentages have changed considerably. It appears that a lot (if not all) of the counties' percentages relative to 2014 have went down quite a bit. That's because today was a state holiday and their boards of election were closed, whereas in 2014, Columbus Day didn't fall on October 8 (I believe GeorgiaVotes is using a day-to-day method, rather than a "nth day of early voting" method).

So don't be surprised if you click on a county on their page and the percentages are different. I imagine the percentages will go back up considerably tomorrow when all of these ballots from the long weekend are counted. Likewise, the percentages will undoutedly spike on October 13 (which was when Columbus Day was in 2014; you can even see the flatlining of votes for 10/13 on the GeorgiaVotes website from 2014 because of the effect it had).

[Adam Griffin]

Whitfield's gone up massively, damn.

Glorious news! One thing we've been making sure to do during canvassing for the past 5-6 weeks is to pass out absentee ballot applications (even though they weren't officially part of "the script"), so hopefully that's helping at least a bit along with all of the other statewide VBM pushes.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

https://youtu.be/ZaWT224ZvN0

"Brian Kemp pointed a gun at a teenager in his own ad. Who does that?!"

Gold.

[Tekken_Guy]

My pick for Senate targets: 9, 32, 40, 48, 56

[Adam Griffin]

Something's been bothering me for the last few days as I keep looking at these VBM totals. Now, it could be totally innocuous or just a simple coincidence, but when you look at the map of VBM shifts relative to 2014, you see there's a lot of heavily-white rural South GA counties where no ballots (or just a literal handful) have been sent out yet. While most of these counties are much whiter than most the rest of Georgia, they do still have relatively sizable minority populations in many.

At first my reaction was "Glorious News!", because presumably you lower even GOP vote totals when you restrict ballot access in heavily-GOP areas. However, I'm starting to wonder if there's a bit of a concerted effort in these counties to delay VBM as much as possible, especially after seeing the huge surges of minority participation. Hell, they may have hundreds of applications sitting on their desks that they've looked through, and realize there's a veritable electoral coup in progress.

In addition to rural South GA, you're also seeing this in Bibb/Macon, Muscogee/Columbus and Dougherty/Albany. One would think these election boards would be controlled by real Democrats, but given their longstanding Democratic dominance and the fact that the good ol' boy system held very extensive power in these cities even just a decade or two ago...I don't know.

(For what it's worth, I think that if this is at least somewhat the cause, the reason you're not seeing these kinds of delays in heavily-GOP North GA is because historically, there haven't been large minority populations and therefore the blatant acts of voter suppression and racial polarization that exist elsewhere in the state have never been prominent or prevalent here)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1049637647738699776

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1049637647738699776

Very impressive considering that the absentee ballots returned so far are skewing old. This is good news for Abrams who in most polling leads in all age groups other than 65+. I think the participation from AA 2014 non-voters will grow as younger voters (18-64) start doing in-person early voting next week.