Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

The ORF Report just had a new poll by Meinungsraum.at, which had Kurz and his list clearly ahead. SPÖ and FPÖ were about tied for 2nd.

Will post the numbers tomorrow when they are out.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz is already out fishing for potential VIP backers of his "independent" list.

Recently, he called several NEOS-MPs and tried to win them over. One said he was in talks with Kurz, but refused. It's no secret that many NEOS members have sympathies for Kurz (and many voters might abandon them on election day).

Others targeted by Kurz are former Austrian Constitutional Court President and former Presidential candidate Irmgard Griss (19%), who is also mentioned as a NEOS candidate. Whoever wins her over, would get a significant boost.

Kurz has recently met with Efgani Dönmez, a very common-sense former Green MP, who was kicked out by the Greens because of violating their "political correctness". Dönmez, of Turkish origin, is a strong Erdogan-critic and called his supporters in Austria to "buy a one-way ticket home to Turkey". Kurz appointed Dönmez as integration ambassador for schools. It's very likely he will join the Kurz-group.

Other targets include former, popular President of the Austrian Court of Audit, Josef Moser (FPÖ).

Or the former Miss Earth and entrepreneur Katja Wagner, recently stirring up controversy because of her beauty saloon and her fight against overblown business regulations.

Or Christoph Swarovski, head of the Tyrolian business association.

http://derstandard.at/2000057637880/Die-schwarze-Liste-soll-bunt-werden

As you can see, Kurz is trying to establish a big net of prominent backers from all parties.

[Tender Branson]

It's October 15 !

All 6 parties agreed today that the federal election will take place in Mid-October. Parliamentary work will continue the next months and the Eurofighter investigation committee will run until July 12 (this was threatened to be cancelled before it even started by the recent coalition trouble).

Wolfgang Brandstetter (ÖVP, current Justice Minister) will become the new Vice-Chancellor for the next 5 months (will be sworn in tomorrow). Kern actually wanted Kurz as the VC, but he declined - so Kern had to accept Brandstetter. Harald Mahrer, currently state secretary, will become the new Minister for Economy.

http://derstandard.at/2000057713884/Alle-Parteien-einigten-sich-auf-15-Oktober-als-Wahltermin

[Diouf]

Kurz is already out fishing for potential VIP backers of his "independent" list.

Recently, he called several NEOS-MPs and tried to win them over. One said he was in talks with Kurz, but refused. It's no secret that many NEOS members have sympathies for Kurz (and many voters might abandon them on election day).

Others targeted by Kurz are former Austrian Constitutional Court President and former Presidential candidate Irmgard Griss (19%), who is also mentioned as a NEOS candidate. Whoever wins her over, would get a significant boost.

Kurz has recently met with Efgani Dönmez, a very common-sense former Green MP, who was kicked out by the Greens because of violating their "political correctness". Dönmez, of Turkish origin, is a strong Erdogan-critic and called his supporters in Austria to "buy a one-way ticket home to Turkey". Kurz appointed Dönmez as integration ambassador for schools. It's very likely he will join the Kurz-group.

Other targets include former, popular President of the Austrian Court of Audit, Josef Moser (FPÖ).

Or the former Miss Earth and entrepreneur Katja Wagner, recently stirring up controversy because of her beauty saloon and her fight against overblown business regulations.

Or Christoph Swarovski, head of the Tyrolian business association.

http://derstandard.at/2000057637880/Die-schwarze-Liste-soll-bunt-werden

As you can see, Kurz is trying to establish a big net of prominent backers from all parties.

How come NEOS members have so much sympathy for Kurz? Aren't NEOS a standard socialliberal party with very lax attitudes to immigration while Kurz is seen as quite tough on migration? But maybe being young and beautiful is enough for them.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz is already out fishing for potential VIP backers of his "independent" list.

Recently, he called several NEOS-MPs and tried to win them over. One said he was in talks with Kurz, but refused. It's no secret that many NEOS members have sympathies for Kurz (and many voters might abandon them on election day).

Others targeted by Kurz are former Austrian Constitutional Court President and former Presidential candidate Irmgard Griss (19%), who is also mentioned as a NEOS candidate. Whoever wins her over, would get a significant boost.

Kurz has recently met with Efgani Dönmez, a very common-sense former Green MP, who was kicked out by the Greens because of violating their "political correctness". Dönmez, of Turkish origin, is a strong Erdogan-critic and called his supporters in Austria to "buy a one-way ticket home to Turkey". Kurz appointed Dönmez as integration ambassador for schools. It's very likely he will join the Kurz-group.

Other targets include former, popular President of the Austrian Court of Audit, Josef Moser (FPÖ).

Or the former Miss Earth and entrepreneur Katja Wagner, recently stirring up controversy because of her beauty saloon and her fight against overblown business regulations.

Or Christoph Swarovski, head of the Tyrolian business association.

http://derstandard.at/2000057637880/Die-schwarze-Liste-soll-bunt-werden

As you can see, Kurz is trying to establish a big net of prominent backers from all parties.

How come NEOS members have so much sympathy for Kurz? Aren't NEOS a standard socialliberal party with very lax attitudes to immigration while Kurz is seen as quite tough on migration? But maybe being young and beautiful is enough for them.

You have to remember that NEOS is relatively new. Many, if not most of their members and voters have been raised in ÖVP households, in ÖVP-towns and in an ÖVP-friendly (business) environment. There are also some Green-leaning types, but their "natural home" was always the ÖVP. That's no secret. You are correct that NEOS as a party is pro-EU and lax on immigration - but the main focus of their members is not immigration but the economy and business and getting rid of regulations - which is also what Kurz wants.

[ApatheticAustrian]

How come NEOS members have so much sympathy for Kurz? Aren't NEOS a standard socialliberal party with very lax attitudes to immigration while Kurz is seen as quite tough on migration? But maybe being young and beautiful is enough for them.

kurz is creating a hype around his own personality and i guess economical issues trump everything else.....besides that many obvious NEOs voters came from the övp in the first place.

[Tender Branson]

Today, university/student parliament elections started. Voting is open until Thursday.

About 350.000 university students are eligible to vote.

It will be some sort of first test for Kurz and the AG, especially after their anti-semitic, anti-disabled people scandal last week. The ÖVP-aligned AG was the strongest list in 2015.

[Tender Branson]

The ORF Report just had a new poll by Meinungsraum.at, which had Kurz and his list clearly ahead. SPÖ and FPÖ were about tied for 2nd.

Will post the numbers tomorrow when they are out.

It's out. Conducted online, n=800, between Friday and Sunday. Here are the main points:

New elections: Good idea, or bad idea ?



Opinion about major politicians: excellent+good opinion



Opinion about parties: excellent+good opinion



Direct vote for Chancellor:



Election vote, including undecideds etc.



Will the campaign be fair or dirty ? By party preference:



Most important topics for voters:

[Tender Branson]

It seems the main findings of the poll (26% ÖVP, 22% SPÖ, 21% FPÖ, 5% Greens, 5% NEOS, 2% others, the rest undecided etc.) would lead to the following result without the undecideds:

32% ÖVP
27% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
  6% Greens
  6% NEOS
  3% Others

Kinda weird that the Greens are this low, but I could see something just like this on election day - for example if many former Green-voters (like me) tactically switch to Kern and the SPÖ because of the close race.

[windjammer]

It seems the main findings of the poll (26% ÖVP, 22% SPÖ, 21% FPÖ, 5% Greens, 5% NEOS, 2% others, the rest undecided etc.) would lead to the following result without the undecideds:

32% ÖVP
27% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
  6% Greens
  6% NEOS
  3% Others

Kinda weird that the Greens are this low, but I could see something just like this on election day - for example if many former Green-voters (like me) tactically switch to Kern and the SPÖ because of the close race.

Likeliest coalition according to you?

[Tender Branson]

Likeliest coalition according to you?

SPÖ/FPÖ or FPÖ/SPÖ.

ÖVP/FPÖ or FPÖVP.

It really depends what the FPÖ wants. And Van der Bellen.

[Tender Branson]

Green-leader Eva Glawischnig about to step down - probably as early as next week or before the summer - according to the German newspaper "Die Welt" and a high-ranking Green official.

http://mobil.derstandard.at/2000057821946/Spekulationen-ueber-Rueckzug-von-Gruenen-Chefin-Glawischnig

[Tender Branson]

Despite the coalition breaking up due to constant intrigues etc., SPÖVP yesterday still managed to pass 4 laws in parliament - among them the new security and integration law which bans full face veiling starting on Oct. 1 with a fine of 150€, a significant increase in scholarships funded by the public for students and an increase in R&D spending. That's on top of SPÖVP voting for new elections on Oct. 15

http://derstandard.at/2000057792294/Nationalrat-SPOe-und-OeVP-einigen-sich-auf-vier-Antraege

If SPÖVP can still work together, why do we need new elections ?

[Tender Branson]

Green-leader Eva Glawischnig about to step down - probably as early as next week or before the summer - according to the German newspaper "Die Welt" and a high-ranking Green official.

http://mobil.derstandard.at/2000057821946/Spekulationen-ueber-Rueckzug-von-Gruenen-Chefin-Glawischnig

Glawischnig will indeed step down very soon, says the STANDARD (according to one of their sources in the Green Party).

Her successor will be Ingrid Felipe-Saint Hilaire, the Green leader from Tyrol (right). Felipe is a popular politician in the Tyrolian ÖVP-Green government and one of Glawischnig's close allies who defended her during the fight with the Young Greens (who she recently kicked out). She once married a Dominican (that's why she's called "Felipe-Saint Hilaire"), but later became a single mom who struggled financially.



http://derstandard.at/2000057828948/Gruenen-Chefin-Eva-Glawischnig-tritt-zurueck

[Tender Branson]

Glawischnig to step down at 10am !

Damn, the last week was really something ...

[Tender Branson]

Green-leader Eva Glawischnig just stepped down with tears in her eyes, during a very emotional press conference.



She thanked all her colleagues and said that her 2 little sons, health reasons and the constant pressure during the last months led to her resignation.

She also warned about an increasing toxic political climate and a brutal election campaign and the wish "for a strong man on top of the government", hate speech on social media and that she still wants to combat sexism and hate against minorities even as a private person now.

Really disgusting how the recent events and the system wore her down. She was a great party leader.

The new leader will be chosen tomorrow at the party committee meeting in Salzburg.

[Tender Branson]

President Van der Bellen says "goodbye" to Eva Glawischnig:

[Tender Branson]

Today, university/student parliament elections started. Voting is open until Thursday.

About 350.000 university students are eligible to vote.

It will be some sort of first test for Kurz and the AG, especially after their anti-semitic, anti-disabled people scandal last week. The ÖVP-aligned AG was the strongest list in 2015.

Turnout yesterday was at 18%.

It will probably be in the 25-30% range, like in all previous elections.

University students are such lazy fu**ers !

[DavidB.]

President Van der Bellen says "goodbye" to Eva Glawischnig

Very independent.

University students are such lazy fu**ers !

Turnout in university elections is often similar here and I don't bother to go and vote either. That's not laziness, it's because university elections are utterly pointless and the people standing in them are pretentious job hunters.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Very independent.

austria is still a very royal country regarding tributes and badges and stuff.... if you are doing something official over a longer period of time, you can't dodge the pins and awards which are thrown your way.

[Tender Branson]

University students are such lazy fu**ers !

Turnout in university elections is often similar here and I don't bother to go and vote either. That's not laziness, it's because university elections are utterly pointless and the people standing in them are pretentious job hunters.

True, but 25-30% is still a joke considering the turnouts are usually around 75-80% in parliamentary elections.

Anyway, the polls at all universities are closing during this hour. Results are out individually by university (95 of them in Austria) during the next hours, with the final Austria-wide result by midnight or tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

Results of all universities and the Austria-wide result can be found here:

http://fm4.orf.at/stories/2842797

Already counted universities are marked with a (*)

and here:

https://wahlergebnisse2017.oeh.ac.at

on the top right.

[Tender Branson]

Final result of the university/student representative elections:



AG = ÖVP
VSStÖ = SPÖ
GRAS = Greens
FLÖ = Independents (left-wing)
JUNOS = NEOS
RFS = FPÖ
KSV-LILI = Communists 1.0
KSV-KJÖ = Communists 2.0
No Ma'am = Independent (satire, party)

The current left-wing student government (VSStÖ+GRAS+FLÖ) would keep their majority with 29 seats vs. 26 seats for all other groups.

Interesting also that the AG didn't lose more considering their anti-semitism and anti-disabled scandal last week (though it involved only one university).

The VSStÖ gained a lot, while the Greens lost quite a bit. In fact, the Greens now only have half the votes they had in the mid-2000s.

JUNOS got their best result ever, while the RFS remains low. Even the Communists do better than the FPÖ with students.

[Tender Branson]

New poll by Research Affairs for Ö24.at (conducted May 16-18, n=600):

64% of voters say the ÖVP is to blame for the new elections, 36% say the SPÖ (still, it seems voters punish the SPÖ for it, because they are only at 20%).

The Chancellor-vote is very even (Kurz 36%, Kern 35%, 29% Strache).

Voters also say they prefer a ÖVP-FPÖ government over all others with 37%.

Voters also expect the FPÖ to eventually win the election (41%).

Voters also say by 56-44 that the FPÖ should be in the next government.

[Tender Branson]

Another poll, Unique Research for Heute.at, confirms the Kurz-surge (conducted May 15-18, n=800):



Full results here (PDF).

Also, several character pros & cons for each candidate were tested:

* beautiful
* competent
* ambitious
* assertive
* likeable

Kurz:



Kern:



Strache:



Also, by a 64-31 margin voters do not think Kurz (30) is too young for Chancellor.

And by a 62-33 margin voters also agree with the new elections.

Full results here (PDF).