Japan 2012

[jaichind]

Ah.  I see the difference between
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/ and jiji

All NHK does is to project the PR seats based on very limited returns so far.  I suspect those numbers will jump around a lot as vote countes come in.   

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

DPJ              33

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God help us.

LDP/NKP at 257 now.

[jaichind]

JRP seems to sweeping Osaka.

[jaichind]

They have

LDP            234
NKP             24
DPJ              36
Future Party   5
JRP              35
Your Party    11
SDP               1
NP-Daichi       1
Communist     4
Independent   2

DPJ inches ahead of JRP

[jaichind]

LDP-NKP sweeping all regions with respect to Osaka where JRP seems to be winning most of the seats.  LDP-NKP seems to be sweeping Hokkaido as well which really speaks to how badly DPJ is doing.  Even in 2005 landslide DPJ did well in Hokkaido.

[jaichind]

Looking at places left to report I really do not see how DPJ gets over 60 seats.  This means 2/3 majority for sure for LDP-NKP.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

LDP has gone over a majority on its own.

[jaichind]

Looking at the PR vote coming in so far for areas that have significant votes tells how the LDP-NKP cruised their way to victory.  It is mostly the same way I have indicated before will take place.  Take the PR region of 東北 or Northeast.  The PR vote with 19% of the results in are

LDP           29.1%
DPJ            20.0%
JRP            14.0%
NKP             9.3%
Future         9.0%
Your Party   6.7%
Communist  6.5%
SDP              3.4%

Note that LDP+NKP has 38.4% and if replicated across the in the same region in the FPTP votes will pretty much win them most of the seats since DPJ and JRP strength are evenly split between the two.

[jaichind]

LDP+NKP has 275 out of 377 projected so far.  That is 72% of the seats. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

urgh

[minionofmidas]

So a majority much inflated by the voting system, then?

[jaichind]

Exactly.  If this election is run under the 1947-1993 election system I am not even sure LDP will get a majority let alone this 2/3 majority.

So a majority much inflated by the voting system, then?

[jaichind]

Just as an example, based on current trends I suspect LDP+NKP will get around 40%-45% of the PR vote.  In 1979 election under the old system, LDP got 44.6% of the vote but failed to get a majority by only taking 248 out of 511 seats.

[jaichind]

LDP            259
NKP             26
DPJ              39
PNP                1 (DPJ ally)
Future Party   5
JRP              38
Your Party    11
SDP               1
NP-Daichi       1
Communist     4
Independent   4

Neck to neck between DPJ and JRP on who will take second place.

[RogueBeaver]

Are the seats left to call (90 if my math's right) PR or FPTP?

[jaichind]

Are the seats left to call (90 if my math's right) PR or FPTP?

About 30 PR and 60 FPTP.  Note that PR votes are coming in very slow so it is hard to call the rest of them until a lot of more votes come in.

[jaichind]

LDP is up to 212 wins and NKP 8 wins in FPTP with a lot more not projected yet.  In the 2005 Koizumi landslide LDP won 219 and NKP 8.  LDP is on course to surpass the Koizumi landslude of 2005.  Note that LDP+NKP got 51.5% of the PR vote in 2005.  Very little chance of LDP+NKP getting that.  They will end up in the low 40s.  So bigger win for LDP+NKP than 2005 with a lot less votes.  And it is a low turnout election on top of that.  I am certain those that did not turn out are demoralized floating DPJ voters.

[jaichind]

Noda resigns as head of DPJ. 

[jaichind]

The breakup of New Party Daichi and DPJ doomed DPJ in Hokkaido.  If they kept that alliance they could have stopped LDP+NKP there.  Instead it is a complete LDP+NKP sweep there.

[jaichind]

In Osaka it is JRP 11 vs LDP+NKP 7 with 1 still not in.  11 out of 13 FPTP seats JRP won so far is in Osaka, as expected.

[jaichind]

In 2005 LDP landslide LDP+NKP got 51.5% of PR vote and 2009 DPJ landslide LDP+NKP got 38.2% of the PR vote.  This time LDP+NKP will get around 42%-43% of the vote (my educated guess.)  Funny how from a vote share point of view this election is closer to the 2009 election but the results exceeds even 2005.  Split of the LDP vote is the story here.

[jaichind]

Voter turnout in Sunday's House of Representatives election in Japan is estimated at 59.52 percent, below the record low of 59.65 percent in the 1996 election, according to a Kyodo News tally.

[jaichind]

Osaka ends up JRP 12 LDP-NKP 7
Aichi is a dramatic turnaround.  In 2009 it was DPJ 15 LDP-NKP 0.  It is now LDP-NKP 12 DPJ 2 and 1 outstanding. 
Most of oustanding seats are in Tokyo where 6 are still out.  It is LDP-NKP 18 DPJ 1 and 6 outstanding.  Back in 2009 it was DPJ 21 LDP-NKP 4.
 

[RogueBeaver]

Does the NHK ticker count LDP/NKP together or separately? Cause right now they don't have 2/3 if grouped together. I assume light grey is miscellaneous.

[jaichind]

Grey is not counted.  By the time it is all counted LDP-NKP should have more than 320 seats. 

Does the NHK ticker count LDP/NKP together or separately? Cause right now they don't have 2/3 if grouped together. I assume light grey is miscellaneous.