Washington state megathread

[Meeker]

Sometimes things like that happen when elections are non-partisan. Louws was also helped by his name recognition; if it'd been any other person with a similar bio but different last name they probably would've finished behind Stalheim.

I think Louws is clearly the more palatable option between him and Ericksen. Though I've heard the Democrats may try to organize a write-in campaign for Stalheim as a protest.

[Meeker]

A map of that election would be amusing. I'd guess Louws wins Lynden, Stalheim wins Bellingham and Ericksen wins everywhere else?

[bgwah]

A map of that election would be amusing. I'd guess Louws wins Lynden, Stalheim wins Bellingham and Ericksen wins everywhere else?

That's basically what happened, though Ericksen won some of North Bellingham.

Would a write-in campaign for Stalheim actually work? Aren't there usually sore loser laws that would prevent him from being a valid candidate in the general?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I forgot to check Whatcom County's primary elections. Did the Democrats fail to make the general for county exeuctive? Epic fail for a lean D county. Like, pathetic, really.

  Indeed.

[RI]

Map time! Red is Stalheim, Blue is Ericksen, Green is Louws.

[bgwah]

^ Cool map! It's quite an informative split, telling you a lot about Whatcom County.

I wonder what Happy Valley will do in the general!




And RI, where did you learn to do precinct maps? I'd like to learn how to.

[bgwah]

What do you think will happen in the Mayoral race, Fuzzy? I see Pike and Linville basically tied, with Pike winning by a fraction of a percent. I can't really imagine conservative voters shifting to Pike, so I'm inclined to think Linville will win the general.

I've had two people from Vermont liken Bellingham to Burlington. Perhaps this is what their Progressive vs. Democrat elections are like?

[Meeker]

Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

[Fuzzybigfoot]

What do you think will happen in the Mayoral race, Fuzzy? I see Pike and Linville basically tied, with Pike winning by a fraction of a percent. I can't really imagine conservative voters shifting to Pike, so I'm inclined to think Linville will win the general.

I see something like that too.  Kelli has support from a lot of the small businesses here, so I think that will probably put here a bit over the top here.  I'm backing Pike though, since he signed that deal for Chuckanut mountain and since he strongly opposes the coal initiative, or so I've heard.  But Kelli seems alright too, so it wouldn't be the end of the world (or the waterfront) if she won.  

I've had two people from Vermont liken Bellingham to Burlington. Perhaps this is what their Progressive vs. Democrat elections are like?

Probably.  

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

[greenforest32]

Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

Awesome but why hasn't Murray done so too? I always thought she was to the left of Cantwell too.

[Meeker]

Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

Awesome but why hasn't Murray done so too? I always thought she was to the left of Cantwell too.

She's come out against DOMA... it may be as simple as she hasn't been asked the question lately.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

Awesome but why hasn't Murray done so too? I always thought she was to the left of Cantwell too.

I actually asked her if she supported gay marriage when I met her in D.C., but she just said it was a "state's right" and moved on.    lol

[greenforest32]

Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

Awesome but why hasn't Murray done so too? I always thought she was to the left of Cantwell too.

I actually asked her if she supported gay marriage when I met her in D.C., but she just said it was a "state's right" and moved on.    lol

indeed.

She's the last west coast senator yet to support it publicly.

[Seattle]

Even including Alaska?

[greenforest32]

Even including Alaska?

No, Washington is way ahead of Alaska. I guess I should have been more specific.

[Ogre Mage]

Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

Awesome but why hasn't Murray done so too? I always thought she was to the left of Cantwell too.

On social policy I think Cantwell is as liberal as Murray, perhaps slightly moreso on this issue.  

[Meeker]

For those who don't follow Pierce County politics very closely, our Assessor-Treasurer is a nutcase who harasses his employees and as such a recall effort has been organized against him. The petition requirement is enormous (25% of the voters when he was elected in 2008) but it looks like it has a chance to make the November ballot - though it's too close to say for sure.

Currently 50,646 of the required 65,495 have been approved while another 15,250 have been challenged for being duplicates, illegible, non-voters, etc. Another 18,607 or more await verification.

http://recalldalewasham.org/

[Meeker]

Things are looking a little worse. 53,798 have been accepted, 16,996 challenged, 13,709 remain.

Needed acceptance rate: 77.5%
Current acceptance rate: 76.0%

Some of those challenges will turn into accepts... no telling how many though.

There's going to be another update later today.

[redcommander]

http://heraldnet.com/article/20110828/NEWS01/708289889/0/NEWS

Apparently Reagan Dunn thinks that letting Cantwell have a freeride for reelection will somehow benefit him? Anyways it looks like Reichert might be more serious about running for senate than the talk was about him running against Murray. Baumgartner is also being talked about as an acceptable alternative.

[Meeker]

Whatever happened to the Bush deputy press secretary?

[redcommander]

Whatever happened to the Bush deputy press secretary?

Stanzel probably realized he would lose badly in the state. It looks like Baumgartner is forming an exploratory committee. He doesn't really have anything to lose since he was elected to State Senate last year, and a good campaign against Cantwell could set him up nicely for another statewide bid in the future. That is of course assuming that next year will not be a 1980 style blowout, and Cantwell becomes seriously at risk of losing.

http://www.nwdailymarker.com/2011/09/baumgartner-said-to-be-organizing-exploratory-committee-to-run-against-cantwell-in-2012/

Why are some Republicans worried about a competitive senate race? The DNC is going to be spending a lot of money in Washington already because of the Governor's race. If they're using the argument that Murray's race helped Dems down the ballot, it's because they found Dino Rossi to run. They seriously expected a landslide across the state with him leading the ticket?

[Meeker]

Baumgartner isn't going to fair any better than Stanzel would. Both of their name recognition numbers are in the single digits. Baumgartner is also going to have to pretty much live several hours away from his home for the next 15 months if he's serious about this.

[Meeker]

I don't think the Recall Washam folks are going to make it. Looks like they'll end up a thousand or so signatures short.

[bgwah]

Isn't his term almost 3/4ths over anyway?