France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #5 - 6 June 2011

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement.

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...


6 June Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,92
NPA      0,96
Mélenchon   5,03
Chevènement   0,42
Aubry      24,75
Hulot      8,68
Bayrou      5,79
Borloo      7,96
Villepin      4,00
Sarkozy      21,84
Dupont-Aignan   0,77
Le Pen      18,87
   


6 June Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud      1,02
NPA      0,97
Mélenchon   5,06
Chevènement   0,52
Hollande      26,15
Hulot      8,63
Bayrou      5,41
Borloo      7,41
Villepin      3,78
Sarkozy      21,10
Dupont-Aignan   0,75
Le Pen      19,22



6 June generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,98
NPA      0,97
Mélenchon   5,05
Chevènement   0,48
PS      25,59
Hulot      8,65
Bayrou      5,56
Borloo      7,63
Villepin      3,87
Sarkozy      21,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,76
Le Pen      19,08


With no new poll this week (), the small changes are only the effect of time.
What we said last week is still true.

From an outside viewpoint, what strikes most is the very low level of Sarkozy, considering votes for Villepin and Borloo aren't guaranteed at all to come back to him in the 2nd round.
The socialist candidate is clearly ahead, but the left as a whole isn't very high at all.
The "outsiders" are high, either Le Pen or the "centrist" candidates.

[big bad fab]

Some observers also said the DSK affair would only 'solidify' her support rather than boost it.

Yes, I was among them from the beginning.
She has already gained what she can gain.
Besancenot's withdrawal gave her 1 or 1.5 point before DSK earthquake, but she has lost them since then.

Basically, she is not really falling, just remaining very high and threatening Sarkozy, though it is more up to him not lose, rather than up to her to climb even higher.

But it seems as if we are now in a more classical lef-right fight, with the socialists having benefited from Besancenot's withdrawal (Mélenchon has barely won 0.5 point) and with Hollande and Aubry being valued higher since DSK is out.

They may be default choices, but the fact that centrist and even rightist voters who opted for DSK now opt for Hollande (and even Aubry a bit) rather than going back to Sarkozy or adding to Borloo prove how deep the resentment against Sarkozy is among centrists and centre-rightists.


Thanks a lot Antonio, these graphs are very clear.

But... Villepin would be cool to add .
And even the others, though they may be difficult to read.

[big bad fab]

Harris Interactive poll for Marianne, 3-5 June 2011, sample 1449

Hollande 27 / Aubry 25 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 23 / 24 / 26
Le Pen 21 / 22 / 22
Mélenchon 7 / 7 / 8
Borloo 7 / 7 / 9
Bayrou 6 / 6 / 7
Hulot 6 / 6 / 7
Villepin 2 / 2 / 3
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1
Arthaud 0 / 0 / 0
Martin (NPA) 0 / 0 / 0

Sarkozy is on the rise in this new poll, with Villepin and Le Pen down (remember it's Harris: Le Pen was VERY high in their previous polls).

Both Hollande and Aubry are on the rise, with the same gap between them as usual.
Royal is again eliminated in the first round, by a huge margin.

Mélenchon is the clear winner here, with both the LO and NPA candidates at almost 0.

So, as in my previous comments, I'd say that we have a more classical left-right combat, with Le Pen still high and a small advantage for Hollande on Aubry.

For the second round, still a clear defeat for Sarkozy:
Hollande 60-40 Sarkozy
Aubry 58- 42 Sarkozy
Le Pen 37-63 Sarkozy (very high result for Marion "Marine")
Royal 51-49 Sarkozy (theoretical, of course...)

It's interesting to see that Hollande grasps 25% of FN voters (75% for Sarkozy, as Harris doesn't give us those who abstain...) or% of Le Pen voters, 39% of Radicals or 46% of Borloo voters, 84% of MoDem voters or 83% of Bayrou voters, 93% of Green voters or 76% of Hulot voters (where we see that Hulot's appeal is wider).

Aubry is a bit less efficient among centrists and rightists: 32% of Radicals and , 17% of FN voters and 29% of Le Pen voters,
but she is on par among MoDem (82%) and Bayrou (83%) voters,
interestingly, she is high among Greens (94%) but less among Hulot voters (71%).

So, she is quite a good first term candidate (as Hollande's 2 or 3 points margin would probably lessen during a campaign, except if Sarkozy is forced to tilt to the far-right).
But she is clearly a less good candidate for the 2nd round.

The only hope of Sarkozy is here:
taking a psychological advantage, being good at GOTV.
Indeed,
only 13% wish strongly his reelection
15% wish a bit,
17% rather don't wish,
53% don't wish at all !

BUT:
6% think his reelection is certain,
51% think it's likely (probable),
28% unlikely (peu probable),
13% impossible.

Of course, many people could be illiterate enough not to know the difference between probable and possible...
And you don't have a central category with just possible or so-so.
Still, he has an opportunity, provided events are on his side, socialists fight too much between themselves in the autumn, etc...

[big bad fab]

Do they ever bother testing the results of a hypothetical run-off between Hollande or Aubry and Marine LePen if Sarkozy comes in third? Judging from the polls there is more of a chance of that happening than of Sarkozy/LePen run-off. I would also be very curious to see where Sarkozy's voters would go in that scenario.

Do you ever bother to read past posts in this topic ?
There are some of such polls.

[big bad fab]

BUT:
6% think his reelection is certain,
51% think it's likely (probable),
28% unlikely (peu probable),
13% impossible.

Of course, many people could be illiterate enough not to know the difference between probable and possible...
And you don't have a central category with just possible or so-so.
Still, he has an opportunity, provided events are on his side, socialists fight too much between themselves in the autumn, etc...

I'm not among those who think Sarkozy is done, but 57% thinking it's more likely than not is outright ridiculous.

Edit : now that I think about it, it might be a very good thing for the left. Those two poll put together show us that french people want him to lose, but fears it will win. That will probably make them even more prone to prevent his victory, for example avoiding vote split in the first round...

As far as I'm concerned, I think you're right. Too much people want to see his back.

But medias may tell another story.
That might be the only way out for Sarkozy.

[big bad fab]

My reputation on this forum is indeed to be nasty and condescendant...
Sorry that it has fallen on you as, usually, I'm not posting like that, just thinking it .

When somebody writes "do they ever bother testing...", it may mean something.
And if you are "curious", yes, you can search in this very thread.

Unfortunately, this thread has been polluted, for one half of its current length, by many posts on DSK. But if you read only the polls I post periodically (with a title easy to see, to notice), you'll be informed.

And if you knew, Phil, how much unFrench I am !!! LOL !
Ask Antonio or Hashemite.

[big bad fab]

Holiday today. So the Big Bad Tracker will be updated tomorrow .

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for le Journal du Dimanche, 9-10 juin 2011, 923 RVs among a total sample of 1006

Hollande 26 / Aubry 23
Sarkozy 22 / 21.5
Le Pen 21 / 22
Borloo 6 / 6.5
Bayrou 7 / 8
Hulot 6 / 6
Mélenchon 6 / 6.5
Chevènement 1.5 / 1
NPA candidate 0.5 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Villepin 3 / 3.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

The threat is still here for Sarkozy, but also for Aubry.
Aubry has a real problem with centrist voters.

Here also, Mélenchon is slightly on the rise, all the more that Chevènement is tested and... high in a way.
The big centre mess, with Borloo, Bayrou and Hulot is still high and, this time, Bayrou is ahead.
It's really difficult to follow...

Sarkozy was in a better shape in Harris.
Here, he is again in trouble.

The global scene is very fluid.

Tomorrow, I'll be able to include this poll in my tracker .
And maybe I'll begin a second round tracker .

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #6 - 13 June 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement (some pollsters give Myriam Martin, but it doesn't change anything, compared to an anonymous "NPA candidate").               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.               

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

13 June Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,67
NPA      0,73
Mélenchon   5,68   
Chevènement   0,41   
Aubry      24,62
Hulot      7,68
Bayrou      6,15
Borloo      7,48
Villepin      3,5
Sarkozy      22,28
Dupont-Aignan   0,77   
Le Pen      20,02

      

      

13 June Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,75   
NPA   0,67   
Mélenchon   5,59   
Chevènement   0,55   
Hollande   26,42   
Hulot   7,71   
Bayrou   5,73   
Borloo   7,08   
Villepin   3,3   
Sarkozy   21,63   
Dupont-Aignan   0,75   
Le Pen   19,82   
      

      

13 June generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,72
NPA      0,69
Mélenchon   5,63   
Chevènement   0,5   
PS      25,70
Hulot      7,7
Bayrou      5,9
Borloo      7,24
Villepin      3,38
Sarkozy      21,89
Dupont-Aignan   0,76   
Le Pen      19,9

      

Big changes this week.      

Le Pen is again on the rise, at 20 everywhere.      
Sarkozy is also on the rise, but adding only a half point doesn't make him safe from Le Pen's threat.      

Aubry is peaking while Hollande is making a very slight progress. Overall, we can say the socialists are stable.   
Mélenchon is again on the rise, but this seems to be only transfers from the unknown candidates from the far left.   

Hulot is at its lowest, like Borloo, in this tracker, whereas the media buzz for both of them is still high.   
We'll have to wait for the Green primary result: if Hulot isn't able to climb above 10 points, it will be hard for him to keep safe through the whole campaign.   
If Borloo hasn't been able to create more interest now, it's doubtable he'll be able to do better in the autumn.   
Bayrou is on the rise again, with no obvious reason.   
The central scene is really incoherent, though the big trend is clear: minus 4 points in 6 weeks, from 25 to 21%.   

Villepin is nearing 3%. He has been dropped by old friends like Goulard. He seems too isolated now, though he has an outrageous access to French medias (is Mélenchon 2 times more present than him on TV ?).   

And let's start a second round tracker, as the pollsters seem to make it more often:   

Aubry   57,75
Sarkozy   42,25

Hollande   59,97
Sarkozy   40,03

No big surprise here.   
Though Sarkozy is a bit less down than some weeks ago, though he is a big campaigner, though the socialists aren't able to reach 30% in the first round, though the overall support for the left isn't amazing,   
Sarkozy has really a huge mountain to climb.   
The anti-Sarkozy feeling is so deep that I really don't believ he could make it.   
It'll be fun in one year to see the result .   

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 1-10 June 2011, 502 socialists among 1028 leftists among a total sample of 2009

among self-defined leftists / among self-defined socialists
Hollande 36 / 44
Aubry 35 / 36
Royal 14 / 10
Montebourg 6 / 5
Valls 4 / 3
another one 0 / 0
none of them 4 / 2
don't know 1 / 1

second round:
Hollande 52 (-1) / 56 (=)
Aubry 48 (+1) / 44 (=)

Hollande is still ahead, Aubry is coming back: Reuters has a good title here.

second round: Hollande / Aubry
among Left Front voters: 58 / 42 (amazing ! an effect of past premiership of Hollande or an effect of tiny samples ?)
among Greens: 50 / 50 (amazing ! Aubry is on par with Hollande ! probably an effect of nuclear policy)
among far-left voters: 38 / 62 (pretty logical)
among those who voted Besancenot in 2007: 52 / 48 (well... tiny sample, I guess)
among the leftists who voted Bayrou in 2007: 62 / 38 (logical and the strength of Hollande)
among those who voted Royal in 2007: 53 / 47
among the leftists who voted Sarkozy in 2007: 57 / 43

So, the political landscape is quite clear now.
Even if Moscovici is candidate (in a titanesque fight against Valls and Montebourg ), there will be a second round Hollande-Aubry and a rather balanced one.

So, we may expect a big bloody fight,
with Bartolone, Hamon, Cambadélis, Assouline cheating for Aubry, as they did in 2008 for Aubry or Royal (),
with the small staff of Hollande using its leverage on the medias of every kind.

Nothing is sure but, with July-August-September to fight, plus a polarizing second round, the PS may well be in tatters in October.

As far as I'm concerned, I don't believe in this scenario, though. Of course, it won't be the great love, but I think they will be able not to cross a certain line.
Royal is the mad one and she will first fight Hollande, making him a victim, which may be good for him.
And Royal won't be welcomed by Aubry as she is not an asset, so Royal's power of nuisance will be very much lowered.

[big bad fab]

My English is quite bad, you know .
Yeah, no "-ing" for the verb "to peak" .

As for the 2nd round, it's indeed too early, but it'll be fun to go back to June when we know the name of the socialist !

[big bad fab]

Frédéric Nihous is candidate again, for Chasse Pêche Nature Traditions.

I hope he will be tested by pollsters as he can steal some votes to Le Pen and to Sarkozy.
Dupont-Aignan is already too low and has supporters more upscale socially.

[big bad fab]

Frédéric Nihous is candidate again, for Chasse Pêche Nature Traditions.

That pathetic outfit is still alive ?

Expect some reaction from Hash .

[big bad fab]

Opinionway poll for Le Figaro-TF1-LCI, 15-17 June 2011, sample 1334 leftists among a total sample of 3012

without / with Moscovici
Hollande 43 / 42
Aubry 33 / 31
Royal 13 / 13
Montebourg 7 / 7
Valls 4/ 4
Moscovici - / 3

Moscovici's possible candidacy has no real impact...

Hollande is down and Aubry up with this pollster (-6 and +6), but Opinionway was probably overestimating Hollande.
Maybe they are still overestimating him, as Aubry has now a positive buzz in the medias... She is the "new" thing of the moment (how ironic when you see and know her )

(and how ironic to see that Borloo and Aubry are the big question marks of the moment: the 2 alcohol-addicts together )

It will really be a very balanced and contested primary.
A second round is very, very likely if none of the 2 big guns drops before the election day.

[big bad fab]

Maybe they are still overestimating him, as Aubry has now a positive buzz in the medias... She is the "new" thing of the moment (how ironic when you see and know her )

It's not like Hollande is newer...

Well, he has recently reverted to his humourous natural trend: I'm not sure it's a very good thing, especially if there is a schizophrenic difference between rallies (the "kewl" guy) and TV interviews (the boring president-in-waiting).

As I've always said, if DSK wasn't candidate, Aubry would be so central inside the PS that she would become unbeatable.
You don't hear Hamon and Emmanuelli any longer...
Hollande will be bombed every second from late August:
from the left of the party,
from Delanoë,
from so-called left strauss-kahnians,
from Fabius,
from Royal,
from aubryst women.

Of course, he will have the same leverage as against DSK: the isolated outsider against the "machine".
After all, Royal won massively in 2006 with the same tactics.

I think Hollande must keep on talking as if he is already the candidate and ignore Aubry.
And must let all the Aubry followers, who won't be able to shut up (Fabius, Hamon, Emmanuelli, Bartolone, Assouline, Cambadélis soon): with all these specialists of personal attacks, it'll be easy to be a "victim".

Another interesting question is whether a Hulot victory may be a precedent for a Hollande victory: I mean, someone who isn't exactly in the "historical" line of the party but who may be more efficient electorally against Sarkozy and Le Pen.
It will be fascinating to see all these primaries.

It would have been so fun to have Sarkozy, Borloo, Juppé, Villepin, Boutin competing inside the UMP (Allez Alain !)

[big bad fab]

Are Hollande, Aubry, and Royal the only PS candidates?  Could Bertrand Delanoë run? 

Only Hollande and Aubry have a shot at winning the PS primary. Medias act as if Royal had one too, but they don't even bother for the other guys.

Manuel Valls is a candidate and Arnaud Montebourg too.

Delanoë is now clearly behind Aubry. I guess he'd be glad to become his Prime minister in 2012...

Pierre Moscovici is hesitating, but he can't do more than 5% in the best of case.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #7 - 20 June 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement (some pollsters give Myriam Martin, but it doesn't change anything, compared to an anonymous "NPA candidate").               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.               

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

20 June Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,64
NPA      0,71
Mélenchon   5,78
Chevènement   0,39
Aubry      24,63
Hulot      7,53
Bayrou      6,18
Borloo      7,37
Villepin      3,43
Sarkozy      22,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,76
Le Pen      20,19


      

      

20 June Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,72
NPA      0,64
Mélenchon   5,66
Chevènement   0,53
Hollande      26,54
Hulot      7,54
Bayrou      5,75
Borloo      7,00
Villepin      3,22
Sarkozy      21,74
Dupont-Aignan   0,75
Le Pen      19,91
   
      

      

20 June generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,69
NPA      0,67
Mélenchon   5,71
Chevènement   0,48
PS      25,77
Hulot      7,53
Bayrou      5,92
Borloo      7,15
Villepin      3,30
Sarkozy      22,00
Dupont-Aignan   0,75
Le Pen      20,02

      

No new poll this week.      

The NPA candidate, Hulot, Borloo and Villepin are at their lowest since the beginning of this tracker.
The socialists, Mélenchon and Sarkozy are at their highest.
Le Pen and Bayrou are on the rise again.

It's a sort of a standby now, with the Green primary at work and with Aubry declaring only in 2 or 3 weeks.

The Greek crisis may test the socialists, with Aubry being torned between "responsability" and her leftist support and with Hollande being too "reasonable".

But, knowing France and French people, the reflex will be to seek for more protection and this crisis may well be worse for Sarkozy than for anyone else, as he isn't seen as "protecting" (and nobody cares about international summits and French world influence...).   

As for the second round tracker, no real change:   

Aubry   57,76
Sarkozy   42,24

Hollande   59,98
Sarkozy   40,02

[big bad fab]

ViaVoice poll for Libération, 16-18 June 2011, sample 1005

Whom would you prefer as Green candidate ?

among the whole sample:
Hulot 52 / Joly 26 / don't know 22

among the 133 self-declared Greens:
Hulot 63 / Joly 28 / don't know 9

133 is tiny, but it's big among a total French "population" of 1005...

It will probably result in a narrower margin, but Hulot seems to be the favourite.


If Hash or Antonio or anyone else wants to make a map of the internal vote of the PCF for their presidential candidate, I've got the results by department.

Mélenchon: 59.12
Chassaigne: 36.82
Dang Tran: 4.07

Dang Tran won only in Haute-Saône, not exactly a big PCF federation.

Chassaigne won in Puy-de-Dôme (over 80 obviously), Allier, Cantal, Ardennes, Mayenne (over 70), Lozère, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Pas-de-Calais, Haute-Marne, Marne, Maine-et-Loire, Orne, Charente-Maritime, Var (over 60), Nord, Somme, Seine-Maritime, Eure, Saône-et-Loire, Rhône, Haute-Garonne (over or near 50), Val-de-Marne (51 against 47)

So he gained old strongholds and some federations with over 1000 ballots cast (Seine-Maritime, Val-de-Marne, Nord, Pas-de-Calais, Rhône, Haute-Garonne),
but Mélenchon was high everywhere and he won big in the South-West and the South-East and in Ile-de-France, with the notable exception of Val-de-Marne. He also won in the small federations all over the centre-west, the centre-east, the north-west.

For Mélenchon, big federations with over 1000 ballots: Bouches-du-Rhône (78), Dordogne (81), Hérault (62), Paris (61), Hauts-de-Seine (65) and of course Seine-Saint-Denis (78).

[big bad fab]

Christine Boutin is officially a candidate.

It seems as if she will really try to (I've doubted it for long, but well, she is looking for the 500 signatures now).

Nihous will probably have his signatures (1.15% in 2007).
It's not at all guaranteed for Dupont-Aignan (he didn't succeed in gathering the signatures in 2007) and even for Boutin (she was a candidate in 2002: 1.19%).

Anyway, bad news for Sarkozy... as he is far from safe, due to Le Pen remaining very high despite the fact the medias have had other priorities for some weeks.

As for me, if there is a risk Sarkozy isn't in the 2nd round AND if Aubry is the PS candidate, I'll of course cast a "vote utile" for Sarkozy.
If there is no risk at all AND if Hollande is the PS candidate, of course, I'll support Boutin.
If there is a risk AND if Hollande is the PS candidate, well, that remains to be thought about... In this case, Sarkozy is doomed, so why not voting for your ideas ?
If there is no risk at all AND if Aubry is the PS candidate, well, that remains to be thought about... In this case, Sarkozy needs to have the greatest momentum to beat the old crap

[big bad fab]

Philippe Poutou, former NPA leader in Aquitaine in 2010 regional elections (2.52%) and a member of CGT at Ford factory near Bordeaux, may well be the NPA candidate for 2012.
He is 44 years old but looks more and not very rigorous.

I don't think it will change anything for the NPA: without Besancenot, they will be sidelined.

Of course, there can be jokes about "poutou", a phonetic word for kiss or cuddle, but in a very lax, popular, spoken language .
I doubt it will be enough to be above 1.5% !!!

[big bad fab]

Where is it published ?
I don't see it. Or have you got it from someone inside IPSOS ?

It clearly seems as an outlier (for the moment...).

[big bad fab]

Where is it published ?
I don't see it. Or have you got it from someone inside IPSOS ?

Well, it was first supposed to be published today, but it will be tomorrow. And I clearly think these DSK numbers for Hollande and Aubry will be the standards in the next months polls: people don't really vote for a socialist candidate, but mainly against Sarkozy.

Sure, but above 30%, it's really surprising.

[big bad fab]

CSA poll for 20 Minutes - RMC - BFM TV, 20-21 June, 825 RVs among a total sample of 1004

PS primaries: how likely is it that you vote ?
Certainly: 16% (-1)
Likely: 18% (-2)
Likely not: 18% (-1)
Certainly not: 45% (+4)

Among those who will likely or certainly vote / among socialists likely or certain to vote (don't know how tiny is this latter group...):

Hollande 34 / 41
Aubry 35 / 37
Royal 13 / 9
Montebourg 4 / 4
Moscovici 3 / 5
Valls 3 / 4
none of them 4 / 0
don't know 4 / 0

Aubry is really surging here, though it's in comparison with an old poll from CSA where Royal was unrealistically high.
Maybe she is surging too early, as her candidacy declaration won't be a surprise any longer.
But it's clear she is closing the gap.

It will be very balanced and polarized: wonderful ! Blood inside the PS !

For the second round:
Hollande 51 / 57
Aubry 42 / 39
don't know 7 / 4
Among socialists, Hollande is strong, but it's in the 2nd round that Aubry has still a margin of progress. A narrower margin is likely (though maybe not like in the 2008 Reims Congress ).

And to be complete and LOL a bit:
Hollande 69 / 82
Royal 23 / 16
don't know 8 / 2

Aubry 68 / 77
Royal 22 / 21
don't know 10 / 2

Who is the most able to beat Sarkozy ?
Hollande 52 / 61
Aubry 29 / 29
Royal 11 / 5
don't know 8 / 5
This is where Aubry is the weakest. And it will of course be a very important criterion.

Who is the closest to your ideas and values ?
Aubry 41 / 39
Hollande 34 / 44
Royal 14 / 11
don(t know 11 / 6
Does this mean that, among those who intend to vote, there are more leftists than centre-leftists ?

What's your forecast winner ?
Hollande 44 / 50
Aubry 30 / 36
Royal 9 / 8
Valls 2 / 2
Montebourg 1 / 0
Moscovici 1 / 0
Again, Aubry has to work on this. But with all the big guns behind her, that's not impossible.

[big bad fab]

CSA poll for 20 Minutes - RMC - BFM TV, 20-21 June, 825 RVs among a total sample of 1004

Do you forecast Sarkozy's reelection ?

Certainly not 33 (+1)
Likely not 33 (-7)
Likely 21 (+4)
Certainly 9 (+3)

Certainly or likely: 60 among rightists (+18), 16 among leftists (+6)

Sarkozy has clearly energized his camp.
But his camp is so diminished that it isn't enough. Far from it.

Hollande 27 / Aubry 23 / Royal 15
Sarkozy 23 / 23 / 24
Le Pen 16 / 16 / 16
Borloo 9 / 10 / 10.5
Hulot 7 / 7.5 / 9
Bayrou 5 / 7 / 8
Villepin 3 / 3 / 4
Mélenchon 7 / 7 / 10
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1
NPA 1.5 / 2 / 2
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

Hollande 27 / Aubry 25.5 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 23 / 23 / 24
Le Pen 16 / 16 / 16
Borloo 10 / 11 / 13
Joly 4 / 4 / 5
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 9
Villepin 3 / 4 / 4
Mélenchon 7 / 7 / 8.5
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1
NPA 1.5 / 2 / 2
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

So... Joly is clearly a weaker candidate for the Greens (remember that under 5%, you don't "make" money from the State...).
She loses votes in favour of the PS candidate and of Borloo.

Borloo is higher than in other polls and Bayrou a bit lower. Again, only one conclusion: the centrist scene is very fluid.
Villepin is definitely down.

Mélenchon is on the rise, it's confirmed, as he is no longer stuck to the 5% threshold.

Apart from Royal (CSA still bhothers to test her... ROFL), the PS candidate makes it to the ssecond round, though Hollande more easily than Aubry.
In this poll, Sarkozy seems far safer than in the IPSOS one, with Le Pen clearly down.

Funny to see that IPSOS seems almost as the CSA of 2007...

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #8 - 27 June 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. Pollsters haven't tested Boutin and Nihous yet, but they'll probably be included soon.               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.               

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

27 June Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,73
NPA      0,88
Mélenchon   6,31
Chevènement   0,24
Aubry      25,28
Hulot      7,26
Bayrou      6,17
Borloo      7,84
Villepin      3,37
Sarkozy      22,01
Dupont-Aignan   0,66
Le Pen      19,25
      

      

27 June Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,86
NPA      0,73
Mélenchon   6,21
Chevènement   0,34
Hollande      27,68
Hulot      7,25
Bayrou      5,53
Borloo      7,27
Villepin      3,06
Sarkozy      21,60
Dupont-Aignan   0,66
Le Pen      18,81   
      

      

27 June generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,81
NPA      0,79
Mélenchon   6,25
Chevènement   0,30
PS      26,72
Hulot      7,25
Bayrou      5,78
Borloo      7,50
Villepin      3,18
Sarkozy      21,76
Dupont-Aignan   0,66
Le Pen      18,99
      

The socialists and Mélenchon are at their highest, with quite big gains in this tracker.
Hollande and Aubry are at 1981-Mitterrandesque scores.
Hollande is still above Aubry, but both of them are now at big first round levels considering presidential elections since 1995.

Panzergirl is at her lowest against Hollande.
Sarkozy, which is a bit down again, remains safe as Marion "Marine" Le Pen is lower too.

Dupont-Aignan and Villepin are at their lowest. It will be interesting to see if Boutin and Nihous will fasten this decrease or not (Nihous for NDA, Boutin for both NDA and Villepin).

I guess the fact that Poutou is now NPA's official candidate won't change anything in the far-left . With Chevènement fading away and increasingly uncertain to have his 500 signatures, Mélenchon will be the only enemy of the socialists on their left.

And as Hulot doesn't seem to steal many votes from the socialists (and will have a huge internal pressure not to tilt too much to the centre...), all seems to be well on the left for the socialists.
Their only problem will only be themselves .
But I really doubt it will be enough as a game-changer to make Sarkozy win.


As for the second round tracker, no change:   

Aubry   57,79
Sarkozy   42,21

Hollande   59,98
Sarkozy   40,02