Canada 2011 Official Thread

[2952-0-0]

Harper prepares to wiggle his way out of his past prediction that there will be no CPC minority government: http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCATRE73S5FS20110429

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/29/cv-election-coverage-schedule.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Lots of close races in the Quebec City area. Very nice! I'm adding them to the map. I'm going to take away the Jonquiere-Alma seat I had us winning in, since we aren't (down by 2), because I think the NDP has at this point peaked.

I'm still hoping for some Montreal area riding polls.

[2952-0-0]

Just a hunch, but Harper's scaremongering about the election being a choice between a majority or Bob Rae will not work in driving voters to the Conservative Party. If anything it would drive Liberal-turned-NDP supporters in Ontario back to the Liberals.

The NDP probably has little further to gain and there shouldn't be surprise if they "only" win 27% nationwide. There could be a dead cat Liberal bounce in Ontario, which could make a difference in some suburban seats. The Green Party will disappoint vote-wise, because many of their supporters will be voting strategically, but may win the seat in Saanich Gulf Islands. Finally, the CPC will have a slight fall in popular vote to 35-36% and a fall in seats to 135-140. The Bloc will be finished as a serious party.

Here's my prediction:

C 36%, NDP 29% L 23% G 5% Bloc 5% (23% in Quebec), all rounded to the nearest %

C 140 N 80 L 70 B 15 G MAYBE 1, approximated values.

Things I'd like to see:
Ignatieff initially feels frightened for his own seat.
The NDP tsunami in Quebec claims Gilles Duceppe, Lawrence Cannon, and Christian Paradis.
John Baird loses and has to be physically removed from his office.
Simcoe Grey is too close to call as loyalty to Helena Guergis is strong.
The huge CPC advantage in popular vote turns to be meaningless given the massive margins in its prairie super-strongholds.
Liberals and Bloc descend into public infighting literally the morning after the election.
Failure to win a majority creates rumblings of discontent which turns into a trouble for Harper.
"Red Tories" eventually become disgruntled with Harper's dictatorial leadership and start defecting to the Liberals in sizeable numbers, turning the Liberal Party into a reincarnation of the old PCs and leaving the Conservative Party as a reincarnation of the old Reform/Alliance.

[Meeker]

Rumor on Twitter is that the Toronto Star will endorse the NDP.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Prediction: The NDP will either come very, very close to winning in Bramalea-Gore-Malton or will win it outright. They have a star candidate in Jagmeet Singh, a very young and charismatic lawyer. He's easily the most competent candidate running there.

http://www.youtube.com/user/jagmeetndp

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumor on Twitter is that the Toronto Star will endorse the NDP.

Well, they've done it before (1979).

[homelycooking]

Anyone know about the situation in Guelph? Is the Green candidate running strongly again, or is the big student population there shifting to the NDP? Could vote splits lead to election of a Tory?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ipsos Reid have a new poll... Con 38, NDP 33, Lib 18, BQ 6, Greens 4

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Ipsos Reid have a new poll... Con 38, NDP 33, Lib 18, BQ 6, Greens 4

Compared to their last poll:

Tories 38 (-5)
NDP 33 (+9)
Liberals 18 (-3)
BQ 7 (+1)
Green 4 (+0)

[Insula Dei]

Sort of ironic that my first post in this thread was to inform wether the NDP losing seats was inevitable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regional breakdowns... sorry if I've copied these out wrong...

BC: Con 42, NDP 29, Lib 26, Greenies 3

Alberta: Con 74, NDP 10, Liberals 10, Greenies 5

Saskatchewan/Manitoba: Con 55, NDP 32, Liberals 10, Greenies 3

Ontario: Con 40, NDP 34, Lib 21, Greenies 6

Quebec: NDP 42, BQ 26, Con 15, Lib 13, Greenies 3%

Atlantic: NDP 42, Con 32, Lib 23, Greenies 1%

When written like this it means the sample sizes were tiny.

[Meeker]

Has there ever been a poll with the Liberals in the teens?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Has there ever been a poll with the Liberals in the teens?

Maybe during some of their bleaker moments in the 80s. Other than that, certainly not.

[Linus Van Pelt]

From Ipsos's press release announcing said poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Fail.

[Insula Dei]

From Ipsos's press release announcing said poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Fail.

The Alberta BQ is set to drastically outperform its previous showing!

[cinyc]

From Ipsos's press release announcing said poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Fail.

Not necessarily, if Ipsos is polling likely voters.  Higher relative Quebec LV expected turnout times lower Quebec LV support could equal higher overall national support, especially if 6.4% is rounded down and 6.5% rounded up.

[Foucaulf]

Ontario: NDP 34

Holy hell! The MoE for the Ontario breakdown is 3.6%, the lowest of the bunch. Unreliable as it may be, this is the best poll for the NDP so far.

I wouldn't have believed it days ago, but maybe the NDP will break through Ontario. Now things are getting out of hand. The more the NDP gains in Ontario, the less chances of a Liberal coalition; they'll be amalgamated.

Can't believe people were talking about a union of the Liberals and the NDP only a few months ago. At this rate, the Liberals will be torn apart1

[Linus Van Pelt]

From Ipsos's press release announcing said poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Fail.

Not necessarily, if Ipsos is polling likely voters.  Higher relative Quebec LV expected turnout times lower Quebec LV support could equal higher overall national support, especially if 6.4% is rounded down and 6.5% rounded up.

Fair enough, that's mathematically possible. I don't think they are doing that, though, from the description of the actual poll on their web site, but it's not very transparent how their weighting works.

[Smid]

Al, your suggestion of Labour in the UK in the 1920s is exactly how I've been comparing the NDP rise this week to some political friends over here.

If the NDP end up with more seats than the Liberals, their demise is likely, I'd suggest. If the Liberals back Layton for PM, they give a federal NDP legitimacy as a contender for government and they will surely lose support to them. If they decide to not do that but to prop up a Harper minority, the exodus of Liberal supporters to the NDP will be swift and virtually absolute. Either way, it seems to me that if the NDP win more seats than the Liberals (irrespective of which party receives the higher vote), the NDP will surely become the dominant non-Tory party. that's why I believe the 1920s example for the NDP is the more accurate one. Much, of course, having to do with their place on the ideological spectrum. It's harder for more centrist parties to outperform. The NDP surge could do to the centre-left Liberals what Reform did to the centre-right PC.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos Reid seems very anti-Liberal (and pro Tory and NDP)

Speaking of Newspaper endorsements, the Citizen has endorsed the NDP candidate in Hull. Only NDP endorsement I've seen so far, but I'm not following it regularly.

Prediction: The NDP will either come very, very close to winning in Bramalea-Gore-Malton or will win it outright. They have a star candidate in Jagmeet Singh, a very young and charismatic lawyer. He's easily the most competent candidate running there.

http://www.youtube.com/user/jagmeetndp

Holy smokes, the contrast is crazy. Singh looks like the most foreign, but he speaks perfect English, while the other two are reading from their scripts with thick accents. Singh definitely represents the "new Canada".

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP smear campaign continues... something about Jack being caught naked in a massage parlour in 1996.... the media is grasping at straws...

This will only help him in Quebec

[Smid]

Oh, Lewis - have you seen the polling trend lines at ElectionAlmanac? I'm sure you have, but if not, they have polling tables and graphs.

[Meeker]

The NDP smear campaign continues... something about Jack being caught naked in a massage parlour in 1996.... the media is grasping at straws...

This will only help him in Quebec

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/04/29/layton-found-in-toronto-bawdy-house-former-cop

Layton's wife responds: http://www.oliviachow.ca/statement-from-olivia-chow

[Marokai Backbeat]

The attacks on the NDP have long seemed desperate and ridiculous for several days now but this seems incredibly absurd. Does the media really hate the NDP that much?