Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zinneke]

Here's a thought: would PVV be doing better or worse if it had the same issues etc but was led by a more bland-Hofer like individual than the divisive Wilders? (Ignoring of course that a PVV without Wilders wouldn't actually be the PVV)

Wilders is what keeps the party in the headlines. They have no other party structure or strategy that doesn't revolve around Geert Wilders.

Another party has already done better than Geertje without his antics : LPF. Another 1 man show, only the 1 man was considered smarter and more diplomatic than Wilders. Whatever legacy he'd have left, would be leading by 10 seats more.

[DC Al Fine]

I agree with others here that DENK are probably getting in; VNL and FVD are the only other ones who have a remotely realistic shot of getting in, but that's probably not happening anyway.

I wrote this for another, slightly less serious website on the parties that are on the ballot yet weren't elected in 2012. Don't shoot.

12. Ondernemerspartij: if you're not yet sick and tired of former PVV MP and known alcoholic troublemaker Hero Brinkman ("Drinkman"), who now pretends to stand up for small businesses' interests. Electoral potential: 0
13. VNL: if you agree with Wilders but don't think he has the best words -- a drunk like Jan Roos is obviously more sensitive -- and also want tax cuts. Electoral potential: 35% chance they get in.
14. DENK: if you think Erdogan is actually p cool. Electoral potential: 90% chance they get in.
15. NIEUWE WEGEN: if you're a social democrat fed up with the PvdA who wants less EU and, as opposed to the SP, less immigration, but you don't like Wilders for some reason. Electoral potential: <5% they get in.
16. Forum voor Democratie: if you're highly educated and like your party leader to lie on a piano and pretend his party is the new D66 while it's really a cheap copy of the PVV (but pro-Putin and pro-MRA). Electoral potential: 25% chance they get in.
17. De Burger Beweging: if you don't like the financial system but you also can't write proper Dutch. Electoral potential: 0
18. Vrijzinnige Partij: if you want a universal basic income and you think someone who split off from 50Plus is the man. Electoral potential: 0.
19. GeenPeil: if you think it's a good idea if MPs just vote on the basis of random open internet polls -- what could possibly go wrong? Electoral potential: <5% they get in.
20. Piratenpartij: if you think privacy is cool, or if you just think parliament would look better with a fetish model in it. Electoral potential: <5%.
21. Artikel1: if intersectional feminism is really your thing. Electoral potential: <5%.
22. Niet Stemmers: if you're a non-voter but you're voting anyway? Electoral potential: 0 (come on, their voters aren't voting...).
23: Libertarische Partij: if you think this country should become much more FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE BUT SOCIALLY LIBERAL. Also my first electoral love; 2012 parliamentary election, never forget Electoral potential: 0 (they even lost me lmao)
24: Lokaal in de Kamer: if you're a local, probably corrupt politician and you figure national politicians are spectacularly unpopular so why not try? Electoral potential: 0.
25. JEZUS LEEFT: if you think Jesus is alive? Electoral potential: 0.
26. StemNL: if you want to vote on issues instead of for parties and candidates. Electoral potential: 0.
27. MenS and Spirit/Basisinkomen/Blah blah blah: if you think homeopathy works, we should work on our chakras more, vaccines may not work, etc. Electoral potential: 0.
28. VDP: if you're a Turk, hate Jews and gays, and think DENK are cucks for even pretending to be inclusive. Electoral potential: 0 (thank f**k)

Not on the ballot this time and sorely missed are SOPN (anti-chemtrail party; still got more votes than the LP in 2012...), IQ Partij (openly racist party by a guy with an insane German accent who thinks Ashkenazi Jews are dangerous) and the LibDems (someone who has too much money but is antisemitic too).

I love how the Netherlands has PR with no threshold and they still have more fringe parties than most Western countries.

[Zinneke]

I agree with others here that DENK are probably getting in; VNL and FVD are the only other ones who have a remotely realistic shot of getting in, but that's probably not happening anyway.

I wrote this for another, slightly less serious website on the parties that are on the ballot yet weren't elected in 2012. Don't shoot.

12. Ondernemerspartij: if you're not yet sick and tired of former PVV MP and known alcoholic troublemaker Hero Brinkman ("Drinkman"), who now pretends to stand up for small businesses' interests. Electoral potential: 0
13. VNL: if you agree with Wilders but don't think he has the best words -- a drunk like Jan Roos is obviously more sensitive -- and also want tax cuts. Electoral potential: 35% chance they get in.
14. DENK: if you think Erdogan is actually p cool. Electoral potential: 90% chance they get in.
15. NIEUWE WEGEN: if you're a social democrat fed up with the PvdA who wants less EU and, as opposed to the SP, less immigration, but you don't like Wilders for some reason. Electoral potential: <5% they get in.
16. Forum voor Democratie: if you're highly educated and like your party leader to lie on a piano and pretend his party is the new D66 while it's really a cheap copy of the PVV (but pro-Putin and pro-MRA). Electoral potential: 25% chance they get in.
17. De Burger Beweging: if you don't like the financial system but you also can't write proper Dutch. Electoral potential: 0
18. Vrijzinnige Partij: if you want a universal basic income and you think someone who split off from 50Plus is the man. Electoral potential: 0.
19. GeenPeil: if you think it's a good idea if MPs just vote on the basis of random open internet polls -- what could possibly go wrong? Electoral potential: <5% they get in.
20. Piratenpartij: if you think privacy is cool, or if you just think parliament would look better with a fetish model in it. Electoral potential: <5%.
21. Artikel1: if intersectional feminism is really your thing. Electoral potential: <5%.
22. Niet Stemmers: if you're a non-voter but you're voting anyway? Electoral potential: 0 (come on, their voters aren't voting...).
23: Libertarische Partij: if you think this country should become much more FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE BUT SOCIALLY LIBERAL. Also my first electoral love; 2012 parliamentary election, never forget Electoral potential: 0 (they even lost me lmao)
24: Lokaal in de Kamer: if you're a local, probably corrupt politician and you figure national politicians are spectacularly unpopular so why not try? Electoral potential: 0.
25. JEZUS LEEFT: if you think Jesus is alive? Electoral potential: 0.
26. StemNL: if you want to vote on issues instead of for parties and candidates. Electoral potential: 0.
27. MenS and Spirit/Basisinkomen/Blah blah blah: if you think homeopathy works, we should work on our chakras more, vaccines may not work, etc. Electoral potential: 0.
28. VDP: if you're a Turk, hate Jews and gays, and think DENK are cucks for even pretending to be inclusive. Electoral potential: 0 (thank f**k)

Not on the ballot this time and sorely missed are SOPN (anti-chemtrail party; still got more votes than the LP in 2012...), IQ Partij (openly racist party by a guy with an insane German accent who thinks Ashkenazi Jews are dangerous) and the LibDems (someone who has too much money but is antisemitic too).

I love how the Netherlands has PR with no threshold and they still have more fringe parties than most Western countries.

The whole point is that any man and his dog can found a party and lead it to be the largest in the NL. Because there is PR with no threshold. See my post above and the LPF.

[DavidB.]

Pim Fortuyn was hardly "every man and his dog".

[Zinneke]

Pim Fortuyn was hardly "every man and his dog".

Dutch intelligentsia is full of Fortuyns.

That;s besides the point. He inspired all the egomaniacs in Holland (i.e a lot) that they could set up their party and achieve power. Maybe get shot in the process.

[DavidB.]

I fear you're getting ahead of yourself in your barely concealed dislike of the Netherlands. The number of parties on the ballot in Dutch elections hasn't significantly increased since 2002.

[Zinneke]

I fear you're getting ahead of yourself in your barely concealed dislike of the Netherlands.

Holland =/= Netherlands, believe it or not

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a) they have, 81 parties on the ballot this time round
b) The pillar system has been totally undone, first by the D66-VVD wave, then the LPF wave. Compared to Belgium there is much more party competition.

[DavidB.]

No, it is not true that there are 81 parties on the ballot. Again, you're misinformed but think you're informed, which seems to be a recurring pattern. 81 parties registered themselves with the Electoral Council, but only 28 of them have managed to meet the criteria to get on the ballot, which, while a lot, is the same number as in 1971 and 1981.

Depillarization and secularization obviously caused many voters to actually start choosing between parties, and volatility in the Netherlands is higher than in most if not all other Western European countries. I am not rebuking the claim that there is more party competition (however defined) in the Netherlands than in Belgium. I am rebuking the idea that there are more egomaniacs interested in power in the Netherlands than in other countries, and I am rebuking the claim that every idiot can lead their party to become an influential force in Dutch parliament. It is undoubtedly true that the Dutch electoral system causes crazies to think they can get in, but none of the real kooks actually do get in. Unless, of course, you want to argue the PVV and the like are not serious parties, in which case I guess we should move this thread to Individual Politics. And even if you think Baudet and Roos are non-serious (I won't dispute the idea that they are narcissists; they are), which I don't even if I'd find them to be redundant actors if elected, their participation in the election is hardly unparallelled outside the Netherlands; roughly similar parties exist in different national contexts.

I am interested in this debate about the Dutch electoral system, its merits and its disadvantages, but only if we take it to a somewhat higher level, actually start comparing it to other countries' systems and stop the boring bickering about "those egomaniacs from Holland", which I find to be a waste of time. Might as well go to the pub for that.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Actually, I'm surprised there are no Trots or other such Anticapitalist True Left types that believe SP are New Left sellouts. (This is where Greece, with its chaotic crew of squabbling subthreshold far-leftists, really shines)

[DavidB.]

Actually, I'm surprised there are no Trots or other such Anticapitalist True Left types that believe SP are New Left sellouts. (This is where Greece, with its chaotic crew of squabbling subthreshold far-leftists, really shines)

Trots op Nederland tried again (but didn't agree with paying 11,250 euros and are now going to court), but I guess that's not exactly what you were going for... But yeah, the Dutch far left is in shambles. The same is true for everything to the right of the PVV, the people who think Wilders is a Zionist sellout of the Aryan Dutch people or whatever. No neo-Nazis on the ballot, thankfully.

[freek]

Participating parties (by list number)

1 VVD
2 PvdA
3 PVV
4 SP
5 CDA
6 D66
7 ChristenUnie
8 GroenLinks
9 SGP
10 PvdD
11 50PLUS

new parties:



Numbers above the columns are electoral districts ('kieskring'). x means a party is participating in this district. Parties 1 - 11 participate in every district by default.
Most provinces are coterminous with 1 district. Provinces of Gelderland, Noord-Brabant, Noord-Holland and Zuid-Holland are subdivided. Amsterdam = 9, The Hague = 12, Rotterdam = 13. The Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius are district 20.

Map:

[Zinneke]

No, it is not true that there are 81 parties on the ballot. Again, you're misinformed but think you're informed, which seems to be a recurring pattern. 81 parties registered themselves with the Electoral Council, but only 28 of them have managed to meet the criteria to get on the ballot, which, while a lot, is the same number as in 1971 and 1981.

Granted, but it doesn't change my point that 81 parties are at least seeking to be elected to parliament, which a lot compared to other countries, which was the query (how come the Netherlands have so many parties given the low electoral threshold - the question answers itself). And yet, i contend the LPF had a massive effect as to what these usually local movements (his was the Leefbaar movement) could achieve.

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that's my main point, and I don't think that is a negative thing.

I am not saying that there a more egomaniacs in the Netherlands, I mentioned Holland, which I think gets an equal amount of chauvinistic banter from both the Belgians and our occupied provinces in Southern Netherlands. And even then I wasn't being serious, and I think most people can recognise this. You can take these jokes personally if you want.

I don't hate the Netherlands. I actually think 1830 can be interpreted retrospectively as a strategic mistake if a necessary one at the time due to under-representation. I also think we should co-operate with it more on a lot of issues, but that's not important for this thread

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The PVV is not a serious party, when its executive is quite literally composed of only an egomaniac and his own registered company. I think a party that had as its name the ''List <Party Name Leader>'', and broke up once he sadly disapeared from the scene, can be considered an egomaniac's project too.  

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I find it hilarious that a person who will be voting for the PVV and cheerleads Trump to bulldoze palestinian homes is going to lecture me on political correctness.

I love the Dutch electoral system, and the crazies its produced btw. Would take it here for the federal level in a heartbeat. We've only really had people like Dedecker to compete.

[DavidB.]

Freek's image for the other parties doesn't seem to be working, but I posted them on the previous page:

12. Ondernemerspartij
13. VNL
14. DENK
15. NIEUWE WEGEN
16. Forum voor Democratie
17. De Burger Beweging
18. Vrijzinnige Partij
19. GeenPeil
20. Piratenpartij
21. Artikel 1
22. Niet Stemmers
23: Libertarische Partij
24: Lokaal in de Kamer
25. JEZUS LEEFT
26. StemNL
27. MenS and Spirit
28. VDP

12 to 16 participate in all districts; 17 to 20 everywhere but in Bonaire, St. Eustatius and Saba; the others in less than that.

As for Rogier, I think I have made my point. It's absolutely true Fortuyn brought into existence a populist movement on the right, leading to ideological offshoots such as the PVV but also Trots, EenNL, DPK, Artikel 50, VNL, FVD... you name them. We don't even disagree here, but if you come up with formulations such as "any man and his dog can found a party and lead it to be the largest in the NL" you're suggesting something wholly different than what you're claiming now. If you say your repeated anti-Dutch comments are just banter that's fine by me. My point wasn't about "political correctness". I don't care for that. I just think a pub-tier discussion with all the country stereotypes isn't really worth my time. This is totally unrelated to my own political preferences (don't see the relevance of Trump or Israel here); I'm much more interested in discussing the specifics of electoral systems than in Very Important Issuez and think this thread gets most interesting when digging into Dutch political history, the consequences of the electoral system, the changing political landscape, electoral patterns etc.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wait does the former Netherlands Antilles vote in the general? Who do they go for?

[freek]

The image for the other parties doesn't seem to be working, but I posted them on the previous page:

Changed the image host to my own website. I hope this fixed it.

[freek]

Wait does the former Netherlands Antilles vote in the general? Who do they go for?

Only the three smallest islands. The other three (Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten) each are autonomous islands with their own parliament and government.

In practice, turnout is very low (<25% in 2012, the first time the islands participated).

Result in 2012:

PvdA  632   24,00 %
VVD   480   18,23 %
D66   441   16,75 %
CDA  428   16,26 %
SP     198     7,52 %
ChrU  117    4,44 %
PVV    75     2,85 %
GrL     68     2,58 %
PvdD  64      2,43 %
50+   53     2,01 %
SGP   11     0,42 %
Other 66     2,50 %

Invalid 14,15%

[DavidB.]

Thanks, Freek, it works for me now!

Wait does the former Netherlands Antilles vote in the general? Who do they go for?

Bonaire had 24.8% turnout in the 2012 election (2565 votes); 24% voted PvdA, 21% VVD, 19% CDA, 11% D66, so pretty representative (but with a much smaller PVV). Those are probably mostly ethnic Dutch people.

In Saba 228 people (28.4%) voted; the capital of Saba is named The Bottom and that's appropriate, because 54.5% voted for D66, so clearly they wanted to get f**ked. The PvdA came second with 20%.

On St. Eustatius, PvdA and D66 both got 28% and the SP 22%%. Turnout was only 15%, which is 274 voters. Aruba and Curaçao, the most populated ones, don't get to vote, because they are more autonomous.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

>JEZUS LEEFT



Is this some kind of joke-party?

[DavidB.]

>JEZUS LEEFT
Is this some kind of joke-party?

It's not a joke party. While they are never going to win any seats simply because they are clearly too crazy, they are serious about what they are doing: taking every opportunity to spread the gospel.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Their webpage looks kinda creepy.

[Dutch Conservative]

I'm much more interested in discussing the specifics of electoral systems than in Very Important Issuez and think this thread gets most interesting when digging into Dutch political history, the consequences of the electoral system, the changing political landscape, electoral patterns etc.

Just to make a start with that: i don't know for sure if it has been really discussed before in this thread, but one of the main problems of the current system (or: by many considered to be a problem) is the fragmentation of the political system and the distance between voters and their politicians. I think there are mainly two solutions to that. 1) introduction of a threshold or 2) introduction of a vote-by-district system (wich we have, but only as an administrative tool). You could also do both. Which of these two solutions do you consider the best fit for the Netherlands? I believe Thorbecke was an advocate for the constituency voting system, but ofcourse there weren't any political parties when he wrote the constitution.

Personally I would prefer optie 2, because that garantees the representation of geographical concentrated minorities in parliament (like the Biblebelt).

[DC Al Fine]

I'd prefer option two.

The Netherlands is unusually unsuited for FPTP. Although the nature of the parties is driven by the system, the citizens themselves play a role as well. Given that the electorate is quite fragmented, it's entirely possible that a party could win a Westminster style landslide on 25-30% of the vote. Better to have regional MMP IMO.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Actually the lack of districts does mean a pleasing absence of regionalist parties, which tend to be far worse than single-issue, one-man and even fringe ideological parties in terms of government formation and democratic accountability. If parliaments start to break down into huge crowds of LOCAL HEROES squirreling money to their districts in return for confidence and tit-for-tat, that's never a great sign.

However, I would much prefer the introduction of districts in an MMP system (preferably half with single-constitency IRV) than a threshold. I don't really think the fractiousness nature of government formation in the Netherlands is a fault of the PvdD, SGP, 50PLUS etc (in fact the main party leading to the destabilisation of governments is decidedly non-micro, given that it is leading in the polls).

[freefair]

Province based open list D'hondt would surely keep proportionality whilst giving greater local accountability? The effective threshold would be 100%/number of seats, which is usually OK.

[DavidB.]

1. The problem
The Dutch party system is historically based on (or "frozen in") a pillarized political context. Due to depillarization and individualization, voters have often become dealigned from political parties and are more likely to choose between parties in elections. Meanwhile, the differences on which the Dutch party system was based did not necessarily represent the divides in society anymore, which is why we have seen the emergence of parties such as D66, GroenLinks, SP and the PVV. Due to these developments, we are at risk of having no large parties anymore but rather five to seven mid-sized parties: political scientists call this an unusually high number of "effective parties." In 2010, the VVD became the largest party with only slightly over 20% of the vote.

While the nightmare of a five-party coalition has never actually occured since depillarization (the last government with more than three parties was the Den Uyl government), it is undeniable that both the formation process and, more importantly, governability of the country become more problematic by consequence of this fragmentation. A threshold won't solve this: the problem is not that we have too many small parties, but that there are no large parties anymore, meaning that too many parties have to be willing to sit in the government with each other. But it is not hard to see how a four or five-party coalition becomes unstable and increases the electoral strength of parties on both extremes of the political landscape that are not or barely coalitionable, thus necessitating a coalition consisting of even more parties in the following election.

Related to the problem of governability is the lack of accountability, both in large coalitions that consist of many parties and in grand coalitions that are formed despite the parties' differences, such as the current Rutte-II government. It is clearly unsatisfying to voters when VVD and PvdA end up in a coalition after campaigning fiercely against one another and deriving their strength from voters' aversion of the other party. Why even vote, in that case? This would obviously be even more problematic in, say, a VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA-CU coalition. In that case, the only meaningful divide to voters will become "establishment vs. anti-establishment", perpetuating the vicious cycle of rendering coalition formation and governability even more difficult while fuelling political distrust and eroding the legitimacy of the Dutch system. In addition to this, voters do not have a connection with MPs in the Dutch system due to the fact that the country functions as one district.

Ideally, one would like to have a clear policy alternative to a certain government. This is best facilitated in systems where the only two viable candidates are clearly on the left and clearly on the right, such as in the UK (disregarding constituencies where third parties are viable). In the Netherlands, however, a vote for an establishment opposition party often means virtually no change in terms of government policies even if said opposition party enters the government. At the same time, it is almost impossible to "do away with" an unpopular government party, because the political constellation might necessitate the inclusion of said unpopular party anyway. Electoral competition is at risk of becoming meaningless.

Tl;dr: there are no large parties anymore and too many mid-sized parties, leading to either the necessity of grand coalitions or extremely large coalitions while there are no clear policy alternatives to establishment coalitions, eroding political legitimacy.

2. The solution
How to solve this? The proportionality of the Dutch system is rooted in the reality of the Netherlands always having been a country of minorities. Negotiating with others has always been necessary, and taking into account minority opinions is typically Dutch. I'd rather not do away with small parties such as the PvdD or the SGP, even more so because they are not part of the problem anyway. So in the ideal system those parties' voices are still heard, but governments have a clearer ideological profile or, at the very least, do not have to consist of more than three parties. In addition, it would be good to add a district component in order to stimulate contact between MPs and voters and decrease "the gap between politics and citizens", as we say in Dutch.

So here's an idea for a Mixed Member Majoritarian (MMM) system. One gets two votes: one for a representative in a single-member constituency, the other for a list vote. We increase the number of seats in parliament by 50 (our parliament is currently undersized) to 200. 100 MPs are elected proportionally the way we do it now, securing the parliamentary presence of all mid-sized and small parties (especially if you take into account that tactical voting in two-horse races is unlikely to happen for these 100 seats anymore, slightly improving small and mid-sized parties' position). The other 100 MPs are elected in single-member constituencies, using first-past-the-post (FPTP). While two-horse races are not guaranteed and there will probably still five parties that are able to actually win seats, this system will improve the position of large parties. A two-horse race in the campaign may lead to an ideologically clear coalition formed by the winner. Four years later, one of the losing parties can emerge, express its preference for a clearly different alternative, campaign on this alternative and either win or lose the election. Political competition becomes more meaningful that way.

This solves the problem with the large number of mid-sized parties: there will mostly be one, two or sometimes three large parties. Smaller parties (that currently belong to the mid-sized category) will generally still have to be included in coalitions in order to reach a majority, but due to their size they will not be able to "blur" the coalition's ideological direction as much as is now the case. By ending the vicious cycle of ideologically undefined coalitions being reelected again and again in slightly different compositions, we Make Electoral Competition Meaningful Again and bring to a halt the ever-increasing distrust of politics.

(Another idea would be a 50-seat "Greek bonus" for the winner of the election.)