MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[SCNCmod]

Absentee ballot returns in St. Louis City and St. Louis County are up significantly from 2014.

Ebsy- what's the general reputation or impression of Hawley among the average everyday voter in Missouri?

[SCNCmod]

Is Obama not hugely popular in St Louis since its practically a part of Ill?  Why is he not doing a GOTV event in St Louis?

[pops]

Well guys, Claire McCaskill has started her last ditch effort: sending pro-Campbell mailers out to people.

[SCNCmod]

Well guys, Claire McCaskill has started her last ditch effort: sending pro-Campbell mailers out to people.

This wasn't via McCaskill... it was an outside group.  When McCaskill wants to pull a political move- she does it legally and puts her name on it (ie her TV ads saying her last opponent was too conservative during the Republican Primary).

[Ebsy]

Absentee ballot returns in St. Louis City and St. Louis County are up significantly from 2014.

Ebsy- what's the general reputation or impression of Hawley among the average everyday voter in Missouri?

I mean, Republicans like him but I would not say there is a ton of enthusiasm for him or anything. Lots of people think he handled the Greitens situation poorly, and honestly that is why I think he has struggled so much. He managed to upset Greitens' supporters by jumping ship when things started to look rough and also people who hated Greitens by refusing to investigate him from the beginning. Hawley is also just... boring? Hard to get people excited about such a dull guy.

[J. J.]

Is Obama not hugely popular in St Louis since its practically a part of Ill?  Why is he not doing a GOTV event in St Louis?

He lost the state twice and McCatskill does not want to be associated with the Democratic establishment. 

[pops]

Well guys, Claire McCaskill has started her last ditch effort: sending pro-Campbell mailers out to people.

This wasn't via McCaskill... it was an outside group.  When McCaskill wants to pull a political move- she does it legally and puts her name on it (ie her TV ads saying her last opponent was too conservative during the Republican Primary).

She wasn't down in the polls a week before election day in 2012. Sleazy people do desperate things in politics.

[SCNCmod]

Well guys, Claire McCaskill has started her last ditch effort: sending pro-Campbell mailers out to people.

This wasn't via McCaskill... it was an outside group.  When McCaskill wants to pull a political move- she does it legally and puts her name on it (ie her TV ads saying her last opponent was too conservative during the Republican Primary).

She wasn't down in the polls a week before election day in 2012. Sleazy people do desperate things in politics.

If she was going to risk pull a questionable move... she's savvy enough that she would do something more effective.  A mailer like the one you mentioned is not going to sway the election... and McCaskill is smart enough to know this.

[Ebsy]

Claire endorsed by the Kansas City Star. Obviously not too important but they are pretty scathing towards everyone's favorite ladder.

[SCNCmod]

Here are the closing ads so far (past week) in MO...

b]McCaskill Ads released in the past week [/b]
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1057694648372731904
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1055651043021733888
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1057279102795898880
https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1057660506004226049
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1055641072720736256

============================================================

Hawley Ads released in the past week
https://twitter.com/MissouriGOP/status/1050379740639449089
I assume Hawley either has additional ads out this week that he just hasn't posted on social media yet.. or either he will put out closing ads this weekend.  This was the only ad I could find released in the past week.

[J. J.]

She's been talking about the "crazy Democrats."

[SCNCmod]

She's been talking about the "crazy Democrats."

She called crazy Dems... the Dems who are harassing people in restaurants, etc ... she was not referring to any policy positions.

[libertpaulian]

Gun to your head, who wins?  I'd especially like to hear from the Show-Me-Staters.

[Ebsy]

Gun to your head, who wins?  I'd especially like to hear from the Show-Me-Staters.

Never bet against Claire.

[jamestroll]

Gun to your head, who wins?  I'd especially like to hear from the Show-Me-Staters.

back of my head... Claire..

logistics and fundamentals.. Hawley  (Trump +19 state, over 80% white, incumbent has low favorable ratings and stuck in the mid-40s in polling.. etc)

[Adam Griffin]

WRT that Hawley ad, they're just re-running it again (or reposting on social media). Hawley already ran a TV campaign of that ad back during the second week of October.

[SCNCmod]

Just watching the race from outside of the state (not knowing whats going on in MO itself) ...I've been surprised at how well McCaskill is holding up in the MO polls (keeping it basically tied).  In fact the trendline graph on RCP actually looks better for McCaskill than Hawley.

From an outsiders look- it would seem that McCaskill may have weaker minority support on election day than in past years... and that she is really going to have to rely on crossover vote.  (But this thinking is mainly due to hearing National media stories regarding calling Dems who protest Republican officials in restaurants etc... crazy Dems, etc)....which I guess in reality may not be as big of a deal in the state?

Also- I get the sense that the national media may be, possibly, portraying Hawley as a stronger candidate than he actually is in the state.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans may not like it, but unlike Heitkamp, Nelson, or Donnelly, McCaskill is insanely skilled at firing up the Democratic base, and that matters a lot in a midterm like this. I wouldn’t be surprised if she outperformed the polling average by 2-4 points or won by more than Donnelly in a big wave, although I maintain that she’s going to lose if Republicans are having a better than expected night. Still a Toss-up, but Republicans shouldn’t underestimate her just because she might not be as "moderate" or "popular" as some other red state Democrats.

[Aurelio21]

Mrs McCaskill is quite skilled with going negative. She deposed the sitting governor of her own party in 2004 with the term "One-Term-Bob". Now she defines Mr Hawley quite negatively as well. As my pre-poster said, other Democrats(especially the one in TX) are not remotely as skillful and/or have the suiting opponent. Going negative is quite important and easiest-for-common to understand skill to show leadership. Honestly, who does not appreciate a brawl?

Yet she needs to be lucky to keep her momentum on election day with her base, while hoping that making the election a referendum about her vs her challenger while pushing any presidential trends promoted by Mr Trump into the background. That's quite a Task.

[SCNCmod]

Here are the closing ads so far (past week) in MO...

McCaskill Ads released in the past week
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1057694648372731904
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1055651043021733888
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1057279102795898880
https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1057660506004226049
https://twitter.com/McCaskill4MO/status/1055641072720736256

============================================================

Hawley Ads released in the past week
https://twitter.com/MissouriGOP/status/1050379740639449089
I assume Hawley either has additional ads out this week that he just hasn't posted on social media yet.. or either he will put out closing ads this weekend.  This was the only ad I could find released in the past week.

McCaskill's Ads are by far the best ads I've seen in the country (I think the 2nd Ad above "Youngest Woman in Jeff City", is especially strong) (and a pretty effective attack in the 1st ad as I think that was even an issue that Hawley was worried about).  If it really is a tied race, such a good ad campaign could actually make the difference.  (Hawley's ad, although misleading, is actually a decent attack ad as well.... however usually attack ads that ring a bit of truth tend to be most effective... and I tend to think the fact that she has got some flack from the left may make this ad less effective)... but I guess you never know which attack ads will work.

[J. J.]

Gun to my head, Hawley.

I keep going back to 2016.  Trump underpolled by 6 points verus the RCP average.  If it is a third of that this cycle, Hawley wins.

[Aurelio21]

McCaskill's Ads are by far the best ads I've seen in the country (I think the 2nd Ad above "Youngest Woman in Jeff City", is especially strong) (and a pretty effective attack in the 1st ad as I think that was even an issue that Hawley was worried about).  If it really is a tied race, such a good ad campaign could actually make the difference.  (Hawley's ad, although misleading, is actually a decent attack ad as well.... however usually attack ads that ring a bit of truth tend to be most effective... and I tend to think the fact that she has got some flack from the left may make this ad less effective)... but I guess you never know which attack ads will work.

Personally, I am rather watching the trendlines of polls than the poll itself. Anyone who has to defend Mr Hawly by "muh, 2016 polls were off" likely has a big poster of Kellyanne Conway over his/her bed.

Mr Hawley makes an impression of a carpetbeggar. Like any good politician, McCaskill (or her appearantly excellent staff members) is/are smelling blood and seemingly have succeeded in defining him rather letting him define himself as bland, nice guy which would have delivered him the victory without any effort. With these adds and the mini-scandal of hiring consultants which made for him the job as AG, he plays for promotion to the Akin-Murdouck-Angle-Premier league.

[mcmikk]

Mrs McCaskill is quite skilled with going negative. She deposed the sitting governor of her own party in 2004 with the term "One-Term-Bob". Now she defines Mr Hawley quite negatively as well. As my pre-poster said, other Democrats(especially the one in TX) are not remotely as skillful and/or have the suiting opponent. Going negative is quite important and easiest-for-common to understand skill to show leadership. Honestly, who does not appreciate a brawl?

I really admire her ruthless aggression compared to the lot of the other bland waffle-y red state Dems.

[SCNCmod]

Gun to my head, Hawley.

I keep going back to 2016.  Trump underpolled by 6 points verus the RCP average.  If it is a third of that this cycle, Hawley wins.

I keep wondering if the polling models in states that were outside the margin of error in 2016 (MO, IN, etc)... will experience an overcorrection in the polling models for 2018 as the pendulum of Trump support swing back a bit.

[SCNCmod]

Mrs McCaskill is quite skilled with going negative. She deposed the sitting governor of her own party in 2004 with the term "One-Term-Bob". Now she defines Mr Hawley quite negatively as well. As my pre-poster said, other Democrats(especially the one in TX) are not remotely as skillful and/or have the suiting opponent. Going negative is quite important and easiest-for-common to understand skill to show leadership. Honestly, who does not appreciate a brawl?

I really admire her ruthless aggression compared to the lot of the other bland waffle-y red state Dems.

I like that she can come across as both ruthless, but yet still very sincere and a hard worker for her state.  That's a hard combo to pull off- and I think even harder for a female politician to pull off.