Portugal's politics and elections

[Former President tack50]

Why is BE doing so well? (Especially compared to CDU)

[Farmlands]

Why is BE doing so well? (Especially compared to CDU)

My take on it as a semi-regular BE voter: CDU's base, as many polls have shown, is largely old and rural, which is slowly dying off, and not bringing in any new young voters with their mix of old school communism and neutrality or conservatism on social issues.

Meanwhile, BE appeals to a growing urban and young audience who might care about LGBT equality or marijuana legalization or even healthcare nationalisation a bit more.

[Mike88]

Why is BE doing so well? (Especially compared to CDU)

My take on it as a semi-regular BE voter: CDU's base, as many polls have shown, is largely old and rural, which is slowly dying off, and not bringing in any new young voters with their mix of old school communism and neutrality or conservatism on social issues.

Meanwhile, BE appeals to a growing urban and young audience who might care about LGBT equality or marijuana legalization or even healthcare nationalisation a bit more.

Exactly. To add also that BE media strategy is very effective, much more than CDU. And also, BE is quite strong, at the moment, because, like Farmlands said, of their big support in young urban voters, which may not be that solid, as many of them voted PSD prior to 2015, as it was one of the most curious swings in the 2015 elections.

BE has been able to become an ally and, at the same time, an enemy to Costa. The relation between PS and BE is very dysfunctional and each other attack one another constantly and both seem to gain from it. CDU is the huge loser in all of this. If the 2015 agreement saved PCP's power on unions and prevented privatization of public transports and others, the last 4 years were really harsh for CDU as their electorate is becoming older and, for the average voter, they feel like yesterday news. The popularity of Jerónimo de Sousa is still very important for PCP, and when he leaves the leadership, which could be quite soon, PCP has real challenge ahead in terms of survival, as the emergence of PAN has also stolen the environment flags from CDU, especially PEV.

[Mike88]

1st debate of the 2019 general elections held today - Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU) vs Costa (PS).

https://twitter.com/psocialista/status/1168615936103837696

The debate was quite soft, with only the labour laws the only point of tension between Costa and Jerónimo. Jerónimo looked a bit tired but was able to score some points, against Costa, on the labour laws that were approved by PS and PSD. Costa kept a cool and calm figure during, almost, the whole of the debate.

Next debate is tomorrow between Catarina Martins (BE) vs Assunção Cristas (CDS) on RTP.

Also, found also a very good site about polls for the 2019 general elections: https://filipvanlaenen.github.io/portuguese_polls/index.html

It has poll averages, seat projections and range of % each of the major parties can get. Their current average of the polls is the following:

37.7% PS
22.3% PSD
10.3% BE
  6.8% CDU
  5.0% CDS
  4.2% PAN
  1.2% Alliance
12.5% Others/Invalid

[Former President tack50]

No 5 way debates with all main candidates?

A debate between Costa and Jeronimo de Sousa seems weird. I would expect a general debate (with all parties) or a debate between just the 2 who can theoretically form a government (PS and PSD), not a debate with one of the large parties and a small one.

[Mike88]

No 5 way debates with all main candidates?

A debate between Costa and Jeronimo de Sousa seems weird. I would expect a general debate (with all parties) or a debate between just the 2 who can theoretically form a government (PS and PSD), not a debate with one of the large parties and a small one.

There will be 2 debates between the main 6 parties: one on 18 September on the 3 main news radios, and another, on 23 September, on RTP1. There will be also a debate between Rio and Costa: one on 16 September broadcast by the three main TV networks.

These kind of one-on-one debates started in 1999, with the famous "potato debate" between António Guterres (PS) and Paulo Portas (CDS), where the prices of goods and Portas love of parties and pilgrimages made Guterres mock him. In 2002 the model was dropped, and in 2005, there was only one-on-one debate between the 3 smaller parties, CDS, CDU and BE. PS and PSD debated with each other and in a debate with all 5 parties. The current model started in 2009, and was repeated in 2011, 2015 and, now, 2019. This model makes that all parties represented in Parliament are in the same level, in debate terms.

Between 1975 and 1985, some debates were held. In 1975, there was a debate with all of the main parties, the same in 1983. Between 1985 and 1995, no debates were held as Cavaco Silva (PSD) refused to join the debates. The debates returned in 1995 with 2 debates between António Guterres (PS) and Fernando Nogueira (PSD).

[Mike88]

2019 election campaign: António Costa and Rui Rio interviews and debate between Cristas (CDS) and Martins (BE).

Yesterday night was Rui Rio turn to face questions on TVI program "I have a question for you". In the interview, Rio refused any coalition with Costa but is open to negotiate with the PS structural reforms on the economy, health, justice, others, and is willing to support a PS led government if the PS pledges to negotiate with the PSD these reforms. He also said he doesn't think on "the day after" the general elections, as he's focused to win the elections. He added that, if the PSD loses badly, he will consider his position as party chair and ask himself if he's still usefull for the country. On twitter, his interview was very well regarded: 76% approved, while 23% disapproved. Part of the interview:
https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1168996005041381377

Rui Rio: "[Government's] strategy with truck drivers and teachers was the same"

Yesterday night was also debate night between Assunção Cristas (CDS) and Catarina Martins (BE). The debate was quite dull with neither side being to strong. Cristas accused BE of trying to kill of tax benefits for the middle class, while Martins accused CDS of wanting to transform Portugal into an offshore like Luxembourg. Nonetheless, buzz on social media was about Catarina Martins weird statement about dams:
https://twitter.com/ogatopolitico/status/1169044323750617089

We are losing water because we have many dams and the water evaporates.

António Costa, PM and PS leader, was interview this evening on SIC. During the interview, Costa was asked if he saw the PSD and Rio as his main rival, where Costa answered of course as it is the second largest party. Costa also refused any coalition with the PSD, but, like Rio, is open to negotiate structural reforms with the PSD, although he's dislikes many of the PSD' ideas. He also said that these election aren't a referendum on absolute majorities and that he never though in hitting in Sócrates when talking about how the Portuguese dislike single parties majorities. Full interview here:
https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1169364275347054603

[Mike88]

Debate between Antonio Costa (PS) and Catarina Martins (BE) held tonight:

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1170079112255291393

Debate António Costa - Catarina Martins: Friendship vows renewed despite clash on nationalizations.

It was a much more soft debate than one might think, after the recent PS-BE bad relations, but Costa and Martins attacked each other on policies and manifestos. Costa attacked BE's irresponsibility in not doing simple math by wanting to increase spending to double digits of GDP. He also said he will not waste taxpayers money in nationalizing many former state companies, like postal services (CTT), airports (ANA) or electricity distribution (REN). Catarina Martins, on the other hand, attacked the PS labour reforms and said the PS fiscal numbers are weird and that they are hidding budget cuts. She also took a jab against Costa when he attacked the BE for fiscal irresponsibility saying the BE is the only party where the Constitutional Court says it has a balance budget, while the PS is in a very bad financial state.  

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll from September:

Vote share %:

38.1% PS (+0.8 )
23.3% PSD (-0.3)
  9.0% BE (nc)
  6.9% CDU (+0.1)
  6.0% CDS (-0.4)
  4.4% PAN (+0.1)
  1.7% Alliance (+0.2)
10.6% Others/Invalid (-0.5)

Popularity ratings: (Approve; Disapprove; margin)

70.7%;   6,7%, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa +64.0%
55.7%; 23.1%, António Costa +32.6%
42.4%; 26.5%, Government +16.9%
43.2%; 31.8%, Rui Rio +11.6%
41.0%; 31.2%, Jerónimo de Sousa +9.8%
39.2%; 30.3%, Catarina Martins +8.9%
36.1%; 33.3%, Assunção Cristas +2.8%

Poll conducted between 1 and 5 September 2019. Polled 1,022 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll on regionalization:

Q1: Are you in favour of the creation of administrative regions in Mainland Portugal?

51% Yes
39% No
10% Undecided

By region:

North region (35% of the population): 54% Yes; 37% No; 9% Undecided
Center region (22% of the population): 50% Yes; 39% No; 11% Undecided
Lisbon region (28% of the population): 48% No; 40% Yes; 12% Undecided
Alentejo region (7% of the population): 47% Yes; 40% No; 13% Undecided
Algarve region (4% of the population): 55% Yes; 35% No; 10% Undecided

By party:

PS voters: 54% Yes; 35% No; 11% Undecided
PSD+CDS voters: 48% Yes; 45% No; 7% Undecided
CDU voters: 45% No; 39% Yes; 16% Undecided
BE voters: 57% Yes; 36% No; 7% Undecided

Q2: Do you think power and decisions are too much concentrated in Lisbon?

65% Yes
30% No
  5% Undecided

By region:

North region: 73% Yes; 24% No; 3% Undecided
Center region: 73% Yes; 23% No; 4% Undecided
Lisbon region: 49% Yes; 46% No; 5% Undecided
Alentejo region: 64% Yes; 31% No; 5% Undecided
Algarve region: 71% Yes; 24% No; 5% Undecided

Q3: How should the government handle the question of regionalization?

56% By referendum
35% By a vote in Parliament
  9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 12 and 24 August 2019. Polled 1,526 voters. MoE of 2.56%

Note: In 1998, regionalization was rejected with 64% against and 36% in favour, with a 48% turnout referendum.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

why is Lisbon region opposed? Suburbs that fear amalgamation? beneficiaries from centralization?

[Mike88]

why is Lisbon region opposed? Suburbs that fear amalgamation? beneficiaries from centralization?

It's unclear. One might think that Lisbon voters may fear a loss of influence and decision making, as many poorer regions like North and Center, could become much more competitive and attract more rapidly foreign investment that otherside would probably go to Lisbon. Regionalization is a very toxic topic in Portugal. I myself don't see it as the right solution, as it will create more spending for regional structures and if we have already problems financing the national structures, how will it work then? In fact, the 1998 referendum was huge fiasco mainly because of the North and Center that rejected regionalization by huge margins of 65%+, while Lisbon and the South were much more favourable to regionalization. Of course, the then proposed map was ludicrous, dividing the North and Center in smaller regions, which infuriated voters in the North and Center.

This poll helps to sense the mood on regionalization, but it's still unclear if the the trend has changed dramatically. And even in the main party leaders, the topic is confusing. Costa was in favour of it, now he has drop it, while Rio is now defending it, although the PSD is very divided on this issue.

[Former President tack50]

Is there any concrete proposal for regionalization/devolution or just a vague term?

How would those "Portuguese regions" look like? Something like Spain's autonomous communities? A fully federal Portugal? Or maybe just a bit of devolution but not too much?

[Mike88]

Is there any concrete proposal for regionalization/devolution or just a vague term?

How would those "Portuguese regions" look like? Something like Spain's autonomous communities? A fully federal Portugal? Or maybe just a bit of devolution but not too much?

There's no real or concrete proposal yet. Everthing is quite vague and only to defend a debate to start talking about regionalization. But, I believe the new regions would have a system just like Madeira and Azores. The most agreeable map is the "7 regions map": Link to map image. In terms of population, the regions would be like this:

North: 3,572,583
Center: 2,216,569
Lisbon: 2,846,332
Alentejo: 705,478
Algarve: 438,864
Azores: 242,846
Madeira: 253,945

The system would be very similar to the Spanish one, in my view. What is happening right now is devolution to local councils, as they will be able to run schools, have greater autonomy on taxes and so on. But, local councils are not very happy with this devolution as the central government isn't giving them more money, and many local councils don't have the means to run these things. So, many, especially in the North and Center, are campaigning strongly for regionalization.

[urutzizu]

Are there any strong regional/sub national identities in Portugal, as is the case in Spain/UK, or is it rather that most Portuguese identify with Portugal mainly and less with their Region (like in France)?

[Mike88]

Are there any strong regional/sub national identities in Portugal, as is the case in Spain/UK, or is it rather that most Portuguese identify with Portugal mainly and less with their Region (like in France)?

Not really. For a period, after the 1974 revolution, there were independence movements in Madeira and Azores, the more radical ones in Madeira, but they had very little or no support and collapsed very shortly. But, overall there's no sub-national identity in Portugal, like in Spain or the UK. Regionalization in Portugal is more about the very big centralization of the country' decisions, investments and attention in Lisbon, which upsets the rest of the country. There's a feeling that politicians in Lisbon don't know the real needs of rural voters across the country, and even urban voters outside Lisbon, and that's why regionalization is very popular in politicians outside Lisbon. You could say they feel powerless and want more power.

[Mike88]

Election campaign officially starts for the Madeira regional elections:

Almost 258,000 voters are registered to vote in the Madeira regional elections on September 22. 17 parties/coalitions will be on the ballot, a record number. 47 regional MP are to be elected by a single constituency, using the d'Hondt method.

The pre-election campaign already has given us some signs of the mood of the islands. Rallies for the PSD seem to be bigger and mobilization for the PSD seems quite strong, however the PSD machine in Madeira is brutal. The PSD is campaigning really hard against António Costa, with Albuquerque talking and criticizing more Costa than the actual PS-Madeira main candidate. The PS campaign seems more demoralized, according to pundits, with low attendance at rallies and a few cancellation of rallies. The party is still divided about what happened in the 2018 leadership elections, as Cafôfo, the PS main candidate and who isn't a PS member, isn't an unanimous figure in the party. CDS and BE seem to battleling for third place, with CDS is campaining as the "king maker". JPP and CDU are in trouble, according to polls, while it's expected that PAN will return to the Madeira Parliament. There have been very few polls, the last one had PSD ahead of PS by just 2%, 33% to 31%. More polls are expected in the next two weeks.

A curious situation in the Madeira election, is the importance of the "Latino vote", immigrants that fled Venezuela and that are now residing in Madeira. The number isn't exact, but around 6,000 immigrants from Venezuela are registered to vote in the elections. Both PSD and PS are campaigning hard for this crucial electorate, which could tip the balance for either side in a close election.

Election Campaign posters from the main parties for the Madeira regional elections:

PSD - Social Democratic Party
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1170666821332197381

Accomplish in the right direction. Miguel Abuquerque

PS - Socialist Party
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1170430001180807169

Paulo Cafôfo, Courage to Change.

CDS - CDS-People's Party
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1170661613726289920

This is the moment. Rui Barreto

BE - Left Bloc
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1170447597485641733

Madeira for all

CDU - Unitarian Democratic Coalition
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1170792913569296386

CDU, the vote that counts

PTP - Portuguese Labour Party
https://twitter.com/ArquivoEphemera/status/1170431597109268480

Together, we'll hunt the "rats". Raquel Coelho

PSD has been in power in Madeira for 43 years now, since 1976.

[Mike88]

2019 election debates: And the most tense debate was between Rui Rio (PSD) and André Silva (PAN).

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1171182571486662656

"That's the 80's little ecology!" Environment, animals and energy. It was the PAN that dictated the rules in the debate with Rio:

Of all of the debates so far, it was the most tense and heated, with the most unexpected players. Rio and André Silva debated, last night on RTP1, and both threw arguments against one another. Silva accused, over and over again, the PSD of not having a single environmental policy in their manifesto, a remark Rio, for his part, denied over and over again. Rio accused PAN of being a "fundamentalist party" and accused PAN of being to radical by wainting to change the economy, in terms of carbon very fast. The NHS for animals was also a hot topic, as Rio said he would never finance an NHS for animals when the real NHS is in just dire state. He, between the lines, almost accused PAN of caring more for animals than ordinary people. PAN accused PSD of having "20th century policies" and of having zero intentions towards the environment.

Pundits were quite stunned by the aggressiveness of André Silva. He dominated the debate as he blocked any chance for Rio to talk about financial or economic issues.

[Mike88]

PAN changes policy on domestic abuse after social media erupted with criticisms:

PAN has changed a policy on their manifesto regarding domestic abuse crimes. The policy would, in PAN words, "make it compulsory for prisoners convicted of violent crimes against other persons to hold a weekly reconciliation session with the relatives of the victims, upon their acceptance, and, and if it is not murder, also with the victims themselves."

The policy was very criticized on social media, and, now, PAN has changed the policy by excluding domestic abuse or rape from the text. PAN says the "initial writing was not enlightening".

[Mike88]

Poll averages 25 days away from election day:

POLITICO poll of polls: (compared with the last average)

Vote share %:

39.9% PS (-1.5)
22.0% PSD (+1.1)
  9.5% BE (-0.8 )
  6.8% CDU (+0.3)
  5.6% CDS (+0.8 )
  4.1% PAN (+0.7)
  1.7% Alliance (+0.2)
10.4% Others/Invalid (-0.8 )

Portuguese Polls average of polls: (compared with the last average)

Vote share %:

38.0% PS (+0.3)
22.2% PSD (-0.1)
10.2% BE (-0.1)
  6.9% CDU (+0.1)
  5.0% CDS (nc)
  4.2% PAN (nc)
  1.3% Alliance (+0.1)
12.2% Others/Invalid (-0.3)

[Mike88]

Madeira regional election official page is already up:

https://www.regionais2019.mai.gov.pt/

The page has all the candidates from the 17 lists running, sample ballots and, on election day, will release turnout numbers during the day and, after 19:00h, official results will be also posted in the page.

[Mike88]

An interesting graphic that shows the positions of voters from the main parties in terms of spending issues: (from the 2015 post election survey)

https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1168591962112495616
Saúde - Health; Educação - Education; Pensão de reform - Retirees pensions; Beneficios sociais - Social benefits; Apoio a desempregados - Unemployment support.
1 - Should spend much more
3 - The same as now
5 - Should spend much less

A curious alignment between all four main parties at the time, 2015, but it probably didn't changed much since then, in terms of spending. PàF (PSD+CDS), of course, is a bit more in favour of less spending, but only just. Interesting that in terms of social benefits, the range puts PàF and BE almost in the same position.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share % and seat projection:
(116 needed for a majority)

37.9% PS, 114 seats
23.6% PSD, 67
  9.8% BE, 18
  8.6% CDU, 16
  6.3% CDS, 9
  5.2% PAN, 6
  8.6% Others/Invalid, 0

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

4.1 President of the Republic
3.3 António Costa
3.2 Government
3.1 Catarina Martins
3.1 Parliament
2.9 Jerónimo de Sousa
2.8 André Silva
2.6 Rui Rio
2.5 Assunção Cristas

Poll conducted between 2 and 11 September 2019. Polled 801 voters. MoE of 3.5%.

[Mike88]

More polling:

Aximage poll for JE newspaper:

Vote share %:

38.4% PS (+0.9)
20.6% PSD (-3.0)
10.2% BE (+0.8 )
  5.2% CDU (-1.4)
  4.9% PAN (+0.9)
  4.6% CDS (-0.3)
13.1% Others/Invalid (+2.9)
  2.8% Undecided (-0.6)

Preferred PM:

48.0% António Costa (-7.3)
19.5% Rui Rio (-7.7)

Party/candidate rejection:

77.8% CH
75.5% Livre
73.6% PDR
69.5% Alliance
65.1% PAN
61.8% CDU
60.9% CDS
52.5% BE
44.4% PSD
33.1% PS

Poll conducted between 1 and 8 September. Polled 985 voters. MoE of 3.10%

Gfk/Metris poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:

42% PS (+4)
23% PSD (nc)
  9% BE (-2)
  6% CDU (-2)
  5% CDS (nc)
  4% PAN (nc)
  0% Alliance (nc)
  5% Others (nc)
  6% Blank/Invalid (nc)

Poll conducted between 24 August and 5 September. Polled 801 voters. MoE of 3.50%

[Mike88]

Debate night between António Costa (PS) and Assunção Cristas (CDS).

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1172613465086877696

"Costa has several alternatives available. CDS isn't one of them."Assunção Cristas, in the debate with António Costa, live, on TVI

Both Cristas and Costa were on the attack. Cristas waved with the fear of the left parties, PS-BE-CDU-PAN, achieving 2/3 of seats in Parliament, while Costa threw at Cristas her unpopular housing policies, when she was a minister (2011-2015), and CDS' controversial policy of college entries. Both agreed that a huge ditch separate both parties. Cristas accused Costa of increasing the tax burden by more than 1% in 4 years, while Costa accused Cristas of wanting to cut taxes of fossil fuels which will hurt the environment. During the debate, Costa promissed to cut taxes, in the next parliament, particularly direct taxes on labour. Cristas promissed to support tax cuts and accused the PS, and Costa, of lying by raising the tax burden and failing to turn the page on austerity.