Gubernatorial Ratings and Predictions - Montana

[Xing]

Somewhere between Lean and Likely D, but I'll go with the latter, since Bullock is decently popular. Hard to predict a margin without any polls, especially since I'm not sure whether Bullock has a ton of crossover appeal, and is headed for a large margin of victory, or if not as many voters are going to split their ticket in this race. I'll split the difference and say Bullock wins 52-43, for now.

Current Balance of Power:
Republicans: 27
Democrats: 13
Independents: 1

Ratings:

Safe D: Delaware (Jack Markell)
Likely D: -
Lean D: Missouri (Jay Nixon)
Toss-Up: Indiana (Mike Pence)
Lean R: -
Likely R: -
Safe R: -

Predictions:

Past winners:

John Carney (D-DE)
John Gregg (D-IN)
Chris Koster (D-MO)

Previous Threads: (You can still vote in these!)
Delaware Indiana Missouri

[Figueira]

Lean D. Gianforte is a terrible candidate, Bullock is one of the country's most popular governors, it's a Democratic year nationwide, and Montana has a history of electing Democrats in statewide elections. It's only a "Lean" because it's a Republican state and there haven't been any polls.

[Heisenberg]

Bullock is popular, but as there are no polls, I will simply say Likely D out of caution.

[Fitzgerald]

Safe D, 53-44-3 in Bullock's favor. If Hill couldn't beat him in what was an excellent Republican year here, Gianforte - quite possibly the worst of a frankly terrible state party - doesn't stand a chance.

[BuckeyeNut]

Proabably not the right place for it, but could Bullock take on Daines in 2020?

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely D, 55-41 Bullock.

[Fitzgerald]

Proabably not the right place for it, but could Bullock take on Daines in 2020?

Very, very possible, and given Bullock's colossal popularity, it just might be the end of Steve the Snake if it happens and the national atmosphere is good. If Zinke doesn't make it out of the Republican implosion this year, expect a MT-DEM renaissance.

[Del Tachi]

Bullock is too popular for this race to be anything other than Safe D.  He'll beat Gianforte >10 pts

[Fitzgerald]

Bullock's popularity is exaggerated (and he wouldn't beat Daines in 2020), but he will win this year. Lean D, Bullock 52-44.

@Fitzgerald: Lol, in what way was 2012 a good year for MT Republicans?

In the way that I have a short memory, apparently. I thought they made their 2010 gains in 2012. Never mind me. Still, I'd hardly qualify a 61% approval rating as "exaggerated".

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Lean D
Steve Bullock 55-42-3

[Figueira]

Bullock's popularity is exaggerated (and he wouldn't beat Daines in 2020), but he will win this year. Lean D, Bullock 52-44.

@Fitzgerald: Lol, in what way was 2012 a good year for MT Republicans?

Do you live in Montana?

[Maxwell]

Likely D, Bullock. GOP totally bombed recruitment.

[windjammer]

There is no poll at all, but if I have to guess: Lean Dem Bullock by 8

[heatcharger]

I should also clarify that I meant that Bullock will probably not beat Daines. Daines will definitely face a tough challenge, unlike other freshmen class members of the current Senate like Rounds, Capito and Cotton. He could definitely lose.

I'm relatively positive Tillis and Gardner will be endangered, and I wouldn't be surprised if Sullivan gets a rematch from Begich. The only person Rounds could lose to is Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, which is unlikely. Although I have to be honest, the idea of SD pulling a 2012 ND isn't one of the most implausible scenarios out there.

Every other freshmen is probably safe, unless Iowa suddenly decides to turn on Joni Ernst.

[windjammer]

In 2020, democrats will likely make a play for:
-Colorado
-Iowa
-Maine
-Montana
-Mississippi
-Georgia
-North Carolina

In the end, they will likely only win Colorado and North Carolina.

[heatcharger]

In 2020, democrats will likely make a play for:
-Colorado
-Iowa
-Maine
-Montana
-Mississippi
-Georgia
-North Carolina

In the end, they will likely only win Colorado and North Carolina.

Assuming Collins retires, why wouldn't they be able to pickup Maine? Dems should put Alaska in play as well.

[windjammer]

In 2020, democrats will likely make a play for:
-Colorado
-Iowa
-Maine
-Montana
-Mississippi
-Georgia
-North Carolina

In the end, they will likely only win Colorado and North Carolina.

Assuming Collins retires, why wouldn't they be able to pickup Maine? Dems should put Alaska in play as well.

Because I don't think she's going to retire, but even she's not retiring, they should make a play for this seat (and lose lol)

[Xing]

In light of the recent poll, I'm changing my prediction to Lean D, Bullock 50-46.

[Kingpoleon]

TNVolunteer, you don't think Walt Schweitzer will be on the ticket in 2020?

If I were to guess I'd say:
Denise Juneau or Amanda Curtis/Walt Schweitzer 50% to Timothy Fox/Matthew Rosendale 45%

Jon Sonju would be a very strong candidate. I wish the Republicans would nominate him over Fox, but I can't see it happening.

[Breton Racer]

Likely D

Bullock 54%-42%