ME-02: Poliquin in denial

[MAINEiac4434]

Bruce Poliquin has requested a recount.

What does he possibly hope to gain from this? Or is he still in the bargaining stage?

IDK Poliquin could lose among first preferences now. Maybe he's a masochist.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

MAINEiac, what kind of shape do you think Golden is in to become #entrenched or whatever? Do you think he can be reasonably confident about the seat now that he's won it or do you think he'll run into problems with Trump (or future Trump-like candidates) at the top of the ballot?

[MAINEiac4434]

MAINEiac, what kind of shape do you think Golden is in to become #entrenched or whatever? Do you think he can be reasonably confident about the seat now that he's won it or do you think he'll run into problems with Trump (or future Trump-like candidates) at the top of the ballot?

I'm not sure; this district loves its incumbents. Poliquin is the first incumbent in 100 years to lose reelection; every other member from this district since has either died in office or retired. It's also clearly still Democratic ancestrally, and swung back towards the Democrats in the Gov race (though Moody still won the 2nd, he greatly underperformed LePage).

But, it's sprinting right. It'll only be so long until the Democrats are extinct here, unless we gerrymander more of the midcoast into the district (which would result in Chellie Pingree's residence of North Haven ending up in the 2nd district), and it would make the 1st more vulnerable.

My hope is Golden stays long enough to be elected to the Senate when Angus retires (or dies, dude had prostate cancer) in 2024. I don't think he runs against Collins in 2020.

Of course, I could be wrong, and Golden could start winning by 1998 Baldacci margins. But I doubt it.

[MAINEiac4434]

Go off king

https://twitter.com/golden4congress/status/1067199510894530560

[MAINEiac4434]

The best part about this whole thing is Maine journos are no longer pretending to be unbiased:

https://twitter.com/gregkesich/status/1067220193875804160

[lfromnj]

Obviously Bruce is a sore loser but no one thought gillum was a sore loser for a recount at 50k margin.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Obviously Bruce is a sore loser but no one thought gillum was a sore loser for a recount at 50k margin.

I think he is.

[MAINEiac4434]

Obviously Bruce is a sore loser but no one thought gillum was a sore loser for a recount at 50k margin.

50,000 votes is one tenth of one percent in a state of 21 million people with many voting irregularities, along with a history of voting irregularities.

3,000 votes is a full percentage point in a district with 600,000 people with the results literally tabulated on Facebook Live with thousands of people watching.

[Xing]

Obviously Bruce is a sore loser but no one thought gillum was a sore loser for a recount at 50k margin.

Except half of Atlas Republicans. And machine recounts in Florida are automatic if the margin is within .5%, so it's not like Gillum specifically requested and paid for a recount.

[henster]

Golden just needs to make it through 2020, I think ME-2 can be shored up in redistricting more in a way to make it at least favorable to Dems.

[lfromnj]

Golden just needs to make it through 2020, I think ME-2 can be shored up in redistricting more in a way to make it at least favorable to Dems.

pretty sure redistricting in maine is 2/3 of legislature.
I don't see dems getting that

[IceSpear]

I like how he throws shade by saying "Congressman-elect Jared Golden's statement", lol.

[Politician]

How badly do you think St. Clair would have done if he won the primary?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

How badly do you think St. Clair would have done if he won the primary?

About the same as 2016

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Golden just needs to make it through 2020, I think ME-2 can be shored up in redistricting more in a way to make it at least favorable to Dems.

pretty sure redistricting in maine is 2/3 of legislature.
I don't see dems getting that

ME-02 is gerrymandered to unfairly favor Republicans as is. Any Congressional Map not drawn with specific pro-Republican intent in its design would make ME-02 more Democratic, possibly substantially so.

I have calculated what the results would be in a hypothetical fair Maine Congressional Map for ME-02, and Trump would only win ME-02 in 2016 by 6 points in said fair map instead of the 11 points he won it by in the actual map.

All Democrats need to do to make this District more Democratic after the next redistricting is to prevent Republicans from taking full control over the process, which is something that they already have as a locked in accomplishment.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

(which would result in Chellie Pingree's residence of North Haven ending up in the 2nd district)

The people of Maine do not care about this type of thing.

Republican Olympia Snowe was able to consistently win the ME-02 House seat in the early 1990s and the 1980s while she was living in ME-01 the entire time, always by landslide margins and in spite of the District often being much more Democratic in other levels.

[MAINEiac4434]

How badly do you think St. Clair would have done if he won the primary?

We wouldn’t need RCV to know who won. Something similar to Cain’s margin in 2016.

[MAINEiac4434]

(which would result in Chellie Pingree's residence of North Haven ending up in the 2nd district)

The people of Maine do not care about this type of thing.

Republican Olympia Snowe was able to consistently win the ME-02 House seat in the early 1990s and the 1980s while she was living in ME-01 the entire time, always by landslide margins and in spite of the District often being much more Democratic in other levels.

Maine is a lot more divided now than it was then. There’s a lot more “people from there don’t understand those of us from here” than there was even 10 years ago, let alone 30.

[MAINEiac4434]

Poliquin now calling for a new election, further embarrasses himself with each passing day.]

[MAINEiac4434]

lol

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1067846802915897344

[Virginiá]

lol

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1067846802915897344

How desperate is this guy?

Also, you'd think that the last thing any Republican would want is to have to compete in a special election for the House, given how badly that has been going for them, even in districts far more conservative than ME-02.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

lol

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1067846802915897344

Were those votes ever Counted towards the overall total?

[MAINEiac4434]

lol

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1067846802915897344

Were those votes ever Counted towards the overall total?

Their first choice was. Their votes didn't transfer.

[MAINEiac4434]

The Hill taking no prisoners

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1067892154624823296

[IceSpear]

lol

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1067846802915897344

How desperate is this guy?

Also, you'd think that the last thing any Republican would want is to have to compete in a special election for the House, given how badly that has been going for them, even in districts far more conservative than ME-02.

Even if his chance in the special was 10% or whatever, that's a lot better than the 0% chance he currently has.