Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is getting very desperate in the final hours before the state election here:

Without any major theme for them to attack, they now focus on "pot smokers" in other parties and how "bad" that is ...

During podium discussions, the NEOS-frontrunner announced that he once smoked pot with this children, but "didn't like it" - so he stopped and encouraged them to do the same. A Green politician said the same. (The NEOS frontrunner actually won the mock vote at the podium discussion then with some 48%, because many students were present).

Now, FPÖ-leader Marlene Svazek said that these parties should get rid of their "pot-smoking politicians, because they are a bad example for kids and it's extremely unhealthy".

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-Svazek-aetzt-gegen-Kiff-Politiker/330756994

She of course forgot that FPÖ-leader Strache also announced about a decade ago that he smoked pot as a youngster once:

http://www.vienna.at/strache-ich-habe-cannabis-probiert/news-20080919-09370041

I think the FPÖ is heading for a debacle on Sunday (maybe 13-16%), which would be below their 2013 results. That would be the first election loss for the FPÖ in many years.

[Tender Branson]

Infographics about the Salzburg state election tomorrow:

(right-click for big version)

[Tender Branson]

I decided to create a fancy Wikipedia page for the election tomorrow ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salzburg_state_election,_2018

[DavidB.]

How did you vote, Tender? SPÖ again?

[Tender Branson]

How did you vote, Tender? SPÖ again?

I already voted 2-3 weeks ago via postal ballot, as usual.

Considering that tomorrow is a very nice day with temps of 30°C, I will go mountainbiking rather than voting.

And yes, I voted SPÖ (Greens in 2013, because of their good performance during the investment scandal back then and SPÖVP was unvoteable). As you may know, I like some policies of ÖVP and FPÖ on deporting criminal (Muslim) foreigners, but I agree more with the SPÖ on virtually all other issues that matter. Plus, the state FPÖ is a joke.

[TheSaint250]

I decided to create a fancy Wikipedia page for the election tomorrow ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salzburg_state_election,_2018

Thank you! We need more of Austrian state election pages.

[Tender Branson]

I decided to create a fancy Wikipedia page for the election tomorrow ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salzburg_state_election,_2018

Thank you! We need more of Austrian state election pages.

You are welcome. I have meanwhile updated my Wiki article with more information.

[Tender Branson]

Ex-Chancellor Christian Kern (SPÖ) was campaigning on the street today together with Walter Steidl, the Salzburg-SPÖ leader.



Suddenly, they bumped into NEOS-leader Sepp Schellhorn - who was also campaigning.

Kern didn't wait long and asked if he'd vote for the SPÖ tomorrow ...

[Tender Branson]

An explanation for English-speakers of our state election results website:

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/ltw/index2018.html

"Hochrechnung" means projection (this will be updated after 4pm as more precincts come in)

"Ergebnisse" are the actual results by town, district and state

"Wahlstatus" shows eligible voters, postal ballot requests and which time results came in

"Ranglisten" is a sortable chart of turnout, invalid votes and party shares for each town

"Kartogramme" are ... well ... maps.

"Vorzugsstimmen" are preference votes for candidates, who could move up their party list

"Wahlen seit 1945" are election results since 1945

"Download" = get all results in Excel-format and as a PDF-brochure once all is counted

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now opening for the Salzburg state election and remember, they close at 4pm already (10am Eastern).

A first projection is out at 4:15pm, but this is based on very few counted precincts - so it still has a MoE of +/2% for each party.

A first solid projection is available at ~5pm.

[Tender Branson]

So, back from mountainbiking and barbecue ...

Polls close in 1 hour.

[Tender Branson]

Pictures of frontrunners voting:

Gov. Wilfried Haslauer (ÖVP)



Walter Steidl (SPÖ)



Marlene Svazek (FPÖ)



Astrid Rössler (Greens)



Sepp Schellhorn (NEOS)



Hans Mayr (MAYR, = ex-Team Stronach)

[Tender Branson]

Rather shocking first trend (very little counted so far, so the MoE is still +/- 3.8%):

[Tender Branson]

The first trend projection by the state election website:

39.2% ÖVP
19.7% SPÖ
18.9% FPÖ
  8.1% Greens
  7.0% NEOS
  5.1% FPS
  1.9% Others

MoE here is +/- 1.7% and based on 19% of the precincts counted (mostly small towns).

Crazy how the Left (SPÖ+Greens) got destroyed ...

ÖVP + 11% (!!!)

FPÖ+FPS combined with 24% !!! (+7%)

That's quite a signal in favour of the federal ÖVP-FPÖ government as well.

[Tender Branson]

Damn, the FPS is doing really well even outside the Pinzgau (which is their base).

I would have never assumed that they had a chance to enter state parliament.

And this even with the FPÖ much stronger than I projected.

[Tender Branson]

Results of Zell am See:

33% ÖVP (+8%)
25% SPÖ (-4%)
16% FPÖ (-4%)
10% FPS (+10%)
  8% NEOS (+8%)
  7% Greens (-9%)
  1% Others (-9%)

[Tender Branson]

Well, with the latest projection the FPS dropped to 4.7% statewide, which is below the 5% threshold and the SPÖ has overtaken the FPÖ (19.9 vs. 18.6%)

[DavidB.]

Even better than I expected. G-d I love this country.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ+FPS gain an average of 6-7% in every district, except in the Pinzgau (Zell am See) - where the FPÖ actually loses but the FPS makes up for it.

This result is a huge confirmation from voters for Gov. Haslauer (ÖVP), but also for Kurz and Strache.

[Tender Branson]

I have no clue why the SPÖ did so poorly today ...

The Greens, well ... I always expected them to drop to below 10%.

But the SPÖ ?

They had really good posters and a good campaign, while the FPÖ campaign sucked (Karl Schnell and the FPS had in fact good posters).

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ has not won a single city yet, not even Lend (which was a big SPÖ-stronghold due to the aluminium factory there).

[Tender Branson]

According to the latest projection:

ÖVP: +9%
FPÖ: +2%
FPS: +4%

NEOS: +7%

SPÖ: -4%
Greens: -11%

Others: -7%

[Tender Branson]

Only the capital, Salzburg-City, has yet to report their results.

I need to wait for the voter-stream analysis, but either many SPÖ-voters stayed home today, or some of them moved to the FPÖ and FPS or a combination of these factors.

It's also likely that many former Green voters voted for the ÖVP, while many former Team Stronach voters voted for FPÖ and FPS.

I don't see any evidence that former Green surge voters from 2013 voted for the SPÖ today, not even in the urban areas.

[Tender Branson]

Possible coalitions after today:

* ÖVP-FPÖ (coalition of winners, Problem: Gov. Haslauer is personally opposed to a coalition with the FPÖ, but could be mildly pressured into it by Kurz & Strache)

* ÖVP-SPÖ (rather unlikely, only a last-resort option for Gov. Haslauer)

* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS (the ÖVP didn't rule it out and with the Greens significantly weakened and NEOS pretty small in the coalition, it could be possible)

[Tender Branson]

Kurz & Strache are very happy with the results.

Even factoring in the "lost votes" that were cast for the FPS (as Strache called it), FPÖ+FPS reached 23.5%, which is the best result for the combined Freedom Party so far this year in a state election and even better than in Carinthia.

The 23.5% are 4% better than the previous record in 1999 under Jörg Haider. I would have never imagined a result like this, following all the f**kups of the FPÖ recently on the smoking-ban etc.