Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/jonathankappler/status/1042814868024438784

Coleman's internals are believable with those numbers.

[pbrower2a]

California, Vox Populi:

approval 34, disapproval 64

https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/CA-Statewide-Survey-Results-9.19.18.pdf

Enough said.

Iowa has a poll out by Selzer for the Des Moines Register. Nothing said about the Presidency, but the incumbent Republican Governor is underwater. Selzer is excellent, and caught the Trump surge/Clinton collapse in Iowa that many thought was an outlier in 2016. 

https://twitter.com/jonathankappler/status/1042814868024438784

First poll of North Carolina in a long time. Civitas is a right-leaning pollster, so this might be an understatement of how badly Trump is doing.

Pennsylvania: Muhlenberg College, Sep. 13-19, 404 likely voters

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

GCB: D 50, R 39

Pennsylvania looks to be off the table.

Another Texas poll, very similar to the Vox Populi result: PPP, Sep. 19-20, 613 registered voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

This changes nothing, but it does confirm other polls that suggest that Trump is at risk of losing Texas. Texas is still the most likely state that he won by less than 10% that he could win.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, Sep. 16-19, 900 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

[JA]

NBC/WSJ, Sep. 16-19, 900 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

I won’t feel any satisfaction until that “strongly disapprove” number cracks 50% and stays there.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1043888397679386624

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1043888397679386624

They were 45/53 last month.

[IceSpear]

Lol at everyone who thought the Manafort/Cohen bounce would be permanent. Lucy pulls away the football yet again.

[BudgieForce]

Lol at everyone who thought the Manafort/Cohen bounce would be permanent. Lucy pulls away the football yet again.

I'm not sure what your going on about. Neither poll we got today showed any movement from the prior month. If the pollsters that did show substantial movement(Quinnipiac, ABC and CNN) revert back, then you'd have a point.

Edit: It should be noted, both Fox News and the WSJ have been two of the most stable polling firms in 2018. Neither has showed movement one way or the other in 5 months.

[IceSpear]

Lol at everyone who thought the Manafort/Cohen bounce would be permanent. Lucy pulls away the football yet again.

I'm not sure what your going on about. Neither poll we got today showed any movement from the prior month. If the pollsters that did show substantial movement(Quinnipiac, ABC and CNN) revert back, then you'd have a point.

Edit: It should be noted, both Fox News and the WSJ have been two of the most stable polling firms in 2018. Neither has showed movement one way or the other in 5 months.

They didn't show any movement because the last time those polls were conducted was before the Manafort/Cohen stuff. Unless you're seriously implying that they both would've shown the same results if they were conducted 2 weeks ago instead.

[BudgieForce]

Lol at everyone who thought the Manafort/Cohen bounce would be permanent. Lucy pulls away the football yet again.

I'm not sure what your going on about. Neither poll we got today showed any movement from the prior month. If the pollsters that did show substantial movement(Quinnipiac, ABC and CNN) revert back, then you'd have a point.

Edit: It should be noted, both Fox News and the WSJ have been two of the most stable polling firms in 2018. Neither has showed movement one way or the other in 5 months.

They didn't show any movement because the last time those polls were conducted was before the Manafort/Cohen stuff. Unless you're seriously implying that they both would've shown the same results if they were conducted 2 weeks ago instead.

Quite possibly. Hence why we should wait for CNN, Quinnipiac, ABC, etc..., to show a reversion before you start "lol"ing at other posters.

[IceSpear]

Lol at everyone who thought the Manafort/Cohen bounce would be permanent. Lucy pulls away the football yet again.

I'm not sure what your going on about. Neither poll we got today showed any movement from the prior month. If the pollsters that did show substantial movement(Quinnipiac, ABC and CNN) revert back, then you'd have a point.

Edit: It should be noted, both Fox News and the WSJ have been two of the most stable polling firms in 2018. Neither has showed movement one way or the other in 5 months.

They didn't show any movement because the last time those polls were conducted was before the Manafort/Cohen stuff. Unless you're seriously implying that they both would've shown the same results if they were conducted 2 weeks ago instead.

Quite possibly. Hence why we should wait for CNN, Quinnipiac, ABC, etc..., to show a reversion before you start "lol"ing at other posters.

Not sure if you're being deliberately obtuse or kidding yourself, but okay. Feel free to ignore his approval spiking in all the aggregates I guess. You know, just like the other 20+ times this pattern has repeated itself yet people here still fall for it every time:

1) Trump does a no no
2) Approval drops
3) Approval goes back up a few weeks later when people forget/stop caring
4) Rinse and repeat

It boggles my mind people still can't see this same exact thing happening over and over. Just wishful thinking clouding reasonable judgment I guess.

[BudgieForce]

Lol at everyone who thought the Manafort/Cohen bounce would be permanent. Lucy pulls away the football yet again.

I'm not sure what your going on about. Neither poll we got today showed any movement from the prior month. If the pollsters that did show substantial movement(Quinnipiac, ABC and CNN) revert back, then you'd have a point.

Edit: It should be noted, both Fox News and the WSJ have been two of the most stable polling firms in 2018. Neither has showed movement one way or the other in 5 months.

They didn't show any movement because the last time those polls were conducted was before the Manafort/Cohen stuff. Unless you're seriously implying that they both would've shown the same results if they were conducted 2 weeks ago instead.

Quite possibly. Hence why we should wait for CNN, Quinnipiac, ABC, etc..., to show a reversion before you start "lol"ing at other posters.

Not sure if you're being deliberately obtuse or kidding yourself, but okay. Feel free to ignore his approval spiking in all the aggregates I guess. You know, just like the other 20+ times this pattern has repeated itself yet people here still fall for it every time:

1) Trump does a no no
2) Approval drops
3) Approval goes back up a few weeks later when people forget/stop caring
4) Rinse and repeat

It boggles my mind people still can't see this same exact thing happening over and over. Just wishful thinking clouding reasonable judgment I guess.

*sigh*

I made my point. You can ignore it if you like.

I took more offence with you patronizing tone which seems to be in abundance these days.

[IceSpear]

Lol at everyone who thought the Manafort/Cohen bounce would be permanent. Lucy pulls away the football yet again.

I'm not sure what your going on about. Neither poll we got today showed any movement from the prior month. If the pollsters that did show substantial movement(Quinnipiac, ABC and CNN) revert back, then you'd have a point.

Edit: It should be noted, both Fox News and the WSJ have been two of the most stable polling firms in 2018. Neither has showed movement one way or the other in 5 months.

They didn't show any movement because the last time those polls were conducted was before the Manafort/Cohen stuff. Unless you're seriously implying that they both would've shown the same results if they were conducted 2 weeks ago instead.

Quite possibly. Hence why we should wait for CNN, Quinnipiac, ABC, etc..., to show a reversion before you start "lol"ing at other posters.

Not sure if you're being deliberately obtuse or kidding yourself, but okay. Feel free to ignore his approval spiking in all the aggregates I guess. You know, just like the other 20+ times this pattern has repeated itself yet people here still fall for it every time:

1) Trump does a no no
2) Approval drops
3) Approval goes back up a few weeks later when people forget/stop caring
4) Rinse and repeat

It boggles my mind people still can't see this same exact thing happening over and over. Just wishful thinking clouding reasonable judgment I guess.

*sigh*

I made my point. You can ignore it if you like.

I took more offence with you patronizing tone which seems to be in abundance these days.

Your point is logically sound only if you accept the ridiculous assumption that these two high quality pollsters would've found zero movement immediately after Manafort/Cohen when literally every single pollster did, even Rasmussen!

Anyway, #FeeltheMath.

[BudgieForce]

I think that says more about how bouncy the RCP aggregate is and how the 538 aggregate allows itself to be bombarded with 8 Trump friendly YouGov polls in one day.

Regardless, I dont doubt for one second the WSJ poll and the Fox News poll may have shown no movement during the Manarfot drop. They have been stable before while other pollsters have shown drops.

Also kind of ironic your telling me to #feelthemath seeing as how Sinema is up 5 in the atlas aggregate yet you just got done telling everybody how terrible of a candidate she is based off your own emotions.

[IceSpear]

I think that says more about how bouncy the RCP aggregate is and how the 538 aggregate allows itself to be bombarded with 8 Trump friendly YouGov polls in one day.

Regardless, I dont doubt for one second the WSJ poll and the Fox News poll may have shown no movement during the Manarfot drop. They have been stable before while other pollsters have shown drops.

Also kind of ironic your telling me to #feelthemath seeing as how Sinema is up 5 in the atlas aggregate yet you just got done telling everybody how terrible of a candidate she is based off your own emotions.

It's "bouncy" because the polls bounce up and down whenever Trump does something bad. See bullet points #1 through #4 in post #642. Again, this same pattern has happened countless times now. How many times are you going to fall for it?

And what does being a good or bad candidate have to do with polling results? You could be the worst candidate ever running against the best candidate ever in a heavily partisan district and still win in a landslide if you were the "correct" party.

[BudgieForce]

I think that says more about how bouncy the RCP aggregate is and how the 538 aggregate allows itself to be bombarded with 8 Trump friendly YouGov polls in one day.

Regardless, I dont doubt for one second the WSJ poll and the Fox News poll may have shown no movement during the Manarfot drop. They have been stable before while other pollsters have shown drops.

Also kind of ironic your telling me to #feelthemath seeing as how Sinema is up 5 in the atlas aggregate yet you just got done telling everybody how terrible of a candidate she is based off your own emotions.

It's "bouncy" because the polls bounce up and down whenever Trump does something bad. See bullet points #1 through #4 in post #642. Again, this same pattern has happened countless times now. How many times are you going to fall for it?

And what does being a good or bad candidate have to do with polling results? You could be the worst candidate ever running against the best candidate ever in a heavily partisan district and still win in a landslide if you were the "correct" party.

I'm not falling for anything. All I said was I wanted to see if the other live caller polls(the ones that showed a drop) show any sort of recovery. Because right now we have two live caller polls(both of which have been shockingly stable this year) and a bunch of online polls that have been Trump friendly. I think your gloating was premature and we should wait for a clearer picture.

Edit: Your gonna tell me we have a clear picture, I'm gonna disagree and this will continue to go in a circle. So lets just call this back and forth over after your rebuttal.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: Emerson, Sep. 19-21, 650 registered voters

Approve 42
Disapprove 49

[john cage bubblegum]

Gallup weekly tracker:

Approve - 40% (+2)
Disapprove - 56% (no change)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Geez.

[Dr. Arch]

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Geez.

Looks like Iowa has had it.

[CookieDamage]

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Geez.

Looks like Iowa has had it.

Officially!

[BlueSwan]

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Oooohh, this one is nice and it is Selzer, not Gravis or ARG.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: NBC/Marist, Sep. 16-20, 950 adults including 763 RV and 564 LV (change from June)

Among adults:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+3)

Among RV:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (+3)

Among LV (not done in June):

Approve 44
Disapprove 51

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: Quinnipiac, Sep. 20-24, 888 likely voters

Approve 44
Disapprove 54

In the Senate race, Nelson (D) leads 53-46.