PA 13

[Keystone Phil]

I also think O'Brien may get a challenger as well.

Ha. Good luck with that one. O'Brien is adored around here. Even the Dems like him. If they were smart, they wouldn't waste their time running someone. They haven't  had a candidate against him since 2000 I believe...and even then he won in a landslide. This seat is safe for the Republicans with O'Brien.

But if you really think he'll have a Democratic opponent, who will it be? Think he, or she, will be able to break 30%?

[Keystone Phil]

I also think O'Brien may get a challenger as well.

They haven't  had a candidate against him since 2000 I believe

I'm sorry. The last time they had a candidate run against him was in 1998.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think there will be one in 2006.  Thing with Boyle and many Dems is they don't have the $$$.  Kenney better be on his toes next time because Fumo is targeting the Republican seats in the Northeast and will give $$$.  Boyle only got $50,000 and look at how well he did considering.  Granted O'Brien is safe, but there will likely be a race. 

[Keystone Phil]

I think there will be one in 2006.  Thing with Boyle and many Dems is they don't have the $$$.  Kenney better be on his toes next time because Fumo is targeting the Republican seats in the Northeast and will give $$$.  Boyle only got $50,000 and look at how well he did considering.  Granted O'Brien is safe, but there will likely be a race. 

Incredibly foolish move if the Dems put up a candidate but I really don't think they will. They haven't had someone run since '98. There's a very good reason for that. Dems in the 169th love him and their leaders in Harrisburg work well with him. If it is a candidate challenging O'Brien, I can't see the Dem getting more than 25%.

[Keystone Phil]

How about this, IrishDem: Bruce Castor 2006. Could you imagine? There has been some talk about it. He's popular enough to take Montco and well known in NE Philly (just turn on the news and he's on atleast once a week). Castor vs. Schwartz - now there's one scenario were a GOP pickup is likely. What's your take?

The funny thing about these Congressional races is that we will know who's running around June or July '05. Then the PA 13 debate will start to pick up again

[TeePee4Prez]

How about this, IrishDem: Bruce Castor 2006. Could you imagine? There has been some talk about it. He's popular enough to take Montco and well known in NE Philly (just turn on the news and he's on atleast once a week). Castor vs. Schwartz - now there's one scenario were a GOP pickup is likely. What's your take?

The funny thing about these Congressional races is that we will know who's running around June or July '05. Then the PA 13 debate will start to pick up again

Castor would scare me a bit, but I think Allyson would hold.  I mean Allyson won by 15 points over a moderate Republican.  Yes, I know Castor's popular in Montco and I heard the talk on PoliticsPA, but I think he may stick with the AG field or go into private practice.  I do not know much about his liberalism/conservatism.  If he comes across as too anti-labor = BYE BYE NE Philly, too anti-choice= BYE BYE Montco.  Too early to tell at this point. 

[Keystone Phil]

How about this, IrishDem: Bruce Castor 2006. Could you imagine? There has been some talk about it. He's popular enough to take Montco and well known in NE Philly (just turn on the news and he's on atleast once a week). Castor vs. Schwartz - now there's one scenario were a GOP pickup is likely. What's your take?

The funny thing about these Congressional races is that we will know who's running around June or July '05. Then the PA 13 debate will start to pick up again

Castor would scare me a bit, but I think Allyson would hold.  I mean Allyson won by 15 points over a moderate Republican.  Yes, I know Castor's popular in Montco and I heard the talk on PoliticsPA, but I think he may stick with the AG field or go into private practice.  I do not know much about his liberalism/conservatism.  If he comes across as too anti-labor = BYE BYE NE Philly, too anti-choice= BYE BYE Montco.  Too early to tell at this point. 

He is a conservative and Pro Life but that hasn't hurt him in Montco. He always wins in a landslide out there. If he runs and wins the GOP primary, he'd be a very serious challenger and a pickup would be very likely.

As for him staying in the DA field or going into private practice, I'd have to disagree. He has demonstrated that he wants to go further in politics. A run for Congress is more likely than him going into private practice in my opinion.

[TeePee4Prez]

For some reason, people love conservatives in the DA position even if they are liberal.  I don't think his success as a DA would translate to Congress.  His conservative pro-life positions woud hurt him for Congress plus Schwartz would still win NE Philly by 20+ points.  I still forsee a Schwartz victory in both parts of PA-13 though Castor would cut Schwartz's Montco lead down to 2-3.  The Philly unions flattened Brown even moreso than I expected and would have the same likelyhood in doing so for Schwartz against Castor.  I thought the Section 8 issue would give Brown more weight.  What would Castor run on in NE Philly? 

[Keystone Phil]

For some reason, people love conservatives in the DA position even if they are liberal.  I don't think his success as a DA would translate to Congress.  His conservative pro-life positions woud hurt him for Congress plus Schwartz would still win NE Philly by 20+ points.  I still forsee a Schwartz victory in both parts of PA-13 though Castor would cut Schwartz's Montco lead down to 2-3.  The Philly unions flattened Brown even moreso than I expected and would have the same likelyhood in doing so for Schwartz against Castor.  I thought the Section 8 issue would give Brown more weight.  What would Castor run on in NE Philly? 

I'm not sure what Castor would run on. I would hope that he'd run on the Section 8 reform issue because, as I have stated before, Schwartz won't dedicate a second of her time in Congress to reforming the system. It really is ashame.

If there was a Castor - Schwartz race, there would be no doubt in my mind Castor would take Montco and probably by about 6-10 points. He is a very popular figure. NE Philly would a complete tossup. If this situation happens, we'll be looking at a very, very interesting General election.

[TeePee4Prez]

Keystone Phil:

Some women on the left can be a little nuts about the
feminism stuff.  Bear with her.  I think she just wants to be heard.

GirlGoneWild:

I too am pro-choice, but I'm not a nutcase about it.  In fact, it's maybe a #10 priority at best when I'm voting.  I know a lot of pro-life people that should be Democrats and sometimes I hate to say it people like you turn them off to the party.

[Keystone Phil]

Keystone Phil:

Some women on the left can be a little nuts about the
feminism stuff.  Bear with her.  I think she just wants to be heard.

I'm not bearing with anything. Let her have her opinions. I have no problem disagreeing and debating with her about them. What I won't bear is the cursing and other trollish remarks that only hurt the forum. She can have her voice heard in a civil way. Anything else won't be tolerated. Now can we please take any further conversation on this issue to another thread. This should be for PA 13/other political issues in the state/SE PA.

[CelticBhoy11]

Does it really matter if either Brown or Schwartz won the seat?  How much could they possibily care about the district they represent?  Those votes located in Philadelphia are seen just as that, a voting block.  Neither canidate cares about the issues that effect Philadelphians, and if you believe otherwise your very hopeful.  I'm glad the lipservice that I've had to listen to over the last 6 months is over... and can't wait to see how or if we will be gerrymandered into voting blocks for the next election.

[Keystone Phil]

Does it really matter if either Brown or Schwartz won the seat?  How much could they possibily care about the district they represent?  Those votes located in Philadelphia are seen just as that, a voting block.  Neither canidate cares about the issues that effect Philadelphians, and if you believe otherwise your very hopeful.  I'm glad the lipservice that I've had to listen to over the last 6 months is over... and can't wait to see how or if we will be gerrymandered into voting blocks for the next election.

Yes it does matter. Schwartz is a political opportunist. Brown is dedicated. Brown fought on the issues while Schwartz just called Brown sleazy. Read through this thread and see how we feel about each person and why they would make a better member of Congress.

It's funny...here we have two people, one Dem, one Republican, arguing points about each candidate and along comes an Independent who could care less. Welcome to the forum, CelticBhoy.

[patrick1]

Does it really matter if either Brown or Schwartz won the seat?  How much could they possibily care about the district they represent?  Those votes located in Philadelphia are seen just as that, a voting block.  Neither canidate cares about the issues that effect Philadelphians, and if you believe otherwise your very hopeful.  I'm glad the lipservice that I've had to listen to over the last 6 months is over... and can't wait to see how or if we will be gerrymandered into voting blocks for the next election.

I don't know jack about Philly but it is good to see a Glasgow Celtic fan on the board.

[AuH2O]

I think my grandmother lives in PA-13. Who knew.

[Keystone Phil]

I think my grandmother lives in PA-13. Who knew.

Do you know if she lives in the Northeast Philadelphia part of the district or the Montgomery county part?

[AuH2O]

NE Philly.

[Keystone Phil]

NE Philly.

Cool. Do you know who she supported ? 

[AuH2O]

She's 80 and Jewish. Take a stab at it

[TeePee4Prez]

She's 80 and Jewish. Take a stab at it

Probably voted Schwartz.

[Keystone Phil]

She's 80 and Jewish. Take a stab at it

Probably voted Schwartz.

80 year old Jewish woman...hmmmm...I'd say that she voted for Schwartz, too.

Hey IrishDem, I noticed your signature with the Hoeffel - 2006 sign. Really think he'll run/have a chance at the nomination?

[TeePee4Prez]

She's 80 and Jewish. Take a stab at it

Probably voted Schwartz.

80 year old Jewish woman...hmmmm...I'd say that she voted for Schwartz, too.

Hey IrishDem, I noticed your signature with the Hoeffel - 2006 sign. Really think he'll run/have a chance at the nomination?

Hoeffel. Sure.

[TeePee4Prez]

NORTH CATHOLIC ALUMNI FOR SCHWARTZ! Remember that conversation we had yesterday Keystone.   Did you think you were going to guilt trip me into that one if it were the scenario of Schwartz v. Taylor?  Now, I like Taylor, but I also like Schwartz.  In my case ideology comes before sentiment in the voting booth.  Remember that!  Even if Taylor were to run I'd still vote Schwartz and may actually campaign for her because I know the Northeast would be tougher.

N.B.  John Taylor is a popular Republican State Rep in PA-177.  He is also a graduate of my Alma Mater Northeast Catholic Class of 1973.  It is rumored he may run for Congress.

[Keystone Phil]

NORTH CATHOLIC ALUMNI FOR SCHWARTZ! Remember that conversation we had yesterday Keystone.   Did you think you were going to guilt trip me into that one if it were the scenario of Schwartz v. Taylor?  Now, I like Taylor, but I also like Schwartz.  In my case ideology comes before sentiment in the voting booth.  Remember that!  Even if Taylor were to run I'd still vote Schwartz and may actually campaign for her because I know the Northeast would be tougher.

N.B.  John Taylor is a popular Republican State Rep in PA-177.  He is also a graduate of my Alma Mater Northeast Catholic Class of 1973.  It is rumored he may run for Congress.

Guilt trip you into supporting Taylor? What? It's a rumor that he might run. I thought I'd bring that up. I don't know where this "guilt" trip idea came from. I never thought you'd support Taylor but there would be plenty of Dems with backgrounds similar to yours that would vote for Taylor. He is loved in his district. I went canvassing with him and Brown once and I saw how adored he is. His district is also over 70% Democratic. The problem if he runs - Montco. Schwartz would win out there and I'm afraid that's what would hurt the most in a Taylor-Schwartz matchup.

[TeePee4Prez]

NORTH CATHOLIC ALUMNI FOR SCHWARTZ! Remember that conversation we had yesterday Keystone.   Did you think you were going to guilt trip me into that one if it were the scenario of Schwartz v. Taylor?  Now, I like Taylor, but I also like Schwartz.  In my case ideology comes before sentiment in the voting booth.  Remember that!  Even if Taylor were to run I'd still vote Schwartz and may actually campaign for her because I know the Northeast would be tougher.

N.B.  John Taylor is a popular Republican State Rep in PA-177.  He is also a graduate of my Alma Mater Northeast Catholic Class of 1973.  It is rumored he may run for Congress.

I never thought you'd support Taylor but there would be plenty of Dems with backgrounds similar to yours that would vote for Taylor. He is loved in his district. I went canvassing with him and Brown once and I saw how adored he is. His district is also over 70% Democratic.

I know that.  He is very personable, though kind of on my sh!t list for giving an emphatic endorsement for Brown.  If he were running for State Rep. I would vote for him in most cases.