Strategic Vision: Clinton +20 in PA

[Jake]

BRTD, at which point during this cycle have we gone 42 days between races? How exactly does Obama campaign his ass off for six weeks in PA (as he has too) and then say, "nah, it doesn't matter". You don't think people will hear about "PA, PA, PA" on the tube for six weeks and look for the result, seeing that Clinton won a pretty big win in the only state up for grabs?

Sure, political junkies know that she's looking at like a 75 delegate gap at best at the end of the day, but do the folks?

[bullmoose88]

Is Pennsylvania a closed primary? It better be...

Yep

Ancedotal evidence only...

my friend's mom has switched from R to D in order to vote for Obama...

My mom plans on doing the same before the 24th.

For what its worth.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sure, political junkies know that she's looking at like a 75 delegate gap at best at the end of the day, but do the folks?

Probably not, but most of them have already voted and the superdelegates will know.

It's also something the media will have to mention, even if it's just somewhere in the second paragraph of the front page article.

[Tender Branson]

The exact numbers of this poll are:

Clinton - 56%
Obama - 38%
Undecided - 6%

So, it´s 18 - not 20 ...

[Reaganfan]

BRTD, at which point during this cycle have we gone 42 days between races? How exactly does Obama campaign his ass off for six weeks in PA (as he has too) and then say, "nah, it doesn't matter". You don't think people will hear about "PA, PA, PA" on the tube for six weeks and look for the result, seeing that Clinton won a pretty big win in the only state up for grabs?

Sure, political junkies know that she's looking at like a 75 delegate gap at best at the end of the day, but do the folks?

Exactly, my two sisters have suddenly gone crazy for Hillary...but both of them loath Obama and would almost certainly vote for McCain if Hillary loses the Democratic nod. They asked me, "I don't understand...if Hillary won Ohio and Texas...and she's gonna win Pennsylvania...how can he lead?"

Again, around my neck of the woods...McCain would have a better shot against Obama than Hillary. The older anti-Obama people are starting to talk about his lack of experience against McCain....and I bet that some of them defect to McCain if Obama is the Democratic nominee.

All things considered, Republicans might not be in all that bad of shape.

[Ogre Mage]

I would agree that 60% is Clinton's ceiling.  I think the key will be what happens in SE Pennsylvania.  This will be the one part of the state which is truly contested due to the large number of upscale liberals and African-Americans in the area.  It is Obama favored territory but the Rendell/Nutter Machine will be running for Clinton and SE Pennsylvania is their power base. 

The rest of the state is Clinton blowout territory.  She will be trying to increase turnout. 

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

I doubt PA can be downplayed given just how critical it is for Democrats in any close general election. Obama needs to work PA and if he can't win it (and given its demographics, that is unlikely) he should aim to run Clinton close as he can

Once all is done and dusted, including any 'deal' on MI and FL, if Obama wins the most pledged delegates, but Clinton the popular vote, there will be something of a 'legitimacy' issue facing superdelegates. The closer he runs Clinton in PA, the less jittery they are likely to be about his prospects come November though he should perform better than her among Independents and cross-over Republicans to offset any drift on the part of Clinton exclusives to McCain

Furthermore, if Clinton wins PA by 20 points, she gets big momentum moving forward into IN and NC

Dave

[Smash255]

So many variables at play Smash. Something like 45% of all Blacks in the state live in the city of Philadelphia. A city where every major public official is supporting Hillary and a city where they very much practice "machine" politics. What's black turnout going to be like?

Secondly, how many Independents and Republicans will switch registrations and who will they vote for? Will Rush lead his crusade for Hillary? Will Barack have enough sway to get people to realize they need to change their registrations in ten days? Are the lions share of those Southeast PA'ers even registered Democratic seeing how on the local level the Republicans still have power in Bucks, Chesco, Montco, etc?

60% is a big margin, but I wouldn't dismiss it as an impossibility.

Even with the Phily political machine and black leaders in Philly supporting Hillary I don't see it helping her much.  While not the same thing entirely Stephanie Tubbs- Jones is very popular in Cleveland and her district, very strong Clinton supporter, and Obama put up massive numbers in the district.  In regards to SE PA and registration.   Statewide the Dems have seen an increase in an enrollment by over 65,000, 21 times the GOP new enrollment.  With the largest gains in Delaware. MontCo & Chester, thats very likely to continue through the registration deadline.  The suburban Phill vote will make up a higher % of the Democratic Primary vote than they have in the past.

[elcorazon]

Clinton will win something like 55-44, I'd guess.

[Jake]

Even with the Phily political machine and black leaders in Philly supporting Hillary I don't see it helping her much.  While not the same thing entirely Stephanie Tubbs- Jones is very popular in Cleveland and her district, very strong Clinton supporter, and Obama put up massive numbers in the district.  In regards to SE PA and registration.   Statewide the Dems have seen an increase in an enrollment by over 65,000, 21 times the GOP new enrollment.  With the largest gains in Delaware. MontCo & Chester, thats very likely to continue through the registration deadline.  The suburban Phill vote will make up a higher % of the Democratic Primary vote than they have in the past.

And the mayor supported Obama.

As to enrollment increases, I posted about this in the other thread. All parties posted something like a 76,000 voter increase total; if the Democrats are actually registering indies/Republicans, the Indies and Republicans must be registering similar numbers of brand new voters, and that goes against the common sense of new registrations benefitting Democrats due to youth and first time voters.

[agcatter]

55-44 sounds about right.

[Smash255]

Even with the Phily political machine and black leaders in Philly supporting Hillary I don't see it helping her much.  While not the same thing entirely Stephanie Tubbs- Jones is very popular in Cleveland and her district, very strong Clinton supporter, and Obama put up massive numbers in the district.  In regards to SE PA and registration.   Statewide the Dems have seen an increase in an enrollment by over 65,000, 21 times the GOP new enrollment.  With the largest gains in Delaware. MontCo & Chester, thats very likely to continue through the registration deadline.  The suburban Phill vote will make up a higher % of the Democratic Primary vote than they have in the past.

And the mayor supported Obama.

As to enrollment increases, I posted about this in the other thread. All parties posted something like a 76,000 voter increase total; if the Democrats are actually registering indies/Republicans, the Indies and Republicans must be registering similar numbers of brand new voters, and that goes against the common sense of new registrations benefitting Democrats due to youth and first time voters.

Its probably a combination of the two.  If you were to suggest it was all new voters it would come out to about a 21-1 advantage in new voters for the Dems.  Younger and new voters are breaking strongly to the Dems, but not at a 21-1 ratio.

its approx 75,000  and out of the 75,000 voters added, if you were to assume the breakout was 60% Dem, 25% Ind, 15% GOP.  You would have an increase of Democrats by over 45,000.  Indy's of a little under 19,000 and Republicans by over 11,000.  That still leaves 20,000 who have recently switched to the Dems from either GOP or Indy, and a breakout of newly registered of 4-1 Dem over GOP is likely a tad high, probably closer to 5-2 or 3-1

[Jake]

So 20,000 voters will make this tidal wave of difference? When they split 50-50 in Ohio?

[Smash255]

So 20,000 voters will make this tidal wave of difference? When they split 50-50 in Ohio?

I was just using that as an example.  No way of knowing exactly how many were completley new and how many simply changed.  That number will be higher by the time the deadline is complete.  They may have split 50-50 in Ohio, but considering the largest portion of this gain occurred in SEPA, it is likely to favor Obama.  On top of that the majority of newly registered voters are very likely to favor Obama as well as the majority of those are younger voters. 

One thing to look at on who these new voters would help is where in the state they are coming from, MontCo, Delaware and Chester is where the Dems have seen their biggest gains, the increases we have seen so far is going to continue through the registration deadline and that obviously helps Obama.

Thats not to suggest that Clinton isn't the favorite, she obviously is and a very strong one at that.  However, it makes it really hard for Clinton to do better in PA than she did in Ohio. 

[bullmoose88]

So 20,000 voters will make this tidal wave of difference? When they split 50-50 in Ohio?

I was just using that as an example.  No way of knowing exactly how many were completley new and how many simply changed.  That number will be higher by the time the deadline is complete.  They may have split 50-50 in Ohio, but considering the largest portion of this gain occurred in SEPA, it is likely to favor Obama.  On top of that the majority of newly registered voters are very likely to favor Obama as well as the majority of those are younger voters. 

One thing to look at on who these new voters would help is where in the state they are coming from, MontCo, Delaware and Chester is where the Dems have seen their biggest gains, the increases we have seen so far is going to continue through the registration deadline and that obviously helps Obama.

Thats not to suggest that Clinton isn't the favorite, she obviously is and a very strong one at that.  However, it makes it really hard for Clinton to do better in PA than she did in Ohio. 

Smash,

If you read my earlier post, I provided some ancedotal evidence about people switching to vote for Obama...

I only mention it to caution you to potentially dampen the number of new democrats in SE PA...some of these people, including potentially my mom (which reminds me, I have to help her switch before the 24th), are really Obamacans.

[Smash255]

So 20,000 voters will make this tidal wave of difference? When they split 50-50 in Ohio?

I was just using that as an example.  No way of knowing exactly how many were completley new and how many simply changed.  That number will be higher by the time the deadline is complete.  They may have split 50-50 in Ohio, but considering the largest portion of this gain occurred in SEPA, it is likely to favor Obama.  On top of that the majority of newly registered voters are very likely to favor Obama as well as the majority of those are younger voters. 

One thing to look at on who these new voters would help is where in the state they are coming from, MontCo, Delaware and Chester is where the Dems have seen their biggest gains, the increases we have seen so far is going to continue through the registration deadline and that obviously helps Obama.

Thats not to suggest that Clinton isn't the favorite, she obviously is and a very strong one at that.  However, it makes it really hard for Clinton to do better in PA than she did in Ohio. 

Smash,

If you read my earlier post, I provided some ancedotal evidence about people switching to vote for Obama...

I only mention it to caution you to potentially dampen the number of new democrats in SE PA...some of these people, including potentially my mom (which reminds me, I have to help her switch before the 24th), are really Obamacans.

Granted, I'm just stating that these new Dem voters regardless if they are completley new, Republicans who finally gave up on the GOP, or Obomacans.  These new Democratic voters are likely to go towards Obama, and as a result will make it virtually impossible for Clinton to crack the 60% barrier against Obama, and make it really hard for her to really do any better in PA than she did in Ohio.  The white collar white vote in the Dem Primary is going to make up a larger % of the Dem Primary vote than it has in the past in PA and larger than it was in Ohio.

[Gustaf]

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

It will be a really interesting test of Obama's campaign's skills. Shoud they ignore Pennsylvania, lose really badly and spin it away? Or contest it and risk still losing by a large margin? It'll be interesting to see whether he can escape intact from it. They kind of botched Texas and Ohio, imo.

[bullmoose88]

So 20,000 voters will make this tidal wave of difference? When they split 50-50 in Ohio?

I was just using that as an example.  No way of knowing exactly how many were completley new and how many simply changed.  That number will be higher by the time the deadline is complete.  They may have split 50-50 in Ohio, but considering the largest portion of this gain occurred in SEPA, it is likely to favor Obama.  On top of that the majority of newly registered voters are very likely to favor Obama as well as the majority of those are younger voters. 

One thing to look at on who these new voters would help is where in the state they are coming from, MontCo, Delaware and Chester is where the Dems have seen their biggest gains, the increases we have seen so far is going to continue through the registration deadline and that obviously helps Obama.

Thats not to suggest that Clinton isn't the favorite, she obviously is and a very strong one at that.  However, it makes it really hard for Clinton to do better in PA than she did in Ohio. 

Smash,

If you read my earlier post, I provided some ancedotal evidence about people switching to vote for Obama...

I only mention it to caution you to potentially dampen the number of new democrats in SE PA...some of these people, including potentially my mom (which reminds me, I have to help her switch before the 24th), are really Obamacans.

Granted, I'm just stating that these new Dem voters regardless if they are completley new, Republicans who finally gave up on the GOP, or Obomacans.  These new Democratic voters are likely to go towards Obama, and as a result will make it virtually impossible for Clinton to crack the 60% barrier against Obama, and make it really hard for her to really do any better in PA than she did in Ohio.  The white collar white vote in the Dem Primary is going to make up a larger % of the Dem Primary vote than it has in the past in PA and larger than it was in Ohio.

Well...its official, she's switched on the state site, and mailed in her signed change to the county seat.  We're trying to convince my dad to do the same.  I think my line will be, don't worry, some one from the house will remain a Republican, me.

Funny thing, just as she sealed the envelope for the post, the Republican Party, I think National Committee, called to ask her...and she told them she's switching for this primary only because 1) she likes Barack, and 2) hates Hillary and that she'd be switching back before November, the GOP phone operator laughed and put her on speaker for the office.

[12th Doctor]

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

Solid strategy, downplaying the state that is actually going to matter in the general, in favor of those that aren't.

[Alcon]

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

Solid strategy, downplaying the state that is actually going to matter in the general, in favor of those that aren't.

I've never understood this argument.  We have two options to use as a guideline for General performance:

1. A closed Democratic primary, where Clinton leads
2. Polls specific to the General Election, where Obama performs modestly better.

Why so readily #1 over #2?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

Solid strategy, downplaying the state that is actually going to matter in the general, in favor of those that aren't.

I've never understood this argument.  We have two options to use as a guideline for General performance:

1. A closed Democratic primary, where Clinton leads
2. Polls specific to the General Election, where Obama performs modestly better.

Why so readily #1 over #2?

Because it benefits Hillary, duh. Honestly I had never even heard the "primary performance = general election performance" argument until this election, basically because it's a creation of Hillary's campaign?

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

It will be a really interesting test of Obama's campaign's skills. Shoud they ignore Pennsylvania, lose really badly and spin it away? Or contest it and risk still losing by a large margin? It'll be interesting to see whether he can escape intact from it. They kind of botched Texas and Ohio, imo.

Escape "intact"?

You act as if a loss in Pennsylvania can forever destroy his campaign. It's just one state, he still has the massive delegate lead and still will after Pennsylvania, and one loss is going to be nothing compared to what Hillary went through in February after Super Tuesday.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

PENNSYLVANIA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY -
54% Clinton
45% Obama

[12th Doctor]

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

Solid strategy, downplaying the state that is actually going to matter in the general, in favor of those that aren't.

I've never understood this argument.  We have two options to use as a guideline for General performance:

1. A closed Democratic primary, where Clinton leads
2. Polls specific to the General Election, where Obama performs modestly better.

Why so readily #1 over #2?

If you don't challenge in a state at all, people will feel "written off" which doesn't kill you right away, but it can have an effect on enthusiasm, especially when it comes to people who actually perform the ground level functions, such as volunteers and fundraisers.

[Alcon]

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

Solid strategy, downplaying the state that is actually going to matter in the general, in favor of those that aren't.

I've never understood this argument.  We have two options to use as a guideline for General performance:

1. A closed Democratic primary, where Clinton leads
2. Polls specific to the General Election, where Obama performs modestly better.

Why so readily #1 over #2?

If you don't challenge in a state at all, people will feel "written off" which doesn't kill you right away, but it can have an effect on enthusiasm, especially when it comes to people who actually perform the ground level functions, such as volunteers and fundraisers.

I doubt Obama is hurting much for organizational structure in Pennsylvania.  Is he?

[Keystone Phil]

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

Solid strategy, downplaying the state that is actually going to matter in the general, in favor of those that aren't.

I've never understood this argument.  We have two options to use as a guideline for General performance:

1. A closed Democratic primary, where Clinton leads
2. Polls specific to the General Election, where Obama performs modestly better.

Why so readily #1 over #2?

If you don't challenge in a state at all, people will feel "written off" which doesn't kill you right away, but it can have an effect on enthusiasm, especially when it comes to people who actually perform the ground level functions, such as volunteers and fundraisers.

I doubt Obama is hurting much for organizational structure in Pennsylvania.  Is he?

I haven't seen it...yet. I doubt they'll make much of an effort in my immediate area anyway. Either way, it will be nothing compared to Hillary's organization in the city.