Washington state megathread

[bgwah]

McEntee again? What is this, his fourth try?

Interesting to Freeman run again. I wonder if the Constitution Party will try anything for Governor or Senator this time?

[redcommander]

Phillip Yin has a terrible voting record: Before the 2010 General, the last election he voted in was the 2004 General.  Also, his mailing address is in Chino, California, so evidently he splits his time between more than two places.

Well hopefully Baumgartner gets the nomination then.

[Ogre Mage]

Article: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016208774_two_possible_challengers_for_c.html

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Desperation is setting in for Wilbur.  This sounds like the argument in 2010 that Martha Coakley's loss in MA was somehow a sign that Murray would lose.  Cantwell will certainly not be confused about the size of the national debt as Weprin was.

The two wouldn't be bad candidates, but yeah Cantwell isn't losing unless Obama's reelection chances start looking like Carter's. I could at least see the two breaking 40 against her. Is Larsen's district still going to be competitive? I know Koster is going to run again against him.

Baumgartner is not Christine O'Donnell level bad (a true denzien of the D-list), but it's fair to say he is a B-list candidate that would be a speed bump for Cantwell barring some drastic unforseen event.

Larsen's chances depend on the results of the restricting committee.  I doubt he will be more vulnerable because we have used this system before and incumbent protection has tended to be the result.  My hypothesis is that Reichert and Herrera will be drawn into safer districts.  The cost will be Larsen is also made safer and a Democratic-favored 10th district.

[bgwah]

Koster may not even be in the new WA-02. It doesn't look like he's in it in any of the proposed maps. The Democrats want to shove him into WA-08, while Gorton wants to give him WA-10 and Huff wants to give him WA-01.

[bgwah]

Polling firm I've never heard of says:

Gov: McKenna leads Inslee 46-39

Gay marriage: 54-35 support (!?)

Pot legalization: 46-46

Eyman's initiative: 50-31 support

Liquor privatization: 51-44 support


http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2016249660_poll19m.html

[Meeker]

Strategies 360 is one of the premier Democratic consulting firms in the state. Didn't know they did polling though.

[bgwah]

Gay marriage leading by 19 makes me seriously question the numbers.

[CultureKing]

Gay marriage leading by 19 makes me seriously question the numbers.

...and yet they give McKenna a healthy lead and Obama's numbers seem to make sense. Perhaps they phrased that question oddly to tilt it?

[Seattle]

Wow, weird results. 54% for gay marriage! That's surprising.

[bgwah]

Nickels 2013?

http://www.q13fox.com/news/kcpq-nickels-i-might-run-again-20110919,0,4639303.story

[Ogre Mage]

As the article suggests, McKenna's lead is at least partially due to the higher name recognition that comes with being in statewide office.  But I'm under no illusions that it will be a tough race.  

[Alcon]

As the article suggests, McKenna's lead is at least partially due to the higher name recognition that comes with being in statewide office.  But I'm under no illusions that it will be a tough race.  

Sketchy poll and small subsample, but the fact that Inslee leads by only 1% among those who know him, isn't good news -- unless, I guess, his former Eastern Washington constituents remember him just as well as his new ones.  If he's only leading by 1% among people who can identify the congressman in liberal WA-1, that's a bad place to be.

Also, as overjoyed as I'd be, there's no way gay marriage leads by that margin, and that's a weirdly poor result for pot considering the other findings.

[greenforest32]

Washington State Democrats endorse marijuana legalization initiative: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016249170_state_dems_back_marijuana_lega.html

It seems like there are two or three different initiatives about this in WA right now. I assume the one aimed for 2011 never picked up enough momentum? What do you all think about this one's  (I-502) chances in the legislature and/or ballot?

[Meeker]

The one the state party just endorsed is by far the most legitimate of the recent proposals; the other ones were organized by activists who just didn't really have their stuff together.

I suspect I-502 will make it to the ballot for next fall. Tough to say whether it will pass though.

[Ogre Mage]

As the article suggests, McKenna's lead is at least partially due to the higher name recognition that comes with being in statewide office.  But I'm under no illusions that it will be a tough race.  

Sketchy poll and small subsample, but the fact that Inslee leads by only 1% among those who know him, isn't good news -- unless, I guess, his former Eastern Washington constituents remember him just as well as his new ones.  If he's only leading by 1% among people who can identify the congressman in liberal WA-1, that's a bad place to be.

Also, as overjoyed as I'd be, there's no way gay marriage leads by that margin, and that's a weirdly poor result for pot considering the other findings.

One interesting piece of poll data is that Inslee leads McKenna in King County 45-39.  If that is true Inslee has a lot of work to do.  There has been some concern in Democratic circles that Inslee (who is not a statewide official and is mostly unconnected to King County) would not do as well there as he should against McKenna (who is both a statewide official and from King County).  Conventional wisdom holds that the Republican candidate needs to get at least 40% in King County to even have a chance of winning statewide, probably more like 42% to have a solid shot.  This poll suggests McKenna is close.

That said, if proper attention is paid I see no reason why Inslee could not turn out the King County base.  He's a little dull but perfectly fine on the issues.  And while voters across the state are evenly split on Obama's health care plan, I bet that is an issue Inslee can turn against McKenna in King.  The question is if McKenna can peel off enough votes in the suburban areas to counteract the tidal wave Inslee should have coming out of Seattle.

Had Dow Constantine been the nominee he would have had a lockdown on the base, but he doesn't have Inslee's connections around other parts of the state.  We'll see if that pays off.

[Ogre Mage]

Sen. Cantwell comes off as a hero in the new Ron Suskind book "Confidence Men":

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http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/09/20/cantwell-hero-in-book-on-obama-heavies/

[Meeker]

Cantwell is one of the Senate's biggest policy wonks. Good to see her doing work.

[bgwah]

McKenna leading 44-38 according to SUSA.

[Ogre Mage]

In the first poll I've seen for the WA's AG race, King 5/SUSA shows Bob Ferguson (D) leading Reagan Dunn (R) 39%-34%.

http://www.nwcn.com/home/?fId=130603548&fPath=/news/local&fDomain=10212

[Ogre Mage]

State legislator Michael Baumgartner (R-Spokane) will run for U.S. Senate against Maria Cantwell --

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/sep/30/baumgartner-run-cantwells-senate-seat/

http://publicola.com/2011/09/30/freshman-state-senator-to-run-against-cantwell/


Obviously, if this is the best the WA GOP has, Cantwell will win easily.  Baumgartner did concede that "we'd need to build a base of support over here in Seattle."  He will fail.

[RI]

Is anyone here planning on participating in the presidential caucuses, either on March 3 (Republican) or April 15 (Democratic)? I've been heavily thinking about attending the Republican one, as the Democratic caucus would be pointless except maybe to cast a protest vote, plus I've never been to a caucus before.

[bgwah]

^ They're not that interesting, and you will probably required to sign something saying you're a member of that party. Maybe you can go to both!

If you go to a GOP caucus in a college town, be prepared for lots of Ron Paul fans.

[RI]

^ They're not that interesting, and you will probably required to sign something saying you're a member of that party. Maybe you can go to both!

I don't mind. I already get a ton of spam email from both parties anyway only because I've emailed them about caucus results before.

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Don't worry; I'll troll them to the best of my ability. I can adopt a Santorum-supporting persona pretty easily.

[Meeker]

I-1125 - No, obviously
I-1163 - Yes; these people should be trained
I-1183 - No, reduces liquor availability and just makes Costco richer
SJR-8205 - I vote no because Mike Carrell sponsored the bill
SJR 8206 - My understanding is that this requires the state to put more money in the rainy day account than it currently does. The liberals oppose it because they'd prefer the money to be spent right away. I voted no.

[CultureKing]

I-1125: NO!
I-1163: Yes (Although on this one I could be persuaded to go either way)
I-1183: No (can we stop with the liquor privatization measures, PLEASE?)
SJR-8205: Yes
SJR 8206: No (honestly we shouldn't further reduce our ability to use funds)