Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Anyone want to take a guess as to turnout?  I'm thinking it'll be around 600,000, but it's hard to know.  2006 saw a turnout of 155,000; 2008 saw 986,000.

[© tweed]

Anyone want to take a guess as to turnout?  I'm thinking it'll be around 600,000, but it's hard to know.  2006 saw a turnout of 155,000; 2008 saw 986,000.

lol, a lot closer to the 155k than the 1m

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's hard to say, given that there hasn't been a seriously-contested gubernatorial primary in decades. I'll guess between 400,000 and 500,000.

Edit: Actually, I forgot the Webb/Miller primary had so few votes in it. I'm going to revise my estimate down to about 300,000.

[© tweed]

SurveyUSA stuff


McAuliffe 38
Deeds 22
Moran 22


McDonnell 44
Deeds 39

McDonnell 46
McAuliffe 39

McDonnell 46
Moran 34

[Tender Branson]

McDonnell => next VA governor.

[Rowan]

Beautiful.

[Rowan]

The polls have McDonnell getting at least 21% of the black vote against each of the candidates. Needless to say, that's not going to happen. But it brings up an interesting point, why do blacks poll for Republicans but don't end up voting for them?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Damn it.

[Eraserhead]

Looks like you guys may get to see me endorse a Rethuglican. Congrats.

[Holmes]

The polls have McDonnell getting at least 21% of the black vote against each of the candidates. Needless to say, that's not going to happen. But it brings up an interesting point, why do blacks poll for Republicans but don't end up voting for them?

Such teases.

[© tweed]

The polls have McDonnell getting at least 21% of the black vote against each of the candidates. Needless to say, that's not going to happen. But it brings up an interesting point, why do blacks poll for Republicans but don't end up voting for them?

subsample MoE

[Rowan]

The polls have McDonnell getting at least 21% of the black vote against each of the candidates. Needless to say, that's not going to happen. But it brings up an interesting point, why do blacks poll for Republicans but don't end up voting for them?

subsample MoE

It's 17% of the sample. It's not that small.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, gross.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The regional crosstabs in that poll are kind of screwed up. There is no way that "Shenandoah" (SWVA) is going to outvote any of the other regions.

[Verily]

The polls have McDonnell getting at least 21% of the black vote against each of the candidates. Needless to say, that's not going to happen. But it brings up an interesting point, why do blacks poll for Republicans but don't end up voting for them?

subsample MoE

It's 17% of the sample. It's not that small.

Yes, but the MoE is still quite large. 17% of 1,396 is only 237. The MoE on a sample size of 237 is 6.5%. And MoEs are just an estimate for medium-ish sample sizes. At small sample sizes (smaller than ~400), MoEs really should grow faster than the standard calculation, which is 100/sqrt[sample size].

[Rowan]

The polls have McDonnell getting at least 21% of the black vote against each of the candidates. Needless to say, that's not going to happen. But it brings up an interesting point, why do blacks poll for Republicans but don't end up voting for them?

subsample MoE

It's 17% of the sample. It's not that small.

Yes, but the MoE is still quite large. 17% of 1,396 is only 237. The MoE on a sample size of 237 is 6.5%. And MoEs are just an estimate for medium-ish sample sizes. At small sample sizes (smaller than ~400), MoEs really should grow faster than the standard calculation, which is 100/sqrt[sample size].

I just used a MOE calculator that is on ARG's website. Approximately 736,907 blacks voted in Virginia in 2008. A sample of 237 of them would give a MOE of 6.36%.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

[Brittain33]

The polls have McDonnell getting at least 21% of the black vote against each of the candidates. Needless to say, that's not going to happen. But it brings up an interesting point, why do blacks poll for Republicans but don't end up voting for them?

Black voters always poll more Republican and much more undecided than they should, given election results. One theory is that given past voter intimidation, some people are reluctant to talk about their preferences to an unknown caller. That said, I think Virginia's African-American community has historically been a little more Republican than elsewhere, although I think that would have changed with the overall partisan shift in NoVa.

[Rowan]

PPP:

I know SurveyUSA's Virginia Democratic primary poll this week caused a stir, and we happened to be on schedule to poll it this weekend anyway. We'll have that Tuesday.

The thing that surprised me most in the SUSA numbers was only 18% of the electorate being undecided. We've already started our poll and continue to find it more around 40%.

It's possible the difference could be explained by Survey USA using a tighter likely voter screen than us. I'm not sure there's really a 'right' or 'wrong' at this point.

We do join them in seeing movement toward Terry McAuliffe so far although I don't know if we're seeing quite the magnitude of that they did.

We'll poll the primary two more times- the week before Memorial Day and the weekend before the election. And by popular demand we'll also poll the Democratic candidates against Bob McDonnell probably two weekends before the election so that if there are any clear general election viability disparities that information will be out there.

[Rowan]

PPP

McAuliffe 30%
Moran 20%
Deeds 14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_505.pdf

[Kaine for Senate '18]

PPP

McAuliffe 30%
Moran 20%
Deeds 14%

Fuck  Fuck  Fuck  Fuck

[Lief 🗽]

Well, time to line up behind Terry.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, time to line up behind Terry.

Haha, let's see what BRTD has to say about this!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Well, time to line up behind Terry.

Over my dead body.

[Rowan]

Well, time to line up behind Terry.

Over my dead body.

PUMA!!!!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Well, time to line up behind Terry.

Over my dead body.

PUMA!!!!

I'll probably support him in the GE, but not before then.