Election 2024 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

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Harris - Trump

Compilation: Average of the most recent three polls. Slight requires that the same candidate wins all three.

		270 \|	538 \|
Harris	105
Trump	193
Ind	0
Tos	62
Non:	178

State Pick-ups

	Gain		Loss		Hold		Toss
	ST	EV	ST	EV	ST	EV	ST	EV
Harris	0	0	-4	-52	5	105	6	62
Trump	+4	+52	0	0	10	141	0	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Polls Aggregate History

Closest States - Average of Three Most Recent Polls

State	Spread	Trump	Harris	Kennedy	Und	WinD	WinR	WinI	Ties	Inc	Status
WI	Tie	46%	46%	3%	5%	0	1	0	2	D - I	Tossup
MI	R +2	45%	43%	6%	6%	1	2	0	0	D - I	Tossup
VA	D +2	41%	44%	6%	9%	2	1	0	0	D - I	Tossup
CO	D +3	48%	51%	0%	1%	1	0	0	0	D - I	Tossup
GA	R +3	46%	43%	4%	5%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Slight Republican
MN	D +3	41%	44%	6%	7%	1	0	0	0	D - I	Tossup
PA	R +3	46%	44%	3%	6%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Slight Republican
NH	D +4	42%	46%	9%	2%	2	1	0	0	D - I	Tossup
NV	R +5	47%	42%	2%	6%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Lean Republican

Predicted Pick-ups - Average of Three Most Recent Polls

State	Spread	Trump	Harris	Kennedy	Und	WinD	WinR	WinI	Ties	Inc	Status
GA	R +3	46%	43%	4%	5%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Slight Republican
PA	R +3	46%	44%	3%	6%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Slight Republican
NV	R +5	47%	42%	2%	6%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Lean Republican
AZ	R +6	47%	42%	3%	5%	0	3	0	0	D - I	Lean Republican

Most Recent State Polls

State	Date	Poll Source	Spread	DT	Dem	Ind	Other	Und	MOE	Sample	#C
MI	07-26	SoCal Research	R +3	49%	46%	0%	0%	5%	4%	500 L
WA	07-25	PPP / NPI	D +14	38%	52%	6%	2%	1%	4%	581 L	13
NH	07-25	St. Anselm College	D +6	44%	50%	3%	1%	2%	2%	2,083 R
NH	07-25	University of New Hampshire	D +6	43%	49%	4%	1%	3%	2%	2,875 L
ME	07-25	University of New Hampshire	D +8	40%	48%	4%	4%	4%	3%	1,445 L
WI	07-24	Redfield & Wilton	Tie	44%	44%	5%	2%	5%	3%	6,927 R	8
PA	07-24	Redfield & Wilton	R +4	46%	42%	5%	1%	5%	3%	6,927 R	8
NC	07-24	Redfield & Wilton	R +3	46%	43%	4%	1%	6%	3%	6,927 R	8
NV	07-24	Redfield & Wilton	R +2	45%	43%	5%	2%	5%	3%	6,927 R	8
MN	07-24	Redfield & Wilton	D +3	41%	44%	6%	2%	7%	3%	6,927 R	8
MI	07-24	Redfield & Wilton	R +3	44%	41%	7%	0%	7%	3%	6,927 R	8
MI	07-24	Glengariff Group	D +1	41%	42%	10%	1%	6%	4%	600 L
GA	07-24	Redfield & Wilton	R +5	47%	42%	3%	2%	6%	3%	6,927 R	8
FL	07-24	Redfield & Wilton	R +8	47%	39%	5%	1%	6%	3%	6,927 R	8
AZ	07-24	Redfield & Wilton	R +3	46%	43%	4%	2%	6%	3%	6,927 R	8
WI	07-23	Emerson College	Tie	45%	45%	3%	1%	6%	3%	845 R	0
PA	07-23	North Star Opinion Research	R +2	47%	45%	0%	0%	9%	4%	600 L
PA	07-23	Emerson College	R +2	46%	44%	3%	2%	5%	3%	850 R	2
MI	07-23	Emerson College	Tie	44%	44%	5%	1%	6%	3%	800 R	0
GA	07-23	Emerson College	R +3	46%	43%	4%	2%	5%	3%	800 R	0
AZ	07-23	Emerson College	R +8	48%	40%	5%	2%	6%	3%	800 R	0
GA	07-22	Landmark Communications	R +2	46%	44%	4%	1%	5%	5%	400 L	73
PA	07-21	SoCal Research	R +4	50%	46%	0%	0%	4%	4%	500 L
NH	07-21	NHJournal / Praecones Analytica	R +1	40%	39%	21%	0%	0%	4%	601 R
NY	07-19	SoCal Research	D +11	41%	52%	0%	0%	7%	4%	500 L
PA	07-18	Public Policy Polling	R +2	45%	43%	4%	2%	6%	4%	624 L
GA	07-18	Atlanta Journal Constitution	R +5	51%	46%	0%	0%	3%	3%	1,000 L
PA	07-16	Civiqs	R +2	46%	44%	5%	0%	5%	5%	536 L
PA	07-16	Insider Advantage	R +7	47%	40%	0%	8%	5%	4%	800 L
NV	07-16	Insider Advantage	R +10	50%	40%	0%	7%	3%	4%	800 L
GA	07-16	Insider Advantage	R +10	47%	37%	0%	0%	16%	4%	800 L
FL	07-16	Insider Advantage	R +10	49%	39%	0%	7%	5%	4%	800 L
AZ	07-16	Insider Advantage	R +6	48%	42%	0%	7%	3%	4%	800 L
VA	07-15	Emerson College	R +2	47%	45%	0%	0%	9%	4%	1,000 R	17
GA	07-15	Florida Atlantic University	R +11	49%	38%	6%	0%	7%	4%	549 L
WA	07-13	Survey USA	D +15	36%	51%	0%	0%	13%	5%	708 L
VA	07-13	Florida Atlantic University	D +5	38%	43%	10%	0%	9%	5%	544 L
VA	07-12	NYT / Siena	D +4	39%	43%	7%	1%	10%	4%	661 L
PA	07-12	Public Policy Polling	R +6	51%	45%	0%	0%	5%	4%	537 L
MI	07-12	Public Policy Polling	R +2	48%	46%	0%	0%	6%	4%	568 L
WI	07-11	Public Policy Polling	R +1	49%	48%	0%	0%	3%	4%	548 L
VA	07-11	SoCal Research	Tie	47%	47%	0%	0%	6%	2%	1,000 L
PA	07-11	NYT / Siena	R +1	43%	42%	6%	2%	7%	4%	872 L
AZ	07-11	Public Policy Polling	R +8	52%	44%	0%	0%	4%	4%	596 L
WI	07-10	North Star Opinion Research	R +1	48%	47%	0%	0%	5%	4%	600 L
WI	05-13	Morning Consult	R +8	49%	41%	0%	0%	10%	4%	693 L
NC	05-13	Morning Consult	R +10	50%	40%	0%	0%	10%	4%	704 R
NV	05-13	Morning Consult	R +3	47%	44%	0%	0%	9%	5%	459 L
MI	05-13	Morning Consult	R +3	47%	44%	0%	0%	9%	4%	704 L
OH	03-11	OH Northern Univ.	R +13	51%	38%	0%	0%	11%	3%	1,241 L
NV	02-19	Emerson College	R +9	48%	39%	0%	0%	13%	3%	1,000 L
NC	02-16	Emerson College	R +9	50%	41%	0%	0%	9%	3%	1,000 L
GA	02-16	Emerson College	R +10	51%	41%	0%	0%	8%	3%	1,000 L
TX	01-24	YouGov	R +13	52%	39%	0%	0%	9%	3%	1,500 R
CA	11-14	Emerson College	D +9	38%	47%	0%	0%	15%	3%	1,000 L
PA	11-03	NYT / Siena	R +3	47%	44%	0%	2%	7%	4%	600 L
NV	11-03	NYT / Siena	R +8	50%	42%	0%	0%	8%	4%	611 L
AZ	11-03	NYT / Siena	R +5	48%	43%	0%	0%	9%	4%	603 L
TX	05-17	Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	R +7	46%	39%	0%	6%	9%	3%	1,000 L
UT	01-01	Y2 Analytics	R +15	48%	33%	0%	15%	5%	7%	144 L

Links

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