Election 2009 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2009-06-22 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	1
Rep	1
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	1
Ind	0
Tos	1
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	-1
Rep	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

My analysis Corzine survives
McDonnell compassionate conservatives wins.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: tmthforu94 (D-MO) 2009-06-23 @ 13:29:24
What led you believe this, as current polling shows Corzine losing by double digits, while McDonnell and Deeds are in a dogfight in Virginia? Last Edit: 2009-06-23 @ 13:29:38

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-06-25 @ 10:24:49
New Jersey doesn't need a Forrester republican clone in Cristie. The only polling done so far is not from Survey USA. I am willing to wait until they come out with a poll certifying the other previous polls. Also, in September, labor gets out its vote and they are enthustiac yet. I am willing to wait. Last Edit: 2009-06-25 @ 11:11:46

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-08-03 @ 13:36:14
Public policy polling: Christie +14 Quinnipiac: Christie +12 Rasmussen: Christie +12 Sorry to say so, but time to get real... Don't know whether the guy Christie is any good, or even better than Corzine (including morally), but odds are he'll win.

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-08-04 @ 10:27:23
Yes, I was thinking in terms of power of incumbancy in NJ. And the money that Corzine did have. It seems that the money is not there anymore do to the economy and lack of fundraising ability. But I would like to see a Research 2000 poll before dealing a final blow to Corzine. Last Edit: 2009-08-04 @ 10:49:33

By: cnbpjb (--GA) 2009-08-05 @ 08:11:02
The new Monmouth University poll has Christie: +14 I agree, not necessarily a good idea to write Corzine off just yet. (But it's not looking good). If only because if the economy is seen as improving closer to the election day, the voters in New Jersey might not want to take out a close allie to Obama so soon after 2008. I don't think the power of the incumbancy will play as big of role in the New Jersey race.

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-08-08 @ 05:50:22
I think incumbency is even hurting Corzine. His job approval numbers are a drag on his campaign. Still, though we can't be sure how things will turn out, I think his abysmal polling is enough to predict a Republican victory, albeit by default.

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-08-08 @ 11:02:49
What I was saying before Lt.Governors aren't the sole reason as to victory but they are reason for losing as the case of Birkett concerning Judy Baar Topinka. It remains to be seen as to whether Weinberg can help Corzine's polls. Christie's Lt. hasn't hurt him. I am hoping Wienberg helps pickup some votes for corzine at the end.

By: cnbpjb (--GA) 2009-11-01 @ 21:23:15
Well, I have to admit, I think I will have to maybe eat my hat from earlier -- election day is still 2 days off -- but I think Corzine may pull it out and keep the Governor of NJ w/ 3rd party candidate Doggett in the race. I think both parties will have some things to crow about on this election day -- but I think if the Dems hold NJ things aren't as good for the GOP as they think they are & aren't as bad for the Dems as some in the national media are making it out to be. Christie also hasn't helped himself since the summertime.

By: cnbpjb (--GA) 2009-11-08 @ 11:03:28
I am surprised that Doggett's campaign fell apart at the ballot booth. Christie won in NJ, but by appearing more moderate from the rest of the GOP. People were more or less tired of Corzine. I don't think that necessarily bodes ill for Obama. I think Christie may have a tough time in Trenton, since now the NJ state Senate stayed in Democratic hands & in the General Assembly the Democrats look like they went down only 1 seat from 48 D 32 R to 47 D 33 R. Not good #1's for Christie to make a lot of leeways to create too much anti-Democratic moves. It will be interesting to see in 2011 what happens in the NJ legislative races, but I predict that in 2013 that Christie is a one-term Governor. The other interesting thing is besides New Jersey Governor/Lieutenant Governor race, Virginia overall and slightly in the Maine election on the gay marriage issue, overall the GOP didn't have as a big of night as is being crowed about. (I separate NY's mayor race w/ Bloomberg in a separate category). Besides the NY, 23, Democrats did fairly well - if not almost outstandingly in almost of the local elections that were going on (except for Atlanta & Houston, although even that wasn't that bad for the Dems). So, the spin over the GOP wins is more bloated than it should be & I think the loss in NY, 23rd might be even more worrisome for the GOP if the economy starts to revive before Nov. 2010 (even more) or if some national crises emerges where Obama more than rises to the occasion.

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-11-09 @ 12:10:09
I thought it was a realignment election only and Corzine would have survived. But it was also an anti incumbant mood. Codey would have possibly beat Christie and I regret that he didn't run. Maybe in the next 4 years when Christie is seen as more corrupt as Corzine, which I believe he will, the voters will throw him out as well.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	25	22	108	T	115
2022 Senate	25/35	12/35	37/70	52.9%	271	0	298	T	305
2022 Governor	27/36	14/36	41/72	56.9%	281	0	265	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	11	41	48	T	118
2020 President	45/56	26/56	71/112	63.4%	443	5	670	T	684
2020 Senate	24/35	8/35	32/70	45.7%	339	3	422		423
2020 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	127	5	264	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	61	4	104	T	192
2018 Senate	28/35	15/35	43/70	61.4%	201	1	417	T	483
2018 Governor	29/36	13/36	42/72	58.3%	212	3	330	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	1	99	98	T	149
2016 President	47/56	20/56	67/112	59.8%	337	3	597	T	678
2016 Senate	26/34	12/34	38/68	55.9%	344	2	352	T	362
2016 Governor	7/12	5/12	12/24	50.0%	127	3	164	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	72	0	57	T	112
2014 Senate	28/36	12/36	40/72	55.6%	435	0	337	T	382
2014 Governor	25/36	6/36	31/72	43.1%	402	0	293	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	19	1	98	T	153
2012 President	55/56	25/56	80/112	71.4%	291	1	681	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	19/33	50/66	75.8%	171	1	111	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	4/11	15/22	68.2%	103	1	131	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	29/52	8/52	37/104	35.6%	116	-	121	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	18	186	12	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	15/37	49/74	66.2%	281	1	242	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	8/37	42/74	56.8%	280	1	230	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	26	40	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	29/56	81/112	72.3%	129	1	474	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	16/33	49/66	74.2%	95	1	144	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	39	3	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	47/52	20/52	67/104	64.4%	55	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	39/49	14/49	53/98	54.1%	23	-	36	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	8	24	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	117	0	20	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	114	0	10	T	312
2004 President	51/56	31/56	82/112	73.2%	167	1	1036	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	833/994	407/994	1240/1988	62.4%

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