PredictionsEndorse2009 Gubernatorial Predictions - nyquil_man (D-AR) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2009-10-29 Version:2

Prediction Map
nyquil_man MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
nyquil_man MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
2 |
2 |
50 |
Dem1
 
pie
Rep1
 
Ind0
 
Non48
 

Confidence States Won
2 |
2 |
50 |
Dem0
 
pie
Rep1
 
Ind0
 
Tos1
 
Non48
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0000-1-1101-1
Rep0+1+1000000+1
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
211
piepiepie

Analysis

New Jersey:

Corzine - 42.7%
Christie - 40.7%
Daggett - 15.9%

I'm not yet convinced that Daggett will perform this well. His numbers appear to be starting to decline. If this is anything like a typical NJ election, I'd expect Corzine to win by a slightly larger margin, perhaps as much as 4-5 points.

Virginia:

McDonnell - 57.6%
Deeds - 42.3%

Deeds is headed for a king-sized thumpin', no two ways about it.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: cnbpjb (--GA) 2009-11-01 @ 21:01:33
I agree with your overall analysis, although not sure about your #'s in either state.

I do like your name you use for your map though. A very humorous one.
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 5 56T103
P 2008 President 53/56 43/56 96/112 85.7% pie 25 0 74T1,505
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 27/33 60/66 90.9% pie 5 0 3T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 29/36 64/72 88.9% pie 5 0 6T312
P 2004 President 49/56 35/56 84/112 75.0% pie 3 65 834T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 171/183 135/183 306/366 83.6% pie


Back to 2009 Gubernatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved