Date of Prediction: 2016-01-26 Version:8
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I've been reluctant to do this, but I've switched Iowa to a Trump victory. He is leading according to the polls there and his lead seems to be expanding, and there also seems to be a concerted effort going on to destroy Cruz. I still think it will be closer than the polls are likely to suggest, due to Cruz's turnout operation, but I think Trump pulls off a narrow victory. I've also added a prediction for the Washington caucuses, though I think it would be better for us to predict the May primary there, since that is when the delegates will actually be allocated. Are the caucuses even holding a presidential preference poll? I've seen conflicting answers on this, so it is possible that the prediction there is completely meaningless. Aside from all of that, I have no idea what is going on there in the campaign, but my gut instinct is that it is a state Cruz would do well in. I'l be posting either one or two more predictions before Iowa votes, depending on how rapidly things develop over the next few days.
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