Date of Prediction: 2016-02-05 Version:10
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Still trying to figure out what to make of the Iowa result. Right now we don't have an answer to whether Donald Trump's weak ground game/the other candidates' stronger ground games will primarily be a problem for Trump in caucus states, as it seems to have been in Iowa, or if it is going to be a problem in primaries as well. Either way, Marco Rubio is clearly beginning to consolidate the support of establishment voters, which gives his chances a substantial boost, including in New Hampshire and South Carolina. As such, they are now tossups, though I am still keeping Trump in the lead in both for now. I also now have Rubio leading in Nevada, a state that has always seemed likely to his best among the early contests. Washington goes back to an undecided status since it seems we are now predicting the primary there, rather than the caucus.
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