Predictions2020 Presidential Predictions - Spark498 (D-PA) Polls
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Date of Prediction: 2019-12-13 Version:21

Prediction Map
Spark498 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Spark498 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem210
 
Rep328
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem194
 
Rep259
 
Ind0
 
Tos85
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-40-22171210-22
Rep+40+22000304306+22
Ind0000000000


Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 20

Trump leads Sanders in most battleground states:<br /> <br /> Projections-<br /> <br /> AZ: Trump 51-46<br /> CO: Sanders 52-45<br /> IA: Trump 51-45<br /> GA: Trump 52-45<br /> NC: Trump 51-46<br /> NH: Sanders 52-46<br /> NV: Sanders 51-47<br /> MI: Trump 51-48<br /> ME: Sanders 55-45<br /> MN: Sanders 50-47<br /> OH: Trump 53-44<br /> PA: Trump 50-48<br /> TX: Trump 54-43<br /> VA: Trump 50-49<br /> WI: Trump 52-47<br />


Version: 19

Trump 50%, Sanders 48%


Version: 18

Sanders 50<br />rnTrump 47


Version: 15

An optimistic Buttigieg vs Trump scenario


Version: 11

Trump 48%, Warren 49%<br /> <br /> Warren struggles with the diverse electorates in VA, NV but selects a runningmate to compensate for the weakness.<br /> <br /> Trump maxes out margins in rural areas in states like MN, WI, MI, PA. He retains his margin with independents and wins over blue-collar voters again.<br /> <br /> Warren does best with women, college-educateds, and older voters.


Version: 10

Trump v Warren


Version: 9

Trump vs Biden


Version: 8

Trump trounces everyone but Biden.


Version: 3

Harris vs Trump.<br />rn<br />rnA spike in AA turnout delivers the Midwest back to the Dems.


Version: 2

Biden vs Trump - Biden is able to win back PA due to performing better with blue collar workers around Scranton. However, he still struggles to energize the AA community and suffers from depressed turnout to fall short.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 289
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 121
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 96
P 2019 Governor /3 /3 /6 % pie 191
P 2018 Senate 32/35 16/35 48/70 68.6% pie 6 4 306T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 19/36 52/72 72.2% pie 10 6 189T372
P 2017 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 3 2 98T149
P 2016 President 51/56 32/56 83/112 74.1% pie 104 1 114T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 14/34 46/68 67.6% pie 28 1 252T362
P 2016 Governor 7/12 4/12 11/24 45.8% pie 9 1 223T279
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 1 93 72T112
Aggregate Predictions 157/178 87/178 244/356 68.5% pie


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