PredictionsMock2020 Presidential Predictions - Spark498 (D-PA) Polls
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Date of Prediction: 2019-12-13 Version:21

Prediction Map
Spark498 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Spark498 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem210
 
Rep328
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem194
 
Rep259
 
Ind0
 
Tos85
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-40-22171210-22
Rep+40+22000304306+22
Ind0000000000


Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 80

Trump/Pence vs Biden/Harris


Version: 77

Trump/Pence vs Biden/Whitmer


Version: 69

Biden will struggle to win NV and FL if he remains at 60% with Hispanic voters especially if turnout is low overall.<br /> <br /> Trump is beginning to rebound slightly.


Version: 66

Trump needs to slow the coronavirus or he risks losing retirees in FL. His polling looks like it is improving in AZ and state trends favor him there. A split Rust Belt favors him as well. It will become increasingly difficult for him to win over college educated voters. Trump has to hope for lower turnout across the board even among minorities and an increase in non college voter support to win. He needs to cut into Biden's lead to tighten things up by Labor Day or risks losing his re-election bid.


Version: 60

Biden marginally improves over Clinton's margin. I expect there not to be a second wave of COVID and for the economy to recover significantly by election day. There probably will be some sort of October surprise helping Trump. Biden also will fail to withstand the media's onslaught.


Version: 56

Trump going to rebound due to being "law and order" candidate to calm race riots due to death of George Floyd. <br /> <br /> Biden is consistently polling lower than Clinton at 47%.


Version: 46

Trump down in polling due to overexposure in the media through his COVID briefings and misstatements. Needs to rebound ASAP.


Version: 28

Sanders/Sinema defeats Trump/Pence. <br /> <br /> Sanders 51%, Trump 47%


Version: 20

Trump leads Sanders in most battleground states:<br /> <br /> Projections-<br /> <br /> AZ: Trump 51-46<br /> CO: Sanders 52-45<br /> IA: Trump 51-45<br /> GA: Trump 52-45<br /> NC: Trump 51-46<br /> NH: Sanders 52-46<br /> NV: Sanders 51-47<br /> MI: Trump 51-48<br /> ME: Sanders 55-45<br /> MN: Sanders 50-47<br /> OH: Trump 53-44<br /> PA: Trump 50-48<br /> TX: Trump 54-43<br /> VA: Trump 50-49<br /> WI: Trump 52-47<br />


Version: 19

Trump 50%, Sanders 48%


Version: 18

Sanders 50<br />rnTrump 47


Version: 15

An optimistic Buttigieg vs Trump scenario


Version: 11

Trump 48%, Warren 49%<br /> <br /> Warren struggles with the diverse electorates in VA, NV but selects a runningmate to compensate for the weakness.<br /> <br /> Trump maxes out margins in rural areas in states like MN, WI, MI, PA. He retains his margin with independents and wins over blue-collar voters again.<br /> <br /> Warren does best with women, college-educateds, and older voters.


Version: 10

Trump v Warren


Version: 9

Trump vs Biden


Version: 8

Trump trounces everyone but Biden.


Version: 3

Harris vs Trump.<br />rn<br />rnA spike in AA turnout delivers the Midwest back to the Dems.


Version: 2

Biden vs Trump - Biden is able to win back PA due to performing better with blue collar workers around Scranton. However, he still struggles to energize the AA community and suffers from depressed turnout to fall short.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 525
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 293
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 202
P 2019 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 2 6 35T192
P 2018 Senate 32/35 16/35 48/70 68.6% pie 6 4 306T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 19/36 52/72 72.2% pie 10 6 189T372
P 2017 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 3 2 98T149
P 2016 President 51/56 32/56 83/112 74.1% pie 104 1 114T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 14/34 46/68 67.6% pie 28 1 252T362
P 2016 Governor 7/12 4/12 11/24 45.8% pie 9 1 223T279
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 1 93 72T112
Aggregate Predictions 159/181 89/181 248/362 68.5% pie


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