Final prediction. There are a lot of states that straddle the line between two levels of popular vote. Georgia is 50.01% Biden, Nebraska's Second Congressional District is 49.97% Biden, North Carolina is 50.002% Trump, Oregon is 59.98% Biden, and Wyoming is 70.01% Trump. All of my predictions were made based on 538's model but adjusted based on their model's errors in 2012 and 2016. Something that I should have done but just didn't have the time or energy to do was adjust for errors in their percentage of the third party vote.<br /> <br /> Lean Biden overall, he wins 53.3% to 45.4%.<br /> <br /> Closest States:<br /> Arizona goes 49.7% to 49.0% Biden.<br /> Florida goes 50.6% to 48.7% Biden.<br /> Georgia goes 50.0% to 49.2% Biden.<br /> Iowa goes 51.0% to 47.4% Trump.<br /> ME-02 goes 50.6% to 47.8% Trump.<br /> NE-02 goes 50.0% to 48.8% Biden.<br /> North Carolina goes 50.0% to 49.3% Trump.<br /> Ohio goes 51.6% to 47.4% Trump.<br /> Pennsylvania goes 50.7% to 48.6% Biden.<br /> Texas goes 50.1% to 49.0% Trump.

Continued movement towards Biden three days out. Trump goes from >60% to >70% in West Virginia but dips back below 50% in North Carolina. Lean Biden overall 53.2% to 45.6%. The three closest states are North Carolina (Trump leads 49.8% to 49.5%), Georgia (Biden leads 50.0% to 49.3%), and Arizona (Biden leads 49.8% to 48.9%).

Large movements in favor of Biden over the past two days for this five day out update. While North Carolina does move from >40% Trump to >50% Trump, both Wisconsin and Minnesota move from tossup to lean Biden (as well as Georgia completely flipping his way). The race is still lean Biden overall, 53.2% to 45.5%, with the three closest states being Arizona (Biden wins 49.6% to 49.1%), Georgia (Biden wins 49.9% to 49.4%), and North Carolina (Trump wins 50.0% to 49.2%).

Lean Biden overall, 53.2% to 45.6%. The three closest states are Arizona (Biden leads Trump 49.6% to 49.1%), North Carolina (Trump leads Biden 49.9% to 49.4%), and Georgia (Trump leads Biden 50.0% to 49.2%)

Georgia goes from >40% Republican to >50% Republican. Lean Biden overall, 53.1% to 45.6%. The three closest states are Arizona (Biden wins 49.5% to 49.2%), North Carolina (Trump wins 50.0% to 49.3%), and Georgia (Trump wins 50.1% to 49.1%).

No change from two days ago, lean Biden overall 53.2% to 45.5%. The three closest states are North Carolina (Trump wins 49.9% to 49.4%), Georgia (Trump wins 49.9% to 49.3%), and Arizona (Biden wins 49.7% to 49.0%).

Minnesota goes from lean Biden to tossup again, even as the race remains lean Biden overall (Biden wins 53.2% to 45.5%). The three closest states are North Carolina (Trump wins 49.8% to 49.4%), Georgia (Trump wins 50.0% to 49.2%), and Arizona (Biden wins 49.8% to 48.9%).

Just a quick update, the only change on the map is Utah going from >60% Republican to >50%. Lean Biden nationally 53.3% to 45.5%. The three closest states are North Carolina (Trump wins 49.8% to 49.4%), Georgia (Trump wins 49.9% to 49.3%), and Arizona (Biden wins 49.7% to 49.0%).

Minor changes across the board, mostly favoring Biden. While Mississippi goes back to safe Republican, ME-02 drops to a tossup and Minnesota goes up to lean Democrat. Lean Biden overall, 53.2% to 45.6%. The three closest states are Arizona (Biden leads 49.6% to 49.1%), North Carolina (Trump leads 49.9% to 49.3%), and Georgia (Trump leads 49.9% to 49.3%).

Update because I'm feeling antsy. The only change is West Virginia going from R>70 to R>60. DC also went from D>80 to D>90, but that is because of an error in my numbers switching Delaware's error with DC's and not because of an actual change in what I think will happen. Lean Biden overall, 53.1% to 45.6%. The three closest states are Arizona (Biden 49.6% to 49.1%), North Carolina (Trump 50.0% to 49.2%), and Georgia (Trump 50.4% to 48.8%).

Updated map from a few days ago, no topline differences but Iowa goes from lean R to tossup and ME-02 goes from tossup to lean R. Still lean Biden overall, he wins 53.0% to 45.7%. Closest states are Arizona (Biden wins 49.5% to 49.2%), North Carolina (Trump wins 50.2% to 49.1%), and Georgia (Trump wins 50.4% to 48.8%).

As before, this is based off of 538's model, but I decided to go back and look at their errors for the past two presidential cycles and offset their numbers by those amounts. This might be getting too fancy with the numbers, but I know that 538 has biases and this might help get them out. I did not adjust 538's percentages for third party candidates, only for the main two. Additionally, accommodation was made for the trends over the past several months. Overall, the election is still lean Biden (52.6% to 46.1%). The three closest states are Arizona (Biden wins 49.4% to 49.3%), Florida (Biden wins 50.2% to 49%), and North Carolina (Trump wins 50.7% to 48.6%).

Biden wins 52.2% to Trump's 46.5%

Updated for better trends. Trump gains 0.8% and Biden drops 0.8%. Biden wins the popular vote 52.0% to 46.7%. Election in lean Biden overall.

Fairly simple since I'm short on time. I used 538's current model output and then adjusted Trump up by 1.1% and Biden down by 1.1%. Biden gets 51.6% of the vote to Trump's 47.1% for a 4.5% margin. Making this more so I have something to refer back to or, if I forget, something at all. Margins also indicate tossup, lean, and safe races. More than 10 points is safe, more than 5 is lean, less than that is tossup.