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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-03 Version:39
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 112)
Analysis
Last second flip flop giving Florida to Biden and Georgia to Trump. Probably the more likely scenario
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 38 Final prediction. I am nervous. Version: 37 I have a gut feeling ME-02 goes for Biden, even in an election where NC and GA narrowly go to Trump. Version: 36 It would be awesome for Biden to fulfill the 413 fantasy but I don't think it's gonna happen. With a week and change before the election, it's time to be a bit more... confident with my confidence map. While the polls say TX, OH and IA are close, I'd say the odds of Biden flipping those are the same as Trump's odds of flipping NH, ME or VA: virtually nonexistent. Wisconsin is a state I'm reluctant to put in the lean category because of voter suppression and it being the state most at odds with polling in 2016 but I'm gonna go with it. As for Nevada, that remains lean D because it could be the Wisconsin of 2020. Even Trafalgar thinks Biden will win there so I'll probably change that next time. My brain says Biden will win the election but my gut says Trump. Version: 35 Imagine how stressful such an election would be... Especially with it likely taking a few days to count the votes anyway. Tipping point here would of course be AZ, with both it and PA being decided by under a point.<br /> <br /> Biden obviously has a higher ceiling than Trump but there are a lot of reasons to be nervous. Version: 34 I've been reluctant to put Wisconsin in Biden's column due to voter suppression. While that's going to be a factor, he's polled extremely well there and I don't expect them to be wrong about it like they were in 2016.<br /> <br /> Of course all bets are off when it comes to the election itself. Hopefully we get something which resembles a normal election, but it's hard not to have a sense of impending doom. Version: 33 I go back and forth with this election. Biden continues to do well in the polls. These are the two worst candidates I've ever seen run on major party tickets, but right now I' m giving Sleepy Joe the edge due to how horrible everything is right now. He's got my vote, but I do live in a state where voting is so easy you might as well. Version: 32 I go back and forth about who I think wins this election. It looked like Biden was on track for a landslide due to COVID, but the democrats are trying the exact same strategies that failed in 2016. There is little enthusiasm for the democratic ticket because very few people believe that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have any sort of vision for this country or will do anything to improve people's lives. Their entire selling point is that they aren't Trump. That's good enough for me - Biden is the lesser of two evils, but it's hard to see the Dems getting out the vote enough to win this election. Making matters worse are voter suppression efforts which I do think will be enough to swing a few states.<br /> <br /> The toughest state to call is Minnesota. The Democrats (and their mouthpieces at CNN and MSNBC) might lose Biden this state with their blatant gaslighting and endorsement of the riots. I do maintain that even in a loss NE-2 and Arizona flip to Biden, barely. Version: 31 This is going to be a very close election. Polling and the overall situation favor Biden but in the twenty years I've been following elections, the candidate with a less enthusiastic base has always lost. This election is a referendum on Trump, but given the efforts to curb voting and how the Dems are content to run back their failed 2016 strategy, I am not at all confident. Right now, I do think Biden wins narrowly, Arizona being the tipping point state. Version: 26 Closest D states: Pennsylvania > Michigan > Arizona, Closest R states: New Hampshire > North Carolina > Wisconsin Version: 25 I keep going back and forth with this election. At first I thought this virus was going to guarantee Biden the election, and it still might. But I fear that all his problems will really hurt him once the campaign heats up this summer. Perhaps the rhetoric about reopening the country prematurely will blow up in Trump's face when the MAGA states get a resurgence of cases, but we shall see. Version: 24 I'm surprised more people aren't picking Biden to win NC. I think he's got a better chance there than Florida Version: 23 Biden/Harris: 290 EV, 50% PV<br /> Trump/Pence: 248 EV, 47% PV Version: 21 This Coronavirus catastrophe has me convinced that, for the first time, Trump could lose. Unfortunately it's Biden but oh well. Version: 20 Trump / Pence (293 EV | 48% PV) vs. Biden / Klobuchar (245 EV | 47% PV) Version: 19 Trump / Pence - 291 EV's | 48% PV<br /> Biden / Klobuchar - 247 EV's | 47% PV<br /> <br /> A week ago it looked like Bernie was running away with the nomination, now Biden emerges as the overwhelming favorite. Sleepy Joe is straight out of central casting for guys who lose to incumbents. Perhaps incumbency isn't so much an advantage as parties tending to nominate "safe" candidates and making the election all about unseating the president, rather than any real vision of the future.<br /> <br /> I'm not saying Bernie would win - he's even older than Biden, has extremely polarizing views and would likely be an ineffective president if he got there. But he's the only candidate able to rival the enthusiasm behind Trump's campaign. When Biden inevitably loses after Stockdale-esque debate performances and abysmal voter turnout, the establishment will point blame at Russia, the "Bernie Bros", perhaps the Coronavirus.. But the reality is they'll have lost because they're a party that stands for nothing, and offers nothing but an alternative to Trump. And I'll probably vote for them.<br /> <br /> People don't read the commentary on these predictions any more, which is probably a good thing in this case. I just trashed Biden and his electability, but I do think it will be close regardless because of how polarized the country is. I think Biden would do better than Bernie in the electoral college, but that Bernie would actually win the popular vote, which of course doesn't count. Version: 18 Trump/Pence vs. Sanders/Abrams Version: 17 Trump / Pence: 293 EV's, 45% PV<br /> Sanders / Abrams: 245 EV's, 44% PV<br /> Some Centrist: 0 EV's, 8% PV Version: 15 At some point you start to wonder if the Democratic party's plan is to just tank this election so they can retake the Senate in 2022. Version: 14 Trump / Pence: 326 EV, 49% PV<br /> Biden / Harris: 212 EV, 47% PV<br /> <br /> It looks more and more like a second Trump term is inevitable. The Democrats don't have a unified message or an electable candidate. I'll hold my nose to vote for Biden because he's not Trump, but that's about the only reason. I just don't think that's going to be good enough to win the election. Version: 13 Trump/Pence: 292 EV | 48.5% PV<br /> Biden/Klobuchar: 246 EV | 48% PV Version: 12 Not very interesting, just 2016 with the Dems narrowly taking Pennsylvania. I find it interesting that Trump is trailing in all of the Georgia polls. While I'm not ready to put it in the D column here, I do think that the likelihood of there being a legitimate shift a la Virginia in 2008 is enough to make it a toss-up state for now. Version: 11 Biden vs. Trump. Closest states are Michigan, Maine and Minnesota, with Arizona as the tipping point Version: 10 Biden vs. Trump<br /> <br /> I think Biden would have a better chance against Trump than Warren, and with Warren's recent slide I'll use Biden as the Dem nominee for now. Georgia as a swing state is probably far-fetched, especially with NC and FL being learn R but we'll see if Trump keeps trailing there. Version: 8 Trump vs. Warren. Still have a hard time seeing how Warren could win this election. She may be able to get enough moderates and progressives to get through the primary, but I don't see her getting enough support in the general. Personally, I think Sanders and Yang are the only ones who would beat Trump, but part of me thinks they'd get destroyed. Biden would be Hillary but less competent, while Buttigieg seems more like a VP choice at this point. Version: 6 Trump vs. Warren<br /> <br /> It's a very narrow path for Warren unless she can be competitive in states like Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. Otherwise, WI, PA and MI are absolute must-wins. Version: 5 Trump vs. Warren Version: 4 Trump/Pence 296 EV (48% PV)<br /> Warren/Castro 242 EV (49% PV)<br /> <br /> It's a tough road for the Dems if they can't all four of MN, PA, MI and WI. Picking up AZ would help, but NC, FL and especially TX seem out of reach. Version: 3 Trump vs. Warren... Same EV result, different states Version: 2 Trump vs. Warren; popular vote a virtual tie. While I don't think Biden would be a great candidate either, I have serious doubts about Warren's electability. Even against someone as bad as Trump, her polarizing views and lack of charisma make it hard to see her winning. Unless she can somehow steal states like FL, NC or OH, she'd pretty much need to sweep the swing states, which I don't see happening. Version: 1 First it was Florida, then it was Ohio, now it's all about Pennsylvania...<br /> <br /> It's hard to make predictions given that we have no idea who the democratic nominee will be. Just couldn't resist. <br /> <br /> Regardless of who the nominee is, I expect Trump will win once again. It'll be close, but I can't see him doing any worse in terms of the popular vote. I think MI and WI go back to the Dems but MN, ME and NH are very shaky.
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