President Trump will far outperform his 2016 result on the strength of a combination of GOP election day turnout, greater support from the Latino vote and a breakthrough share of the black vote not seen in years. The GOP ground game to get out the vote will work. It will far outperform any efforts by the Democrats because the Democrats focused almost entirely on mail in ballots, which appear to be underperforming. Joe Biden is NOT an inspirational candidate and he's the "not-Trump" candidate. The Dems scared their voters with Covid-19 fears, making it harder for them to field a GOTV effort.