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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-02 Version:8

Prediction Map
paxamericana MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
paxamericana MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem258
 
Rep280
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem222
 
Rep234
 
Ind0
 
Tos82
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+20+26000211232+26
Rep000-20-26284280-26
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
95484043
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

11/02: One day out, hard to believe it is so close. This prediction has always been based on a gut feeling, and I have a gut feeling Biden will flip WI. However, as many people have been pointing out, the key to Trump's victory is Pennsylvania. I still believe he will pull it off. The popular vote will likely break somewhere between 3 to 5 points to Biden with a surge of support in deep-blue states pushing him over Clinton's popular vote margins, yet like Clinton, failing to manifest in an electoral college victory.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 30/35 20/35 50/70 71.4% pie 1 191 266T305
P 2020 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 8 6 179T684
P 2020 Senate 33/35 21/35 54/70 77.1% pie 1 148 101T423
Aggregate Predictions 115/126 84/126 199/252 79.0% pie


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