Election 2020 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-02 Version:3

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	351
Rep	187
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	279
Rep	125
Ind	0
Tos	134

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+7	+2	+119	0	0	0	21	1	232	+119
Rep	0	0	0	-7	-2	-119	23	2	187	-119
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
96	49	41	4	2

Analysis

I haven't had much time to update the map this year, I've probably got something a little wonky in the percentages that I haven't noticed yet. Final prediction I expect. I've moved Georgia from tossup leaning Trump to tossup leaning Biden, no other substantive changes. While I don't believe the Selzer poll in Iowa, I expect Trump to win narrowly, hoping for Ohio, Iowa, and Texas to all go Biden, but not necessarily expecting any of them.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%	3	6	130	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	20/35	50/70	71.4%	2	4	274	T	423
2016 President	48/56	29/56	77/112	68.8%	2	25	369	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	2	0	164	T	362
2014 Senate	31/36	18/36	49/72	68.1%	3	6	231	T	382
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	4	14	47	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	17/33	48/66	72.7%	6	8	144	T	343
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	12	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	22/37	57/74	77.0%	3	0	91	T	312
2008 President	54/56	38/56	92/112	82.1%	13	1	178	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	18/33	51/66	77.3%	7	1	96	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	86	T	264
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	20/33	53/66	80.3%	25	3	88	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	11/36	45/72	62.5%	3	15	207	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	512/549	330/549	842/1098	76.7%

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