Predictions2024 Presidential Predictions - darthpi (D-PA) Polls
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Date of Prediction: 2024-02-05 Version:3

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem260
 
Rep278
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem225
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
Tos78
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem0+1+1-40-43221259-42
Rep+40+430-1-1253235+42
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Really, really did not want to make this map, but the facts are what they are. Biden's polling situation remains dire and there has yet to be meaningful movement in his direction over the last three months. There has been perhaps a slight shift in the national head-to-head polling in the last month - with Biden having bottomed out in late December - but it's marginal and hard to distinguish from typical polling noise, so I'm not reading into it for now. And while the fundamentals still suggest to me this is a *winnable* election for Biden - the economic numbers look increasingly good and that is finally starting to trickle over into better consumer sentiment - I'm not convinced either his campaigning or his governing are going to able to swing enough undecided voters toward backing him by November. Biden's best hope at this point - and it is a substantial source of hope - is that the RNC and the state Republican parties are almost uniformly having terrible fundraising, so the Democrats may be able to simply dominate in advertising and direct voter outreach in a way that Trump cannot effectively counter. Contrarily, Trump's many legal troubles seem less likely to be determinative in the election than the previously did, as a number of Republican judges have been allowing delays that will likely push convictions in anything other than the New York trial until after the election is over.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 225
P 2022 Senate 32/35 25/35 57/70 81.4% pie 6 1 124T305
P 2022 Governor 34/36 29/36 63/72 87.5% pie 6 1 11T272
P 2020 President 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie 18 6 359T684
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 589/649 421/649 1010/1298 77.8% pie


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