Predictions2024 Presidential Predictions - darthpi (D-PA) Polls
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Date of Prediction: 2024-07-05 Version:6

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem209
 
Rep329
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem191
 
Rep268
 
Ind0
 
Tos79
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-90-93171209-93
Rep+90+93000254236+93
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Well. I have stated for quite a while that, while I believed there were a number of fundamentals in this election that seemed good for Joe Biden and the Democrats, the outcome of this election would ultimately hinge on whether or not Biden and his campaign could successfully take advantage of those fundamentals in conveying their message to voters. In the wake of Biden's apocalyptically bad debate performance, it has become clear to me that it is *very* unlikely they will be able to do so. The concerns of the public about Biden's age have been drastically heightened due to Biden's multiple instances of either being unable to finish answering questions during the debate, or drifting off topic to subjects that were not relevant to the question he was asked. While I did not necessarily expect Biden to do well in the debate, I did not expect a performance *that* atrocious, and it has caused me to fundamentally re-evaluate this race. In addition, the relative lack of urgency from Biden's campaign during the week following the debate - including the fact that he still will not be holding any press conference until a week from now - tells me his campaign has absolutely no plan to address voters' justifiable concerns. With as high as 80% of voters in recent polling now suggesting Biden is too old for office, and clear majorities believing he is not sufficiently mentally competent to serve as president, such a campaign has little to no hope of getting any of its messaging regarding the dangers of a second Trump term (or, ironically, messaging around how Trump's own rhetoric seems increasingly rambling and divorced from reality) through to the public. At this moment, "Biden's brain" looks poised to be the "Hillary's emails" of this election, by which I mean the story that will continue recurring constantly through the election to the exclusion of all other - very important! - subjects. I am close to the point, already, of believing that the only realistic path for Democrats this cycle is to force Biden from the race in favor of a new, younger nominee. Under any normal circumstances ejecting a presumptive nominee in July of an election year would be viewed as electoral suicide, but in this instance I think it is the desperation maneuver that may be necessary, particularly given the extremely grave threat of a second, even more lawless Trump presidency empowered by an increasingly radical Supreme Court. I am not certain Harris or any other Democrat would win the election, but I feel someone other than Biden would at least have a fighting chance to change the narrative and force the public to pay attention to the danger Trump presents, whereas it really feels like Biden may no longer have a realistic path to doing so. Lastly, while I had been planning the next update to be on August 5th, if Biden were to withdraw from the race - and I have no real guess as to how likely that possibility is - I would likely post an unscheduled early update in reaction to such a withdrawal.


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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 278
P 2022 Senate 32/35 25/35 57/70 81.4% pie 6 1 124T305
P 2022 Governor 34/36 29/36 63/72 87.5% pie 6 1 11T272
P 2020 President 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie 18 6 359T684
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 589/649 421/649 1010/1298 77.8% pie


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