It is preposterously, obscenely early to be making a 2024 prediction map, but I decided to post one anyway given the fact that I don't expect the primaries will be interesting or particularly competitive. Not really taking this too seriously given how early it is, this is just one scenario that I consider realistic given the assumption that the final election result will be a fairly narrow Biden popular vote win, similar to 2020. I am not expecting Florida, Ohio, or Iowa to be competitive, even though all were within 10% in 2020, because I believe all will trend to the right this cycle. On the other hand, I do think there is a real possibility that Texas and Alaska could end up as Tossups by election day, but until we get substantial state-level polling I plan to leave them both in the Lean/Likely category. Overall, I'm just going to try to avoid letting Beltway punditry get to me too much and influence my predictions in dumb ways like it has in some recent cycles. I'm still frustrated with myself for blowing the Senate race call here in Pennsylvania in 2022 because I was listening to the pundits too much.