Joe Biden narrowly picks up North Carolina, but Donald Trump picks up Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Oregon, and Hawaii (due to Maui fire). Alaska and Kansas are close, but stick with the same parties that win them in 2020, albeit by reduced margins. Joe Biden will also likely win the popular vote in Texas, but Greg Abbott will compel Secretary of State Jane Nelson to certify for Donald Trump under baseless allegations of voter fraud.<br /> <br /> Senate races mirror the Presidential election results with the exception of Maine (Angus King wins reelection), Hawaii (Mazie Hirono wins reelection), and Virginia (Hung Cao narrowly defeats Tim Kaine despite Joe Biden winning Virginia by around 8%). Krysten Sinema also pulls through with a plurality of the vote in the Arizona Senate race. House of Representatives is about a gain of R+15, with all Republican incumbents holding on and the last of the Democratic held seats in the Rust Belt quartet, Southwestern states like New Mexico and Nevada, and Trumpy areas of New England flipping Republican. Congressional Democrats usually run far behind Joe Biden, so it is possible even in states that Joe Biden wins, many House Democrats will go down.