Predictions2024 Presidential Predictions - MATTROSE94 (D-NJ) Polls
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Date of Prediction: 2023-09-06 Version:4

Prediction Map
MATTROSE94 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
MATTROSE94 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem210
 
Rep328
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem194
 
Rep233
 
Ind0
 
Tos111
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+1+1+17-13-1-109130193-92
Rep+13+1+109-1-1-17243219+92
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Joe Biden narrowly picks up North Carolina, but Donald Trump picks up Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Oregon, and Hawaii (due to Maui fire). Alaska and Kansas are close, but stick with the same parties that win them in 2020, albeit by reduced margins. Joe Biden will also likely win the popular vote in Texas, but Greg Abbott will compel Secretary of State Jane Nelson to certify for Donald Trump under baseless allegations of voter fraud.<br /> <br /> Senate races mirror the Presidential election results with the exception of Maine (Angus King wins reelection), Hawaii (Mazie Hirono wins reelection), and Virginia (Hung Cao narrowly defeats Tim Kaine despite Joe Biden winning Virginia by around 8%). Krysten Sinema also pulls through with a plurality of the vote in the Arizona Senate race. House of Representatives is about a gain of R+15, with all Republican incumbents holding on and the last of the Democratic held seats in the Rust Belt quartet, Southwestern states like New Mexico and Nevada, and Trumpy areas of New England flipping Republican. Congressional Democrats usually run far behind Joe Biden, so it is possible even in states that Joe Biden wins, many House Democrats will go down.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 253
P 2022 Senate 28/35 8/35 36/70 51.4% pie 10 11 300305
P 2022 Governor 24/36 6/36 30/72 41.7% pie 4 11 269272
P 2021 Governor 1/2 0/2 1/4 25.0% pie 5 13 111T118
P 2020 President 48/56 21/56 69/112 61.6% pie 37 6 675684
P 2020 Senate 28/35 8/35 36/70 51.4% pie 36 4 421423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 1/11 12/22 54.5% pie 2 17 284T293
P 2018 Senate 31/35 13/35 44/70 62.9% pie 10 9 402T483
P 2018 Governor 30/36 17/36 47/72 65.3% pie 6 11 273T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 114 40T149
P 2016 President 48/56 23/56 71/112 63.4% pie 26 2 552T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 12/34 42/68 61.8% pie 23 2 327T362
P 2016 Governor 8/12 3/12 11/24 45.8% pie 9 1 223T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 1 8T112
P 2014 Senate 34/36 20/36 54/72 75.0% pie 38 5 138T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 14/36 45/72 62.5% pie 30 1 145T300
Aggregate Predictions 356/425 149/425 505/850 59.4% pie


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