Election 2024 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2024-01-18 Version:4

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	245
Rep	293
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	220
Rep	219
Ind	0
Tos	99

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	+1	+1	-5	0	-58	21	1	244	-57
Rep	+5	0	+58	0	-1	-1	25	3	235	+57
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Moved PA back into the democrats column because I don't think the GOP has much room to grow here. Philadelphia in 2020 wasn't great for Biden, and they didn't have any trouble. The rurals are maxed out. The trend in the suburbs favour the Democrats. Biden has a little room to fall in PA but I believe it'll narrowly remain in his column.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	32/35	27/35	59/70	84.3%	4	1	69	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	24/36	58/72	80.6%	3	1	104	T	272
2020 President	54/56	43/56	97/112	86.6%	9	30	103	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	24/35	56/70	80.0%	7	28	44	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	2	87	51	T	293
2018 Senate	35/35	24/35	59/70	84.3%	2	11	4	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	19/36	52/72	72.2%	1	51	189	T	372
2016 President	52/56	32/56	84/112	75.0%	1	38	87	T	678
Aggregate Predictions	283/300	200/300	483/600	80.5%

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