Predictions2024 Presidential Predictions - Lakigigar (C-BEL) Polls
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Date of Prediction: 2024-01-18 Version:4

Prediction Map
Lakigigar MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Lakigigar MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem245
 
Rep293
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem220
 
Rep219
 
Ind0
 
Tos99
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem0+1+1-50-58211244-57
Rep+50+580-1-1253235+57
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Moved PA back into the democrats column because I don't think the GOP has much room to grow here. Philadelphia in 2020 wasn't great for Biden, and they didn't have any trouble. The rurals are maxed out. The trend in the suburbs favour the Democrats. Biden has a little room to fall in PA but I believe it'll narrowly remain in his column.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 230
P 2022 Senate 32/35 27/35 59/70 84.3% pie 4 1 69T305
P 2022 Governor 34/36 24/36 58/72 80.6% pie 3 1 104T272
P 2020 President 54/56 43/56 97/112 86.6% pie 9 30 103T684
P 2020 Senate 32/35 24/35 56/70 80.0% pie 7 28 44T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 2 87 51T293
P 2018 Senate 35/35 24/35 59/70 84.3% pie 2 11 4T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 19/36 52/72 72.2% pie 1 51 189T372
P 2016 President 52/56 32/56 84/112 75.0% pie 1 38 87T678
Aggregate Predictions 283/300 200/300 483/600 80.5% pie


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