Predictions2024 Presidential Predictions - ottermax () Polls
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Date of Prediction: 2023-09-07 Version:2

Prediction Map
ottermax MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
ottermax MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem268
 
Rep270
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem219
 
Rep170
 
Ind0
 
Tos149
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem0+1+1-30-35231267-34
Rep+30+350-1-1253235+34
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Trump popular vote win with a large gain in working class voters of color. Election hinges on turnout by voters of color in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Nevada is the tipping point state.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 275
P 2022 Senate 34/35 26/35 60/70 85.7% pie 1 1 48T305
P 2020 President 55/56 45/56 100/112 89.3% pie 3 6 35T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 23/35 53/70 75.7% pie 3 4 137T423
P 2016 President 52/56 37/56 89/112 79.5% pie 3 1 17T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 2 1 164T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 24 119T279
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 3 224 182T760
P 2012 Senate 26/33 11/33 37/66 56.1% pie 1 246 291T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 47/52 21/52 68/104 65.4% pie 12 - 13T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 23/37 58/74 78.4% pie 6 3 86T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 25/37 60/74 81.1% pie 5 1 45T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 53 41T103
P 2008 President 53/56 44/56 97/112 86.6% pie 17 1 55T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 21/33 53/66 80.3% pie 7 4 57T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 10/11 21/22 95.5% pie 3 15 3T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 48/52 26/52 74/104 71.2% pie 13 - 3T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 40/49 15/49 55/98 56.1% pie 11 - 27T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 174 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 12 4 20T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 15 3 58T312
P 2004 President 52/56 27/56 79/112 70.5% pie 2 6 1285T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 715/774 470/774 1185/1548 76.6% pie


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