Election 2024 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2023-09-07 Version:2

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	268
Rep	270
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	219
Rep	170
Ind	0
Tos	149

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	+1	+1	-3	0	-35	23	1	267	-34
Rep	+3	0	+35	0	-1	-1	25	3	235	+34
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Trump popular vote win with a large gain in working class voters of color. Election hinges on turnout by voters of color in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Nevada is the tipping point state.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	34/35	26/35	60/70	85.7%	1	1	48	T	305
2020 President	55/56	45/56	100/112	89.3%	3	6	35	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	23/35	53/70	75.7%	3	4	137	T	423
2016 President	52/56	37/56	89/112	79.5%	3	1	17	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	2	1	164	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	4/12	13/24	54.2%	1	24	119	T	279
2012 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%	3	224	182	T	760
2012 Senate	26/33	11/33	37/66	56.1%	1	246	291	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	47/52	21/52	68/104	65.4%	12	-	13	T	231
2010 Senate	35/37	23/37	58/74	78.4%	6	3	86	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	25/37	60/74	81.1%	5	1	45	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	53	41	T	103
2008 President	53/56	44/56	97/112	86.6%	17	1	55	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	21/33	53/66	80.3%	7	4	57	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	10/11	21/22	95.5%	3	15	3	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	48/52	26/52	74/104	71.2%	13	-	3	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	40/49	15/49	55/98	56.1%	11	-	27	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	174	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	12	4	20	T	465
2006 Governor	33/36	23/36	56/72	77.8%	15	3	58	T	312
2004 President	52/56	27/56	79/112	70.5%	2	6	1285	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	715/774	470/774	1185/1548	76.6%

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