Election 2024 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2024-04-04 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	245
Rep	293
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	216
Rep	219
Ind	0
Tos	103

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	+1	+1	-5	0	-58	21	1	244	-57
Rep	+5	0	+58	0	-1	-1	25	3	235	+57
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

What will happen 7 months from now? I don't know, and you don't either. This is my best guess at what would happen if Biden and Trump faced off tomorrow. The smallest of polling errors could dramatically change the map. Prediction assumes RFK Jr. is on the ballot in all 50 states and has the best showing of any third party candidate since Perot, which I know is a heck of an assumption. The only thing I know for sure is that the election will be close.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	2	49	T	115
2022 Senate	32/35	27/35	59/70	84.3%	4	1	69	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	30/36	64/72	88.9%	4	1	5	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	3	6	28	T	118
2020 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	6	6	179	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	22/35	54/70	77.1%	3	4	101	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	1	6	10	T	293
2018 Senate	33/35	26/35	59/70	84.3%	3	1	4	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	29/36	62/72	86.1%	1	3	2	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	2	1	T	149
2016 President	50/56	35/56	85/112	75.9%	3	0	66	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	22/34	53/68	77.9%	1	0	16	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	4/12	14/24	58.3%	1	0	67	T	279
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	1	24	72	T	112
2014 Senate	33/36	27/36	60/72	83.3%	3	1	21	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	17/36	48/72	66.7%	3	1	73	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	64	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	7	1	47	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	24/33	56/66	84.8%	7	1	11	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	4	1	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	37/52	16/52	53/104	51.0%	23	-	64	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%	8	0	34	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	28/37	63/74	85.1%	4	0	11	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	5	21	1	T	103
2008 President	54/56	47/56	101/112	90.2%	13	1	6	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	8	1	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	3	1	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	39/52	22/52	61/104	58.7%	20	-	38	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	38/49	21/49	59/98	60.2%	17	-	14		235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	169	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	27/33	58/66	87.9%	7	2	10	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	23/36	58/72	80.6%	8	1	44	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	841/931	620/931	1461/1862	78.5%

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