Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

OMG, Romney won this.

[Lief 🗽]

Lol, what's with the Perry Pocket?

Oh, and lol at the result in general.

The hypothesis is that that part of Iowa is Southern enough that people talk with a twang and say y'all so they voted for Perry because identity politics.

[Iosif]

2012: 30,015 votes, 1st place
2008: 30,021 votes, 2nd place, 9% behind the winner

That's one weak frontrunner.

[doktorb]

"Mitt Romney   30,015   24.6%   
Rick Santorum   30,007   24.5%   
Ron Paul   26,219   21.4%   
Newt Gingrich   16,251   13.3%   
Rick Perry   12,604   10.3%   
Michele Bachmann   6,073   5.0%   
Jon Huntsman   745   0.6%   
Others   341   0.3%

[Thomas D]

Good Lord. Some of you stayed up until all the votes were counted?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Damn, 8 votes?

Honestly, this will be treated as a de facto Santorum victory due to him coming from behind. The question is whether Santorum can capitalize off his gains.

[© tweed]

so Romney underperforms his 25.73% of a few years ago.

[Niemeyerite]

Santorum is the winner of the night!!

Obama may sleep really well tonight.

[minionofmidas]

Honestly, this will be treated as a de facto Santorum victory due to him coming from behind.

And rightly so.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Romney won because he won the most Democratic counties in the state. It's like a mirror image of Hillary's "win all the Republican areas" strategy.

Anyone calculate the results by CD yet?

[Stan]

Santorum + Perry (35%)= Huckabee 2008 (34,5%)
Romney 2012 (25%)= Romney 2008 (25%)
Paul 2012 (21%) = Paul 2008 + McCain 2008 (23%)
Gingrich (13%) = Thompson 2008 (13%)

[Badger]

The REAL final tally: 11 delegates each for Santorum & Romney, 3 for paul (estimated).

That isn't stopping the media from proclaiming this a Romney 'win' though.

Does anyone really believe this close a margin could survive a recount?

[Franzl]

The REAL final tally: 11 delegates each for Santorum & Romney, 3 for paul (estimated).

That isn't stopping the media from proclaiming this a Romney 'win' though.

Does anyone really believe this close a margin could survive a recount?

Well assuming there was no systematic bias benefiting Romney, the probability of him winning a recount would be greater than 50%.

Although sure, treating an 8 vote margin as some kind of amazing mandate is rather silly.

[Lincoln Republican]

OMG, Romney won this.

[pbrower2a]

The REAL final tally: 11 delegates each for Santorum & Romney, 3 for paul (estimated).

That isn't stopping the media from proclaiming this a Romney 'win' though.

Does anyone really believe this close a margin could survive a recount?

There can be no recount. This is not a winner-take-all scenario.

This is effectively a win for Rick Santorum, who won with far-lesser money. Political success, at least on the Right, attracts the money. If investments in politicians are not the usual investments, they can be extremely lucrative. If Santorum can win over the well-heeled and politically-active oil, mining, agribusiness, and munitions industries, he wins the Republican nomination.

As I see it, Santorum faces no meaningful competition from a Christian Protestant fundamentalist. Rick Perry has 'suspended his campaign'. The Opus Dei segment of the Roman Catholic Church (I don't know if he is a member, but he has much the ideology) agrees with most white Protestant fundamentalists on reproductive rights, sexuality, militarism, school prayer, welfare, and corporate power. Republicans who distrust Mitt Romney and cavil at some of the purist Libertarian positions of Ron Paul can easily vote for Rick Santorum  who melds the interests of Corporate America with the harsh values of the Religious Right.

Rick Santorum effectively rebuilds the electoral coalition of George W. Bush.

I may have been wrong in stating that the Republicans cannot hit President Obama from the Right on issues of national defense and foreign policy. Having heard victory speeches by both Romney and Santorum, I am now satisfied that the Republicans can. Aggressive warfare is on the table with these fellows.

[Tender Branson]

There might be a way for Santorum to win this. But first, either Perry or Bachmann or both have to endorse him and he gets a really good result in SC, with Newt further behind. Then Newt drops out and endorses him as well ahead of FL. Otherwise Romney wins pretty clearly and early.

[minionofmidas]

There might be a way for Santorum to win this. But first, either Perry or Bachmann or both have to endorse him

As long as they don't endorse somebody else and attack him viciously in the same breath, he'll get their voters alright. Of course, that's assuming Bachmann had any supporters left outside of Iowa.
Unless Gingrich makes a comeback somehow.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

It's a win for Santorum, but still a loss for my prediction score

[Bacon King]

Allamakee County apparently had six people who voted for Lizard People.

[Bacon King]

Also, compare:

Bachmann votes in Ames straw poll: 4,823
Bachmann votes in Iowa caucus: 6,073

lol

[Simfan34]

Allamakee County apparently had six people who voted for Lizard People.

This could be stolen votes? Can there be a recount? It wouldn't matter.

[Lief 🗽]

Allamakee County apparently had six people who voted for Lizard People.

Voter intent on those is clearly for Romney.

[ilikeverin]

I wasn't sure whether I should make a new thread, because I'm not sure whether I'm going to complete the obvious series that could be made, but here's a map of Iowa counties by what place Perry finished in:



Ida County (the random Perry 2nd place county in Western IA) was weird; they had four candidates who essentially tied for second, with 49, 48, 47, and 46 votes apiece.  Perry happened to have the 49.  In Dickinson County, Perry tied for 3rd with Gingrich; hence the green "T".

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

From what I've seen, it's being pushed as a Santorum victory of sorts. However, much like Huckabee (only worse), I doubt he'll capitalize his gains well in SC. Either Newt or Perry will win South Carolina.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

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